Miss Stock 2009

1. Miss Stock2009 - Super Stock Storm Group -

2. Important Notes • Most of our information has been updated until the end of Monday (23/2/09) • We aren’t responsible for your decision of investment based on our suggestion. • Long term investor  invest some money into the stock market right now. Short term speculator  stay out of the stock market. • If our investing money lose some but under the average loss of the whole market, it is our success.

3. The major news of the week and effects • Financing 32,000 billion loan to support business • Credit growth is 0.5% compared with 2008. • From 1/3/2009, electricity price increasesnearly 9% makes CPI increase from 0.25-0.3% Circular No. 27/2009/TT-BTC: extend the time period of paying tax personal income to the end of May/ 2009 Decision 131 of the government: stimulating package, support lending rate by 4%

4. The major news of the week and effects • Interest rate to mobilize USD reduces strongly to 2-4% per year • Many companies keep suffering losses. Reduce import tax of fuel by5% Gold price increases suddenly and can reach 21 mil VND /tael

5. The major news of the week and effects • The Japanese economy felt into the most serious recession during the past 35 years. • More 4 banks collapsed, increasing the total number to 13 • The U.S industry went down successively 6 months • The American stock market comes to slowest point of the past 3 months

6. The major news of the week and effects • Being afraid of nationalizing the banks made the stock market go down • The oil price increased strongly compared to those of the past 7 week. • The gold price are recorded with the new highest point of 1,033.9$/ounce

7. Fundamental Analysis - Conclusion • Macroeconomic factors in Jan: no signal of the bright perspective. • FDI has just approached $185m • The export turnover also decreased dramatically (3.8$ billion). • These indexes expose a very hard financial year and many challenges for overall VN economy • The value of export- import goods in Jan/09 decreases 24% and 44%,compared to the same previous period

8. Fundamental Analysis - Conclusion • Poor financial reports in the fourth quarter of 2008 affect to the sales and profits of the corporations in the whole year • In the bearing VN stock market, in VN monitor report at the beginning of January 2009, HSBC has reduced the proposal of VN share in its portfolio to 0% • The government's supports to enterprises may only be seen their effectiveness at least in the third quarter because of the lateness in time.

9. Fundamental Analysis - Conclusion • In 2009, VN economy will meet a lot of difficulty, officially being influenced by the global recession in 2008. • Under the efficient policy of VN government which can not immediately get the result, 2 first quarters: very difficult, from third quarter: quite stable and getting over • The chance to reform and reconstruct the firms, eliminate the inefficient companies, make the market more healthy and get the investors’ belief.

10. Fundamental Analysis - Conclusion • The VN stock market in short term and in 3 first quarter cannot recover but we expect in stability and recovering in the forth quarter. • Without the signal of positive information in this week, we predict this week the down trend will continue but it is going to be weaker. Maybe it is the good time to invest in long term.

11. VNIndex 16/02  20/02 16/02/09: VN-Index decreased for 5 continuing trading. At the end of this week, it is 272.31 pts, decreasing 2.2 pts (-0.8%) in comparison with last week. 17/02/09: VN-Index decreased sharply by 9.24 pts (3.39%), was 263.07 pts at the end of the trading. Trading volume increased by more than 4 mil stocks, which is more than 40% compared to the previous trading, reached 9.67 mil units, accounted for 187.51 bil. This showed the investment of large investors. 18/02/09: VN-Index decreased sharply by 7.98 pts (3.03%), was 255.08 pts at the end of the trading. Trading volume increased by nearly 1.4mil stocks, reached 11.1 mil, accounted for 208.64 bil.

