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Gulf Hypoxia Monitoring and Modeling USEPA Office of Research and Development

Goal: Develop a suite of model applications, data products and other tools to - assess and predict the relationships between nutrient loads and hypoxia - quantify sources of error and uncertainty associated with nutrient load reduction targets

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Gulf Hypoxia Monitoring and Modeling USEPA Office of Research and Development

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  1. Goal: Develop a suite of model applications, data products and other tools to - assess and predict the relationships between nutrient loads and hypoxia - quantify sources of error and uncertainty associated with nutrient load reduction targets - forecast the effects of nutrient management actions in the Basin on Gulf hypoxia - provide defensible options to guide restoration and decision-making Gulf Hypoxia Monitoring and ModelingUSEPA Office of Research and Development

  2. June 2003 Hypoxic zone = 4800 km2 Scale = mmol O2/m3/d Gulf Hypoxia Monitoring Surveys Objectives Characterize the spatial and temporal variability in oceanographic state and process variables, including resolution of the seaward and down-plume boundary conditions of the model domain Quantify key processes influencing hypoxia to improve predictive models Develop geo-referenced database to support model development Map shows transect stations and depth contours NRL’s real-time hydrodynamic model (IASONFS) December 2002 March 2003

  3. Gulf Hypoxia Survey and Sampling Approach

  4. Parameter Water Sediment Gulf Hypoxia Water Quality and Sediment Sampling

  5. Global Circulation Model Satellite Data (SST/SSE) Wind Models River Flows Naval Research Lab Gulf-Wide Real-Time Data Assimilating Hydrodynamic Model Constituent Mass loadings Water Quality/ Eutrophication Model Sediment Diagenesis Model Mass Balance Modeling Framework Gulf Hypoxia Numerical Modeling Framework

  6. O2 DIC N P 62 differential equations solved simultaneously quite maddening indeed … Coupled WQ & Sediment Model Atmosphere-water interface O2 and CO2 exchange Light Zoop. N&P&TSS All P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 P6 Pyncnocline Organic matter mineralization O2 DIC N P Sediment Diagenesis Eldridge et al., in prep

  7. Sediment Diagenesis Model and Data Needs Attributes of modeled geochemistry • Differential sinking rates • - Cells < fecal pellets and TSS • OM pools for cells and fecal pellets • - Labile and refractory • TSS has organic and mineral components • Variable C:N:P remineralization rates • - Dynamic OM stoichiometry • N pools depict NO3- and NH4+ • - Nitrification • - Denitrification (NO3- electron acceptor) • Reaction rates are temperature dependent Morse and Eldridge, In Press (Marine Chemistry)

  8. Gulf-Wide Real-Time Data Assimilating Hydrodynamic ModelIntra-Americas Sea Ocean Nowcast/Forecast SystemDeveloped and supported by Naval Research Laboratory, Oceanography Division, Ocean Dynamics and Prediction BranchStennis, MS

  9. Prospects/Issues for Long-Term Monitoring of Gulf Hypoxia by USEPA

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