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A Dirty Word Or A Dirty World?. Attribute Framing, Politics, and Query Theory. David Hardisty, Eric Johnson & Elke Weber Columbia University NSF SES-03455840 & SES-0352062 NIA 5R01AG027934-02 . TAX. The Quayle Conjecture.
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A Dirty Word Or A Dirty World? Attribute Framing, Politics, and Query Theory David Hardisty, Eric Johnson & Elke Weber Columbia University NSF SES-03455840 & SES-0352062 NIA 5R01AG027934-02
The Quayle Conjecture “Our party has been accused of fooling the public by calling tax increases ‘revenue enhancement’. Not so. No one was fooled.”-- J. Danforth Quayle, V.P., 1989-1993
A Paradox? • Leading economists and climate scientists advocate a CO2 tax • Few US politicians mention a CO2 tax • Meanwhile, the carbon offset (and credit) industry allows people to voluntarily pay more
Attribute Framing • Labels make a big difference • People pay more for 75% lean than 25% fat (Levin & Gaeth, 1988) • Doctors & patients prefer survival rate to mortality rate (Marteau, 1980; McNeil, Pauker, Sox & Tversky, 1982) • Women, but not men, prefer an 80% fat-free chocolate bar (Braun, Gaeth & Levin, 1997)
Political Ideology • Strong, reliable individual differences based on political conservatism (Jost, 2006) • Conservatives sensitive to the labeling of financial options (Morris, Carranza & Fox, in press) • Perhaps conservatives are uniquely sensitive to the “tax” label
Predictions • More support for the offset label than the tax label • More support among Democrats than Republicans across conditions • Republicans more strongly affected by the labeling
Study 1: Participants • 275 US Residents • Mean age = 41 (SD = 13) • Recruited and run online • 38% Democrats, 25% Republicans, 37% none of the above • No significant demographic differences among parties
Study 1: Methods • Proposal to increase cost of certain products believed to contribute to global warming through energy use and resulting CO2 emissions • Price increases would fund programs to decrease CO2 levels by funding alternative energies or carbon sequestration • Proposal described as carbon tax or carbon offset (between subjects manipulation)
Study 1: Methods Suppose you are purchasing a round trip flight from Los Angeles to New York city, and you are debating between two tickets, one of which includes a carbon tax [offset]. You are debating between the following two tickets, which are otherwise identical. Which would you choose?
Study 1: Methods • How strongly would you prefer Ticket A or Ticket B? (-2 = Strongly Prefer B to +2 = Strongly Prefer A) • Do you think the carbon tax [offset] included in Ticket A should be made mandatory for all airline tickets sold in the US? (-3 = DefinitelyNot to 3 = Definitely)
Study 1: Methods • Environmental attitudes questionnaire (NEPr, Dunlap et al., 2000) • Demographic questions, including political affiliation
Study 1: Flight Choices 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 Offset Proportion Choosing the Costlier Ticket 0.5 Tax 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 Democrat Independent Republican
Study 1: Flight Choices 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 Offset Proportion Choosing the Costlier Ticket 0.5 Tax 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 Democrat Independent Republican
Study 1: Flight Choices 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 Offset Proportion Choosing the Costlier Ticket 0.5 Tax 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 Democrat Independent Republican
Study 1: Flight Choices 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 Offset Proportion Choosing the Costlier Ticket 0.5 Tax 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 Democrat Independent Republican
Study 1: Gas Choices 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 Offset Proportion Choosing the Costlier Brand 0.5 Tax 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 Democrat Independent Republican
Study 1: Electricity Choices 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 Offset Proportion Choosing the Costlier Option 0.5 Tax 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 Democrat Independent Republican
Study 1: Computer Choices 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 Offset Proportion Choosing the Costlier Computer 0.5 Tax 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 Democrat Independent Republican
Study 1: Preferences 2 1.5 1 0.5 Offset Mean Preference for the More Costly Product 0 Tax -0.5 -1 -1.5 -2 Democrat Independent Republican
Study 1: Support for Regulation 3 2 1 Offset Mean Support for Regulation 0 Tax -1 -2 -3 Democrat Independent Republican
What About Environmental Attitudes? 16 14 12 10 Mean NEPr 8 6 4 2 0 Democrat Independent Republican
