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Commission for Atmospheric Science World Weather Research Programme

Commission for Atmospheric Science World Weather Research Programme. Alexander Baklanov, Scientific Officer, RES, WMO Sarah Jones, Chair WWRP SSC Paolo Ruti, Chief WWRD, WMO.

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Commission for Atmospheric Science World Weather Research Programme

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  1. Commission for Atmospheric ScienceWorld Weather Research Programme Alexander Baklanov, Scientific Officer, RES, WMO Sarah Jones, Chair WWRP SSC Paolo Ruti, Chief WWRD,WMO Christof Stache/AFP/Getty Images; Marina Shemesh /publicdomainpictures.net; Alexandros Vlachos/EPA; NOAA NWS; NOAA NWS

  2. Societal challenges: a 10y vision • High Impact Weather and its socio-economic effects in the context of global change • Water: Modelling and predicting the water cycle for improved Disaster Risk Reduction and resource management • Urbanization: Research and services for megacities and large urban complexes • Evolving Technologies: Their impact on science and its use Technical Commission for Atmospheric Science 2 2

  3. WWRP overarching goals • Towards Environmental Prediction, integrating modeling components (hydrology, sea-ice, ocean, atmospheric composition, etc.) to better understand coupled processes and to improve forecasting methods. • Towards a seamless predictive capability, developing a unified modeling approach to advance environmental prediction on the weekly to monthly time scale. • Towards impacts forecasting,building community resilience in the face of increasing vulnerability to extreme weather events, through a better understanding of communication and decision-making processes. 3 Commission for Atmospheric Science 2

  4. WWOSC 'Seamless Earth System Modelling' Book: http://library.wmo.int/pmb_ged/wmo_1156_en.pdf

  5. Nowcasting and Mesoscale • Tropical Meteorology • Predictability Dynamics and Ensemble Forecasting • Data Assimilation and Observing Systems • Verification • Social & economics WWRP a seamlessprogramme Challenges Projects Working Groups 5 Commission for Atmospheric Science 2

  6. Nowcasting and Mesoscale • Tropical Meteorology • Predictability Dynamics and Ensemble Forecasting • Data Assimilation and Observing Systems • Verification • Social & economics WWRP a seamlessprogramme Challenges Projects Working Groups 6 Commission for Atmospheric Science 2

  7. Nowcasting and Mesoscale • Tropical Meteorology • Predictability Dynamics and Ensemble Forecasting • Data Assimilation and Observing Systems • Verification • Social & economics WWRP a seamlessprogramme Challenges Projects Working Groups 7 Commission for Atmospheric Science 2

  8. Sub-seasonal to seasonal “Bridging the gap between weather and climate” Co-chairs: FrédéricVitart (ECMWF), Andrew Robertson (IRI) Evaluate potential predictability of sub-seasonal events through a multi-model approach. Understand systematic errors and biases in the sub-seasonal to seasonal forecast range Focus on specific extreme event case studies increasing resilience and improving adapting capacity. Project Office: KMA/NIMR Commission for Atmospheric Science 2

  9. The Polar Prediction Project Promote cooperative international research enabling development of improved weather and environmental prediction services for the polar regions, on time scales from hourly to seasonal Chair: Thomas Jung, AWI Project Office: Alfred Wegener Institute, Germany Commission for Atmospheric Science 2

  10. The Year of Polar Prediction Commission for Atmospheric Science 2

  11. High Impact Weather Project • Increasing resilience to Urban Flood, Wildfire, Urban Heat and Air Pollution in Megacities, Localised extreme wind, Disruptive winter weather through improving forecasts for timescales of minutes to two weeks and enhancing their communication and utility in social, economic and environmental applications • Implementation Plan (2015-2024) approved by WWRP SSC • Links to WCRP through quantifying vulnerability and risk assessment, and for response to High Impact Weather in a changing climate. Chair: Brian Golding, MetOffice Christof Stache/AFP/Getty Images; Marina Shemesh /publicdomainpictures.net; Alexandros Vlachos/EPA; NOAA NWS; NOAA NWS 11 Commission for Atmospheric Science 2

  12. WMO 2016-2019 strategy Disaster risk reduction: Improve the accuracy and effectiveness of impact-based forecasts and multi-hazard early warnings Global Framework for Climate Services: Implement climate services under the GFCS particularly for countries that lack them Sub-seasonal to seasonal Aviation  meteorological services: to provide sustainable high quality services in support of safety, efficiency and regularity of the air transport worldwide Polar and high mountain regions: Improve operational meteorological and hydrological monitoring, prediction and services in polar and high mountain regions 12 Commission for Atmospheric Science 2

  13. What we expect • Key scientific challenges identified by WG/Project • Key implementation challenges identified by WG/Project • Key needs for international coordination identified by WG/Project 13 Technical Commission for Atmospheric Science 2

  14. What we expect • For each CAS challenge • Suggested activities (4-5 priorities) • 2 year plan • 8 year plan • Links to other projects and WGs 14 Technical Commission for Atmospheric Science 2

  15. The planning matrix 15 Technical Commission for Atmospheric Science 2

  16. WWRP Science Implementation Plan Implementation Plan Timeline

  17. Report to SSC: Template. • Objectives (1/2 page, review the main objectives of the WG/ Project/etc) • Key highlights in the last year (1 page, describing the main activities and rationale) • Links to WGs, Projects, International initiatives (1 page, what are the existing links or the ones we need to establish with WWRP WGs/projects, with WMO programmes, and with other no-WMO international initiatives) • Next year planning (1 page, describing the priorities for next year) • Other elements considering the following items (1 page): • Membership (members finishing their mandate) • Fund raising (call for proposal, opportunity for research funding) • Meeting plan table (table summarizing next year meetings, steering group meetings, co-sponsored meetings but also relevant meetings you think a WG/project member should attend)

  18. Thank you for your attention E-mail: abaklanov@wmo.int WWRP publications available from:http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/new/wwrp_new_en.html WWRP contacts: pruti@wmo.int

  19. 8th Session of the Scientific Steering Committee of WWRP (Geneva, WMO Headquarters, 24-27 November 2015)

  20. http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/new/documents/Final_WWRP2015_2.pdfhttp://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/arep/wwrp/new/documents/Final_WWRP2015_2.pdf

  21. Forecast Models 18 UTC, 7 May 2002 30-hr forecast NASA A-Train MODIS CALIPSO & Geostationary Satellite IR Obs GALION Surface-based LIDAR GAW/AERONET/SKYNET Surface-based AOD European PM10 WMO Supported Aerosol and Weather Prediction Research

  22. EuMetChem WG3: Chemical data assimilation in integrated model See: eumetchem.info

  23. New GAW SAG on NRT Modeling Applications / Chemical Weather Prediction / Coupled Chemistry-Meteorology Modelling Application Areas: • Chemical weather / air quality forecasting and reanalyses • NWP for precipitation, visibility, thunderstorms, etc. • Sand and Dust Storm Modelling and Warning Systems • Wild fire atmospheric pollution and effects • Volcano ash forecasting, warning and effects • High Impact Weather and Disaster Risk • Chemical data assimilation for air quality and NWP • Weather modification and geo-engineering • Effects of Short-Lived Climate Forcers • Earth System Modelling and Projections

  24. Thanks Info and contacts: www.wmo.intwwrp pruti@wmo.int abaklanov@wmo.int

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