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EnKF and EnKF -GSI Hybrid Development and Testing for (right now) Rapid Refresh Configurations

EnKF and EnKF -GSI Hybrid Development and Testing for (right now) Rapid Refresh Configurations. OU Team (Ming Xue , Kefeng Zhu and Yujie Pan, Xuguang Wang) in collaboration with ESRL (Jeff Whitaker, Stan Benjamin, Steve Weygandt , Ming Hu) and EMC (Dave Parrish), et al .

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EnKF and EnKF -GSI Hybrid Development and Testing for (right now) Rapid Refresh Configurations

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  1. EnKF and EnKF-GSI Hybrid Development and Testing for (right now) Rapid Refresh Configurations OU Team (Ming Xue, Kefeng Zhu and Yujie Pan, Xuguang Wang) in collaboration with ESRL (Jeff Whitaker, Stan Benjamin, Steve Weygandt, Ming Hu) and EMC (Dave Parrish), et al. Status as of December 7, 2011 Contact: mxue@ou.edu

  2. Domains EnKF Test Domain 207x207 grid points ~40 km, 51 levels 13 km RR forecast Domain 532x532 grid points ~13 km, 51 levels Current RUC Domain as indicated EnSRF—RR RUC

  3. 284/184 287/187 281/181 ADPSFC ADPSFC ADPSFC Observation type used for verification Surface: Land--- 287, 281, 284 (U, V) 187, 181, 184 (RH,T, PRMSL) Sea---280, 282 (U, V) 180 (RH, T, PRMSL) Up air: 220, 221, 223 (U, V) 120 (RH,T, PRMSL) Quality mark: 2 282 280/180 SFCSHP SFCSHP 221 223 220/120 PROFLR ADPUPA ADPUPA

  4. EnKF and EnKF-3DVAR Hybrid DA System Development and Testing for Operational Rapid Refresh (RR) Model and possibly NAM T sounding RH sounding • 40 km ensemble grid • 40-members • Week-long 3-hourly assimilation cycles • All data used by operational RR system except for satellite • Comparison with similarly configured GSI • EnKF results shown GSI Multi-phys EnKF V sounding U sounding Mean 3-h forecast RMSEs against observations

  5. multiple physics settings for EnKF

  6. Single – EnKF using single suite of physics. Multi – using multiple physics GSI EnKF RH Forecasts 3h-18h at 40 km The use of multiple physics improves the EnKF results.

  7. GSI: Pure 3-DVAR Hybrid1 05: half ensemble B Hybrid1 00: full ensemble B enkf: single-phy. EnKFenkf_multi: multi-phy.EnKF 3hr Deterministic Forecast RMSE

  8. 18hr Deterministic Forecast RMSE

  9. 13 km forecasts initialized with 40 km EnKF ensemble mean analysesMean Precipitation ETS Score over 1 week

  10. 1.25 mm 0.1 mm Average hourly precip ETS scores for all forecasts 2.5 mm

  11. May 10-11, 2009 Tornado case IC: 40km EnKF analysis Observation GSI EnKF

  12. Summary of Results so Far • In terms of 3-hour (deterministic) forecast errors, • multi-physics EnKF out performs single-physics EnKF. • Hybrid with half static half flow-dependent B outperforms hybrid with full flow-dependent B. • The hybrid experiments used single-physics EnKF perturbations and interaction was one way. • Half state B hybrid has similar quality as multi-physics EnKF at the middle and upper levels. • The multi-physics EnKF performs the best at the low levels. • At 18 hours, half-half hybrid produced the best forecasts among the EnKF and hybrid, and is able to beat GSI for essentially all variables at all levels compared to sounding, except for u velocity against wind profilers. • For precipitation forecasts on 13-km grid, initialized from 40 km GSI and ensemble mean EnKF analyses, the EnKF-initialized forecasts are more skillful, in terms of ETS or based on subjective evaluation.

  13. Ongoing work • Results are sensitive to horizontal and vertical localization – we are further testing height and observation type dependent localizations, attempting to obtain more optimal settings. • Working on dual-resolution capability in EnKF. Need it in GSI-hybrid for WRF ARW grid. • Will try to combine hybrid with best-turned multi-physics EnKF. • Will try ensemble forecasting with multi-physics EnKF perturbations. • Testing satellite (impact neutral so far). • Will add radar radial velocity and reflectivity.

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