Study 1: Environmental Attitudes 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 Tax Proportion Choosing the Costlier Option 0.5 Offset 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 25 50 75 100 Environmental Attitudes (NEPr) Quartile
Study 1: Education 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 Tax Proportion Choosing the Costlier Option 0.5 Offset 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 2-Year Degree or Less Bachelor's Degree Graduate Degree
Study 1: Discussion • Effect of labeling depended on political affiliation • Little is known about the cognitive or affective processes driving attribute framing effects • In Study 2, we explored the cognitive mechanisms underlying preference construction
Query Theory (Johnson et al., 2007) • Preferences constructed from memory • Series of mental queries for and against each option • The resulting balance of evidence determines your preference • Order matters: due to output interference, the second query generates less support
Query Theory: Empirical Support • Endowment effect: ownership changes the order of queries (Johnson et al., 2007) • Intertemporal choice: accelerate-delay effect (Weber et al., 2007) • Reversing the natural order of queries eliminates these effects
Query Theory: Hypotheses • Label will affect ordering of thoughts supporting or opposed to carbon fee • Republicans will have immediate, negative thoughts in response to the tax label • The ordering will affect the balance of support, in turn predicting choices
Study 2: Participants • 373 US Residents • 39% Democrats, 21% Republicans, 24% Independents, 16% none of the above
Study 2: Methods • Participants practiced listing their thoughts • Read description of tax/offset program • Listed thoughts about the two airline tickets • Indicated their choice, preference strength, and support for regulation • Self-coded their thoughts • Reported demographics
Study 2: Choices 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 Offset Proportion Choosing the Costlier Ticket 0.5 Tax 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 Democrat Independent Republican
Study 2: Choices 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 Offset Proportion Choosing the Costlier Ticket 0.5 Tax 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 Democrat Independent Republican
Study 2: Number of Thoughts • Participants listed 2.7 thoughts (SD = 1.4) • No effect of party or frame
Thought Examples • good for the environment • carbon offset is not that much more than regular ticket • what does the extra money do to offset the carbon
Thought Examples • we are taxed too much • I don't want to pay additional tax
Thought Examples • Why would I ever pay extra for this? • I really don't care about a 'carbon tax' • If it's the same thing, get rid of the tax • The government needs to stop taxing us randomly • I will be old or dead by the time this world has an energy crisis • And by that i mean a huge one where we are all f***ed • This is a ridiculous thought to have
Thought Examples • tree huggers • how do I really know which one has carbon emissions? • save the world
Order of Thoughts • Order calculated as the Standardized Median Rank Difference (SMRD) • SMRD scores vary from +1 (supportive thoughts first) to -1 (opposed thoughts first)
Study 2: Order of Thoughts 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 Offset Mean SMRD Score 0 Tax -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 Democrat Independent Republican
Study 2: Content of Thoughts 2 1.5 1 0.5 Offset Mean Supporting Minus Opposed Thoughts 0 Tax -0.5 -1 -1.5 -2 Democrat Independent Republican
Study 2: Thought Order and Content • Order & content highly correlated, r = .68, p < .001.
Study 2: Mediation Frame x Party β =0.82, p < .0001 Choice
Study 2: Mediation Order & Balance of Thoughts β =0.23, p < .05 β =0.87, p < .0001 β =0.84, p < .0001 β =1.43, p < .0001 Frame x Party Choice
Study 2: Mediation Order & Balance of Thoughts β =0.23, p < .05 β =0.87, p < .0001 β =1.43, p < .0001 β =0.84, p < .0001 Frame x Party β =0.82, p < .0001 Choice (β = 0.59, p = .054) Sobel Test, Order: z = 2.3, p < .05 Sobel Test, Content: z = 3.0, p < .001
Study 2: Education 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 Tax Proportion Choosing the Costlier Product 0.5 Offset 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 2-Year Degree or Less Bachelor's Degree Graduate Degree
Study 2: Discussion • Replicates Study 1 • As predicted by Query Theory, differential framing effect driven by a cognitive difference in the order & balance of thoughts supporting each option
Future Directions • Consequential choices • Hot-button word for Democrats?
Thanks to... • My co-authors, Elke & Eric • The National Science Foundation, SES-03455840 and SES-0352062 • The National Institute on Aging, 5R01AG027934-02 • The CRED and PAM labs
A Dirty Word Or A Dirty World? Attribute Framing, Politics, and Query Theory David Hardisty, Eric Johnson & Elke Weber Columbia University NSF SES-03455840 & SES-0352062 NIA 5R01AG027934-02