12. VNIndex 16/02  20/02 19/02/09: VN-Index decreased by 0.24 pts (0.093%), was 254.85 pts at the end of the trading. Trading volume of the day decreased by nearly 2 mil units, but was still high in comparison with the average of several current weeks, reached 9.4 mil units, accounted for 169.71 bil. 20/02/09: VN-Index decreased by 2.28 pts (0.89%), was 252.57 pts at the end of the trading. Trading volume decreased by 1.8 mil units, reached 7.62 mil units, accounted for 138.03 bil. After a week and 4 trading of the week before last week continuing to decrease, VN-Index experienced 9 decreasing trading and 8 under-floor decreasing trading. Experiencing this level, VN-Index was back to the level 41 months ago.

13. Technical Analysis

14. Technical Analysis • Now, the downward is remaining stable, which is proven by a long-term downward trend of the price curve. • Besides, the price curve crossed below the MA50 and MA15 curve and has created a relatively large distance. This means a downward trend in short term and medium term. • Moreover, the MACD curve (-12.97) crossed below the signal line (-10.13) and is below level 0 with a sign of downward trend. Divergence: -2.837. This shows a significant downward trend.

15. Technical Analysis • The downward trend of the price curve is more transparent if we look at the MFI indicator (13.01) which is decreasing and very low, below 20. This means that the positive cash flow has been and is flowing out of the market. • Besides, the decreasing trend can be confirmed by the low and decreasing traded volume. • Last week experienced 2 trading that trading volume increased significantly when prices decreased sharply. However, trading volume decreased again when prices decreased slightly. This means that the demand only increases in the lower price level because of the definite downward trend of VN-Index.

16. Technical Analysis • The indicator curve, which is the price curve, MA15 curve (middle-term average price) crossed below and far away from MA50 curve (long-term average price). This means that in short-term, the downward is still remained, and will decrease more sharply in the near future. • Bollinger band: The fact that the price curve crossed below the Bollinger band is a signal that the market will rebound. The situation was the same in 8/06. • RSI ( Relative Strength Index ): A move below the level 30 predicts a over-sell situation. Investors think that the market is at the floor level now and want to invest more.

17. Technical Analysis - Conclusion At the moment, it is hard for VN Index to escape from the downward trend and goes in the converse way. This is because there are 2 resistance levels that keep VN Index from increasing. They are the MA 50 curve which is approximately 300 pts, and the MA15 curve which is 270 pts. Now, the solid supporting level of VN Index is from 220 pts, and VN Index may experience this level before starting to go up. Predication the week from 23/02/09 to 27/02/09: The sharply downward trend will remain in this week because of no positive information. Besides, the solid supporting level of VN-Index (220pts) is really near, so VN-Index may test this level this week. We predict that VN-Index may continue decreasing and test the level of 220 pts before rebounding. It can fluctuate between 230 – 250 this week

18. VNM- Vinamilk • One of the largest companies in HOSE. • A blue-chip stock. Established in 1976, securitized in 2003 Main products: condensed milk, milk powder, yogurt, coffee, cream and fruit juice.

19. VNM- Financial Information • Total assets: 6,003,724,964,364.25 • Total sales: 8,208,035,333,328 • Net income (2008): 1,362,176,977,213 VND • P/B: 2.88, ROA: 20.68, ROE: 26.85, D/E: 0.27 • P/E: 10.73 higher than average

20. VNM- Vinamilk Bollinger band is down ward and opening bigger Momentum has little volatility, fluctuates around zero line Trading volume is so high RSI also fluctuates slightly around the down line  With all above, price of stock will revise upward

21. DHG- HauGiang Drug Company • Establish on 2/9/2004 with the capital up to 80 billion VND. • The main product lines: producing and trading Drug, exporting medicine and importing health equipment, manufacturing and trading processed food.

22. DHG- Financial information • Total assets: 1,040,146,183,671.25 • Total sales: 1,513,172,208,780 • Net income: 135,867,179,380 VND • P/B: 2.81, ROA: 13.06, ROE: 19.05, D/E: 0.45 • P/E: 14.72 higher than average

23. DHG- HauGiang Drug Company Bollinger band opens larger suddenly mean that the price will have strong volatile Price of the stock gets out of the down line of Bollinger, so it will drop in some next trading Trading volume is increasing while price is decreasing is a signal to hope that stock price will rebound.

