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Innovation in Terrorist Behavior

What is Innovation?. Adoption of new patterns of behaviorIdeas incorporated into actionTypes:StrategicTacticalOrganizationalDistinguishing the original from the derivative. Explaining Innovation and Adaptation. Problem solving and analogical reasoningNew logical connectionsProblems redefine

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Innovation in Terrorist Behavior

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    1. Innovation in Terrorist Behavior Martha Crenshaw Wesleyan University

    2. What is Innovation? Adoption of new patterns of behavior Ideas incorporated into action Types: Strategic Tactical Organizational Distinguishing the original from the derivative

    3. Explaining Innovation and Adaptation Problem solving and analogical reasoning New logical connections Problems redefined and routines stretched New solution New association of familiar methods Modification of the known to fit the new Result of learning not inspiration Not necessarily due to failure of other methods Role of entrepreneurs & intrinsic motivation Stimuli: Government’s innovation New opportunities and resources New constituencies Intra-movement rivalries

    4. Strategic Innovation Shifts that transform nature of terrorist challenge Exceptional and rare Requires new conception of strategic effectiveness New goal New way of relating operations to goal

    5. Tactical and Organizational Innovation Tactics Change in method, not strategic conceptualization New weapons and targets More frequent than strategic innovations Organizations Change in group structure (e.g., hierarchy vs. “flat” or leaderless) “Open underground” vs. clandestinity Alliances

    6. Diffusion of Innovation How? Direct contact Imitation Observation Media transmission (television, internet) Which innovations? Appearance of success Ease of use Salience and publicity To whom? Identification processes Reference groups and role models

    7. Example: “Suicide Terrorism” Origins in Iran-Iraq War, 1980-1988 Hezbollah as revolutionary model, 1983-2000 Religious sanction by Shi’ite clerics Aided by Iran Targets Embassies (American, Israeli) Military headquarters/barracks (American, French, Israeli) Israeli army convoys Transnational reach (Argentina 1992 & 1994) Primarily vehicle bombs Imitated by secular political parties Participation by women Videotaping

    8. “Suicide Terrorism”: The Diffusion and Adaptation of Innovation LTTE in Sri Lanka 1987- Assassinations of prominent leaders, including Tamils Economic, transportation, military, & religious targets “Human bombs” Specialized “suicide” units including women Hamas & Palestinian Islamic Jihad 1993- Aim mass civilian casualties Attacks on urban centers within Green Line Culture of martyrdom in Sunni community Imitation by PFLP and Fatah (Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade) “Human bombs” No US targets

    9. Evolution of “suicide terrorism”: Al Qaeda Al Qaeda 1988- Relationship to Egyptian Islamic Jihad Shift to anti-US 1996 9/11 Global reach Pre 9/11 (Kenya, Tanzania, Yemen, Afghanistan, Italy, US, Jordan. . . .) Post 9/11(Tunisia, Indonesia, Kenya, Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt, England, Bangladesh. . . .) Combination of organizations Underground conspiracy Social movement/volunteers Business enterprise Transnational Forced decentralization post 9/11 Variety of targets (diplomatic, military, economic, civilian, religious) Narrow focus

    10. “Suicide terrorism” in Iraq 2003- Organizations Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia 2004- Mujahideen Shura Council 2006- Ansar al Sunna “Unknowns” Sectarian dimension Pakistan as model? Multiple targeting of civilians, police, military, coalition forces, local authorities Frequency Palestinians 1993-2005, estimated 142 attacks Iraq 2004-2005, 544 car bombs alone Context of insurgency External reach (Jordan)

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