1 / 20

Forecast for 2011-12 Winter

This forecast discusses the effects of La Niña on the 2011-12 winter season, including above-average mountain snowfall, potential flooding, and cooler temperatures. Get ready for a slow start but a season that makes up for lost time!

rlongoria
Download Presentation

Forecast for 2011-12 Winter

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Forecast for 2011-12 Winter George H. Taylor, CCM October, 2011

  2. Current Conditions

  3. Long-term Trends inTropical Pacific Indicators

  4. Analog Matches In terms of PDO conditions, the best analog matches were 1933, 1961, 2001, and 2008. In terms of MEI, the best matches were 1967,1989, 1996, 1999 and 2008. Overall the best match was 2008.

  5. There’s no sunshine in the skies todayIt’s gonna rain, rain, rain ‘til the month of MayI guess you say, why do I get wet today?La Niña, talking ‘bout La Niña -- La Niña!

  6. There’ll be soooo much snow in the mountains this yearAnd lowland flooding, baby, is something to fearI guess you say, why is there a flood today?La Niña, talking ‘bout La Niña -- La Niña!

  7. It’s gonna be a dry, dry winter down in LADrought in Arizona, and all along the Southern WayI guess you say, why is it so dry today?La Niña, talking ‘bout La Niña -- La Niña!

  8. Talkin’ ‘bout La Niña….There’s no sunshine in the skies today, it’s La Niña,It might even flood today, La NiñaTalkin’ ‘bout, talkin’ ‘bout, talkin’ ‘bout La Niña

  9. Bottom Line • Rather benign early season, with very active December - February • Above-average mountain snowfall for the winter; average ski season opening date • Significant precipitation totals with possibility of flooding • Cooler than average temperatures • Slightly below average precipitation • Good chance of low elevation snow (esp. January)

  10. In a nutshell: A slow start but making up for lost time!

More Related