Living with Climatic Change in the Caribbean : An Overview of Initiatives in the Centre

1. CARIBBEAN COMMUNITY Living with Climatic Change in the Caribbean : AnOverview of Initiatives in the Centre Mark Bynoe, PhD Seniron Environmental/Resource Economist Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre, Belmopan, BELIZE – 11th October 2011

2. Order of Presentation • Critical Factors • The economic state of CARICOM Countries • The global climate trend and negotiating positions • Observed climate trends in the Caribbean • Early Adaptation initiatives • Policy Initiatives • New Initiatives • Next Steps

3. The Economic Situation in CARICOM States • The CARICOM countries as a bloc have been experiencing: • BoP deficits and slow and sluggish growth for sometime, i.e. between 1984 – 2008 they grew by 1.2% while the developed world grew by 4.2% (IMF, 2010), • Many of the small CARICOM countries fall into the category of highly indebted poor countries (HIPC) with debts of 115% of GDP, • With the exception of T&T they are all net importers of fossil fuel, spending between 40% and 50% of merchandise income on this product, • Absolute poverty levels of about 30%, and • They are mainly primary producers and are very vulnerable to external shocks. • The current global financial recession has exacerbated the economic plight of the region.

4. What are the Key Climate Observations for the Region? – Climate Has Changed

5. The Global Climate Trend • Recent observations and analysis confirm the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report’s extremely conservative estimate on projected rise in global temperature and sea level. • The IPCC IV Assessment projected sea level rise ranging from a minimum of 7 inches to a possible maximum of 23 inches by 2100. • More recent research and observations suggest the rise will range from a minimum of 20 inches to a possible maximum of 39 inches over the same time period. • The 350 ppm concentration of CO2 would result in an averaged rise in global temperature well in excess of 2oC • The 450 ppm would result in a rise in excess of 5oC • Already the CO2 concentration is at 390 ppm

6. Indicators of a Warming Caribbean Climate • Increase in the number of incidences of: • The rate and extent of coral bleaching, • The frequency and severity of extreme events, • Changing rainfall patterns and intensity, • Pest infestation, and • Increase in climate related disease vectors. • Regional models suggest further increases in these events

8. Climate Is Changing - Results from PRECIS I Annual Temperature Annual Precipitation ECHAM4 ECHAM4 HadAM3P ECHAM4 HadAM3P A2 A2 A2 A2 B2 B2 B2 B2 • Mean changes 2.9 - 11%; • High consensus of rainfall decrease in almost all islands except Cuba, Bahamas and Dominica Republic • Mean Regional Warming 2.3-3.40C; • High consensus in temperature increase; • Greater warming over land areas • Greater warming over large island states

9. The Region’s Early Response to CC (1 of 2)

10. The Region’s Early Response to CC (2 of 2) • Identification of the need to institutionalise CC issues • CARICM governments agreed to operationalise a Centre responsible for CC issues in 2002 • The Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre (CCCCC) was formulated in 2004 and became fully operational in 2005

11. Major Initiatives Completed under the WB/GEF-Supported MACC Project • A Regional Strategy Framework for – “Achieving Climate Change Resilient Development” • Completion of a Vulnerability Assessment Manual • Completion of Vulnerability Country Assessment studies • Completion of National Adaptation Strategies for the following sectors: • Water (Belize, Jamaica and Saint Vincent) • Agriculture (Guyana) • Tourism (Barbados) • Health (Region)

12. Ongoing Initiatives under the WB/GEF-Supported SPACC Project • St. Vincent and the Grenadines • Design and install a sustainable water system in Bequia incorporating: • Projected future climatic conditions, and • Utilizing renewable energy technology for powering a reverse osmosis system • Saint Lucia • The development of an integrated coastal/watershed management system in the Vieux-Fort region of Saint Lucia to reduce vulnerability to climate change-related impacts. • The strengthening of a designated critical infrastructure to withstand the projected higher incidence of extreme weather events based on • Hurricane wind studies and the development of engineering design guidelines

13. CARICOM Regional Framework • At the request in 2007 by CARICOM Heads of Government the CCCCC prepared a regional climate change strategy through an extensive region wide consultative process with key stakeholders. • The final document ‘A Regional Framework for Achieving Development Resilient to Climate Change 2009-2015’ was approved by the CARICOM Heads of Government in 2009 • The Strategy adumbrates Five strategic elements and a number of supporting goals to secure the transformational change required to build resilience and low carbon economies.

