1 / 21

Threshold Models of Technological Transitions

Dive into complexity research on coordinated behaviors in technological transitions, uncovering mechanisms behind sudden shifts. Gain insights on lock-in models, cascades, and network structures influencing diffusion. Understand the importance of micro-level analysis in shaping policies and sustainability transitions.

rogerramos
Download Presentation

Threshold Models of Technological Transitions

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Threshold Modelsof Technological Transitions Utrecht University Summerschool Complex Systems August 2015

  2. Introduction • A large part of complexity research deals with conditions under which autonomous particles or agents suddenly show coordinated behaviour leading to the emergence of macroscopic patterns. • In the social sciences this is an old question as human agents are in principle driven by personal contexts, yet sometimes show remarkable coordinated behaviour. Think of social unrest, social norms, fashions, media hypes, etc. • The threshold is generally expressed as the number of other agents already adopting. Hence, many technologies are slow to diffuse due to this coordination, a.k.a. lock-in problem. • There is a wide interest because of the need of sustainability transitions.  • The take away message holds that there are many different but related ways to explain sudden transitions, which means that empirical research really has to go to the micro level to understand mechanism or mechanisms. • Similarly, policy will only work well if the exact process underlying technology adoption is well understood. 

  3. Structure • I will discuss: • The classic lock-in model of competing technologies • The modified lock-in model of transitions • Informational cascades • The NK-model • Percolation model • Background literature:

  4. The example of cars, bikes and planes 30/09/09 PAGE 4

  5. And the dominant designs that followed 30/09/09 PAGE 5

  6. A more recent example … 30/09/09 PAGE 6

  7. Dominant design 30/09/09 PAGE 7

  8. Lock-in • Path dependence • Irreversibility • Multiple equilibria • Unpredictability • Population consists of 50-50 distribution of R-agents and S-agents • Sequential decision-making

  9. Modified lock-in model of technological transitions

  10. Modified lock-in model

  11. Lock-in model

  12. Informational cascades

  13. NK-model

  14. NK-model

  15. NK-model

  16. Percolation in a social network

  17. Percolation in a social network

  18. Different network structures

  19. Thresholdsdependonnetworkstructrures • Upper bound to diffusion: 45º line (perfectinformation) • Phasechanges: from a non-diffusion to a diffusionregime • Regular and Small worldnetworksveryinefficient

  20. Thresholdsdependonnetworkstructrures

More Related