24. VSH- VinhSon - Song Hinh hydropower JSC • Established on 07/01/2000 • Main activities: electric business, management, operation and maintenance of factory hydropower. • On 18/07/2006 stock company official transactions on the HOSE

25. VSH- Vinh Son Song Hinh hydropower JSC • Total assets: 2,522,984,354,634 • Total sales 2008: 483,680,050,837 • Net income 2008: 370,841,414,798 • P/B: 1.16, ROA: 19.99, ROE: 20.63, D/E: 0.03 • P/E: 10.27 less than average means.

26. VSH- Vinh Son Song Hinh hydropower JSC The MACD is approaching the zero line and can cut over the zero line in the next sessions. The MACD is also under the EXP lines and approaching it. The gap between 2 lines is smaller and smaller.

27. VSH- Vinh Son Song Hinh hydropower JSC The Bollinger bands keep opening widely and move straightly. The closing price cut over the SMA(5) and SMA(20) and move upward. It is the signal of sudden movement -> the price can increase in the short run and may come back to decrease in the following week to express the long term trend.

28. VSH- Vinh Son Song Hinh hydropower JSC RSI is in the average zone, doesn’t express much information. Momentum is increasing, quite high, expressing the ability of strong volatility of price.

29. VSH- Vinh Son Song Hinh hydropower JSC Last week, VSH had 2 gains and 3 loss. The average price decreased 0.2 point, equally 0.67%. The trading volume increased quite a lot with 305,890 in comparison with 89,670 of 2 weeks ago.  From the above analysis, we believe that next week VSH can gain at least 1- 3 points.

30. TBC – ThacBa hydropower JSC • Established in 1960 • A long history in produce and trade electricity • The main product lines of TBC and prospects are quite the same with VSH.

31. TBC- Financial information • Total assets: 776,931,532,526.75 • Total sales: 244,566,195,779 • Net income: 155,282,639,293 • P/B: 1.16, ROA: 19.99, ROE: 20.63, D/E: 0.03 • P/E less than average

32. TBC The Bollinger band is opening and up warding so this signal implies increase of the stock. Bollinger band also opens larger that shows the fluctuation in price of the stock will become stronger in some next trading market. RSI line is going to fluctuate zone

33. TBC Trading volume has increased slightly and price decreased in recent trading market. This signal find out that is accumulating Momentum line is rather moderate, less volatile ----> TBC exposes the upside momentum in some next trading

34. DPM- Petro Vietnam Fertilizer and Chemicals Corporation • DPM is the best trademark in Vietnam fertilizer market with • The largest market share (up to 40% of all the demand in Vietnam). • Modern technology, wide spread distribution network and strong supply chain.

35. DPM- Financial information • Total assets: 5,797,716,480,516 • Total sales: 6,475,367,778,936 • Net income: 1,379,179,910,176 • P/B: 2.29, ROA: 23.79, ROE: 28.44, D/E: 0.19 • P/E: 8.05 higher than average

36. DPM- Petro Vietnam Fertilizer and Chemicals Corporation Last week, Vn index lost its points during 5 sessions DPM had 4 loss and 1 gain Average price decreased 1 point, equally 3.3% The total trading volume of last week was 2,153,770 in comparison with 1,019,030 of 2 weeks ago.

37. DPM- Petro Vietnam Fertilizer and Chemicals Corporation MACD and EXP lines are both under the zero line The MACD line is under the EXP line and on the way to go upward. The gap between 2 lines is smaller and smaller. The Bollinger bands keep opening widely and move downward.

38. DPM- Petro Vietnam Fertilizer and Chemicals Corporation The closing price line cut over the SMA (5) but still under SMA(20). RSI approaches and over 30, on the way to get out of the oversold area  express that investors are caring about DPM. Momentum line fluctuates around 0  little volatility of price.

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