14. Policy Positions (1 of 3) • The Liliendaal Declaration (2009) • The stabilization of atmospheric GHG concentration at 350 ppm of CO2 or less. • Limiting the rise of the global averaged surface temperature to no more than 1.5 0C above the pre-industrial levels. • Global greenhouse gas emissions peak by 2015 and • Global CO2 reductions of greater than 95% by 2050

15. Policy Positions (2 of 3) • The Development of a Strategic Framework (2009 - 2015) • Against the backdrop of climate change indicators and earlier initiatives, a strategic framework for achieving development resilient to climate change was developed and approved for implementation by CARICOM Heads. • Strategy objectives • Promoting actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions through energy reduction and conservation, and switching to renewable and cleaner sources of energy; • Promoting actions to minimize the effects of greenhouse gas emissions through initiatives and measures designed to reduce the vulnerability of natural and human systems to the effects of climate change; • Promoting the development and implementation of educational and public awareness programs as well as public access to information and citizen participation across the Caribbean.

16. Policy Positions (3 of 3) The Strategic Framework (2009 - 2015) • The Strategic Framework is made up of four primary elements: • Mainstreaming climate change adaptation strategies into the sustainable development agendas using a learning by doing approach to capacity building and build on the progress achieved through the CPACC, ACCC, MACC and SPACC projects. • Promote actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions through fossil fuel reduction and conservation, and switching to renewable and cleaner energy sources. • Promote actions to reduce the vulnerability of natural and human systems to the impacts of a changing climate. • Promote actions to derive social, economic, and environmental benefits from the prudent management of standing forests in CARICOM countries.

17. Adaptation Options from the Strategic Plan • Enhance water management systems • Improve hydrometeoreological systems • Improve the technology with which farmers are asked to work. In this regard, it will be necessary to ascertain, inter alia, crop rainfall threshold for various cultivars and work with farmers to develop alternative crops, and improved farming practices e.g drip irrigation, where possible • Improve research, particularly in the area of biotechnology • Improve infrastructure e.g access roads, storage and processing facilities • Encourage more protected agriculture, where possible • Diversifying the agricultural base within the region • Improve the coordination among the various agricultural institutions for better planning • Improve access to markets and more reliable market information

18. Implementation Plan • Heads of Government further mandated the Centre to develop, in consultation with regional stakeholders, an Implementation Plan for the Regional Strategy. • IP developed through an extensive National/Regional consultative process involving all 15 CARICOM countries – public and private sector, civil society, NGOs, donor agencies. • Endorsed at recent meeting of COTED to be presented to next Heads of Government meeting for their endorsement and final approval.

19. Implementation Plan • Seeks to guide the identification and prioritisation of actions by regional and national stakeholders under each strategic element and goal area of the Regional Framework through the use of risk management approaches to decision making. • Considers responsibilities and functional co-operation between regional organisations and national governments. • Recognises that there are existing significant resource and capacity challenges that hold back the region’s sustainable development and growth and proposes building on a process known as the ‘three-ones’ to assist in resource mobilisation and co-ordination of actions.

20. Critical Steps to Operationalise the IP • Support climate compatible development in the Caribbean by enabling the implementation of key activities outlined in the IP • Embed considerations of climate change across the Caribbean, through the development of regional approach to risk management and the creation of a risk ethic in decision making • Demonstrate delivery of benefits at the national level from climate financing at regional level

21. KEY ACTIONS FOR IMMEDIATE IMPLEMENTATION • Capacity building to strengthen knowledge base for decision making - modeling, vulnerability &impact studies, cost benefit analyses of adaptation options • Development of CC risk management methodology for use regionally by Finance Ministries and Planning Department and subsequently by all sectoral planners. • Addressing coastal vulnerability and coastal livelihoods as a matter of urgency. • Supporting countries to identify opportunities for climate financing and providing assistance to develop country portfolios of such projects • Implementing Adaptation interventions building on the Centre’s experience in Implementing Adaptation projects in three pilot countries

22. Conclusions – Climate Change Demands A Change in Thinking and Approach • The Implementation Plan is intended to be a core planning document and used as an aid to decision-making. • It will continue to evolve in response to: • Improvements in our understanding of the science of climate change and the direct and indirect impacts on social, environmental and economic systems. • Progress on securing international agreements. • The results from actions identified and those arising from other programmes. • New actions can and must be included in the Implementation Plan. • Formal reviews are proposed of both the Regional Framework and the Implementation Plan every two years.

23. Thank You!