Update on the Suitland Working Group Project on Reviewing Methods for Estimating Emigratio n

1. Update on the Suitland Working Group Project on Reviewing Methods for Estimating Emigration Melissa Scopilliti Chief, Net International Migration Branch Population Division U.S. Census Bureau

2. Suitland Working Group • Task force of the Conference of European Statisticians (CES) Work Plan on Improving International Migration Statistics • Conference in 2009 • Using Household Surveys to Measure Migration and the Size, Distribution, and Characteristics of Migrant Populations

3. Objectives of the Suitland Working Group • Primary objective: improve the use of household surveys to measure migration • Focus • Facilitating international collaboration and the consolidation of existing knowledge • Developing a research agenda focusing on methodological issues where no clear guidance exists • Creating products accessible to the widest audience possible

4. Suitland Working Group Projects • Literature review of methodologies used to estimate emigration • Website repository of household survey questionnaires on migration • Linking registers and other sources of administrative data with surveys • Questionnaire module on migration and remittances • Categories, definitions, and the importance of hard-to-count populations • Data quality issues for estimating migration using surveys • Sampling frame and sample design issues for measuring migrant populations

5. Emigration Methodology Report • Report currently under review • A Review of Methods for Estimating Emigration • Collaborators from academic institutions and statistical agencies • Austria, Canada, Italy, Lithuania, Lebanon, Mexico, Spain and the United States • Literature searches conducted in different languages • Arabic, English, French, German, Italian, Spanish, and Russian

6. Emigration Methodology Report • Data and methods reviewed: • Population registers • Migration surveys • Residual method • Panel data attrition methods • Indirect estimation methods • Multiplicity sampling method

7. Population Registers • Population registers are official lists that record vital events and demographic characteristics • Migration events are recorded as new registrations or de-registrations • Emigration estimates are produced using reports from local registers to national statistical offices

8. Population Registers • Strengths • Data are detailed • Data are current • Limitations • Data quality • Coverage • Out-of-date registers • De-registration from the population register

9. Migration Surveys • Estimates of emigration can be made using special surveys of migrants • Household surveys (retrospective) • Port surveys (prospective) • Examples of migration surveys • International Passengers Survey (IPS) • United Kingdom • EMIF-North Survey • Mexico

10. Migration Surveys • Strengths • Provide specific data about migration • Targeted toward the migrant population • May be more current than the census • Limitations • Expensive and time consuming • Emigration is a rare event

11. Residual Method • The residual method is based on the population balancing equation • Observed population at time 1 is survived forward to time 2 (accounting for deaths and immigration during the period) to create an expected population at time 2 • The observed population at time 2 is subtracted from the expected time 2 population • The residual (or difference) is emigration

12. Residual Method • Strengths • Data are often available for most countries • Calculations are relatively easy • May produce emigration rates by characteristics • Limitations • Prone to error in the residual term • Estimates may not be current • Difficult to measure short-term migration between time 1 and time 2

13. Panel Data Attrition Methods • Attrition of the foreign-born population from panel data is used to estimate emigration • Decompose the attrition from panel data into different parts • Deaths, domestic migration, survey error, and emigration • Two examples are provided in the report • Administrative data • Longitudinal survey

14. Panel Data Attrition Methods • Strengths • Use existing administrative or survey data • Measure short-duration migrations • Produce timely estimates • Limitations • Data requirements are significant • Data sources are not designed to measure migration

15. Indirect Estimation Methods • Indirect estimation methods use data from household surveys on the residence of relatives • Adapted from indirect techniques for estimating mortality • Two basic approaches • residence of children • residence of siblings • Age and sex distributions may be estimated

16. Indirect Estimation Methods • Strengths • Estimates include the recently emigrated population • Questions on the residence of relatives can be added to existing household surveys • Measures the emigration of both the native and foreign-born populations • Limitations • Estimates do not include whole family migrations • Emigration rates can cover long time periods

17. Multiplicity Sampling Method • Also uses data from household surveys on the residence of relatives • Accounts for multiplicity in the sample • Multiplicity is caused when an emigrant has more than one relative that can identify them • Multiplicity adjustment uses probabilities to refine the emigration estimate

18. Multiplicity Sampling Method • Strengths • Similar to the strengths of indirect estimation methods • Adjusts for the double-count of emigrants • Limitations • Similar limitations to the indirect estimation methods • Multiplicity adjustment may have a large impact on the final estimate

19. Conclusion • When released, the report, A Review of Methods for Estimating Emigration, will be a valuable resource document • The project is ongoing and comments or feedback are being solicited • Please send questions or comments to Eric.B.Jensen@census.gov