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Risks to Nutrition from Increasing Climate Variability. Harold Alderman April 23, 2009. Global Warming Will be Accompanied by Increased Climate Variability.
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Risks to Nutrition from Increasing Climate Variability Harold Alderman April 23, 2009
Global Warming Will be Accompanied by Increased Climate Variability • In addition to trends in temperature that will lower yields of major crops such as maize in Africa, IPCC expects higher climate variability • Heavy precipitation events rated very likely • Increased cyclones likely • An increase in areas that are drought prone also likely
Panel Studies of Consequences of Child Malnutrition Provide Evidence on Climate Shocks • Various studies use weather or price shocks (weather one step removed) to separate effects of malnutrition from poverty • Droughts in Zimbabwe (2 periods) Ethiopia and Tanzania, flood in Bangladesh, price movements in Pakistan • Results broadly consistent with evidence from long term experiment in Guatemala
Economic Consequences can be Substantial • Drought in Zimbabwe led to decreased schooling and lower adult height estimated to cost 7% of lifetime earnings • In Tanzania, a drought in the first 5 years of a child’s life also resulted in late school entry and few completed years of school • Taking only the impact of years of schooling on wages any assistance that cost less than this would have a favorable benefit:cost ratio • Cost much higher when reduced height is considered as well
Avoiding these Losses • A 10% increase in the area of a farm affected by drought in Ethiopia led to a 1.8% decrease in child growth in the subsequent 6 months • Food aid largely offset this where it was delivered • Argument for emergency use of food aid (though this study did not test if income transfer would have had the same impact)
Setting up Counter Cyclical Safety Nets • Three Components needed: • Flexible financing • Contingent targeting • Scalable programs • Flexible financing most vexing as timing is critical • Scalable programs need to be designed prior to the drought or flood to be effective • These points valid for preparation for price or financial crises as well
Addressing Specifics of Nutrition • Most counter-cyclical safety nets address household resources, either through food or income transfers or public works earnings • Ready to use therapeutic foods (RUTF), however, are specific curative innovation that proves cost effective • Adaptation to preventative programs is still controversial, however.
