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Tonight’s Agenda

ronny
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Tonight’s Agenda

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  1. THERE ARE NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM ANY INFORMATION DISCUSSED DURING HAWKTRADE MEETINGS.  Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investment returns and principal value will fluctuate, so that investors' shares, when sold, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Investing in any financial instruments does not guarantee that an investor will make money, avoid losing capital, or indicate that the investment is risk-free. There are no absolute guarantees in investing. HAWKTRADE and its members do not bear any responsibility for losses or gains made by members trading on their personal accounts based on analysis from HAWKTRADE meetings.

  2. Tonight’s Agenda • Nov. Market Recap • Holiday Shopping/ Q4 Economic Data • Fiscal Cliff Takeover • Investment Competition winners

  3. Past 2 Weeks: 2.6%

  4. S&P Recap: 1.08%

  5. Fiscal Cliff talks are holding markets hostage

  6. Blowout Black Friday!

  7. Blowout Black Friday! • Total black Friday sales: 59 Billion • American Eagle, Macy’s, Victoria’s Secret and J.C. Penney saw the largest increase of in-store visits on Black Friday compared to their November average. • In-store foot traffic increased by a factor greater than 4X to these four retailers.

  8. Gun Shopping • This year on Black Friday the FBI fielded 154,873 calls for guns, a roughly 20% increase from last year's previous one-day record of 129,166, according to bureau records. • What does this indicate about the fiscal uncertainty? • Or is this with the uncertainty that Obama will regulate gun control more? http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2012/11/26/black-friday-gun-sales/1727409/

  9. Wed 28 Nov 12 | 06:08 AM ET Cyber Monday Scorecard

  10. Cyber Monday • Online sales rose 17% on Cyber Monday compared with 2011, overall spending up 16% at $16.4 million • Average order dropped 6.6% to $185.12 compared with 2011, but average items per order increased 14% to 8.34 • “Retailers discounted more. They knew there were savvy shoppers online looking for deals… But even with that additional merchandise, the average order volume fell.” – Jay Henderson, Strategic Director for the Smart Commerce, IBM

  11. Retail Sales • Department stores sales were up 43.1% • Apparel sales were up 25.3% • Home goods sales were up 26.8%

  12. **Mobile Spending Easy Leader • Mobile spending is estimated to have contributed 13%+ of sales this season • Mobile is obvious leader over Facebook, YouTube, and Twitter, which generated virtually 0% of sales on Cyber Monday

  13. Case-Shiller Index • Composite of single-family home price indices for the nine U.S Census divisions, updated quarterly • National Composite up 3.6% in third quarter • Cities with positive monthly returns; Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland and New York • Atlanta, Detroit and Las Vegas remain below their January 2000 levels

  14. Jobless Report • 393,000 filed for initial jobless claims during the week • Down from 416,0o0 the previous weeks • First decline since Hurricane Sandy • Pre-storm average was about 370,000

  15. 4-Week Moving Average

  16. Personal Income and Outlays • Personal Income increased $.4 billion or less that .1% • Economists forecasted a .2% increase • Personal consumption expenditures decreased $20.2 billion, or .2% • With inflation, consumer spending fell .3% in October after the .4% rise in September

  17. Consumer Confidence Report • Confidence steady • Job market flat • Housing expectations up

  18. New Home Sales • Had been bright spot • Not anymore • Prices down 4.2%

  19. October Durable Goods Orders • Beat expectations, but numbers are not great • Transportation negatively influenced October data • Transportation component fell 3.1% after a 29.7% increase in September

  20. Durable Goods • Strength in all major industries, except transportation • Suggest manufacturing is not strongly improving

  21. Chicago PMI • Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) measures financial activity based off of managers’ purchases of goods and services • Above breakeven of 50, indicating growth • Backlog orders down for 4th month in a row

  22. Chicago PMI • Led by employment and production growth • New orders down (Fiscal Cliff, Hurricane Sandy)

  23. Santellivs. Liesman Round 36

  24. Santelli: Don’t give me the switcheroo!

  25. Fri 30 Nov 2012 10:02 AM Fiscal Cliff Rewind

  26. Fiscal Cliff Recap- Talks Going Nowhere • Democrats want 1.6T in new taxes on income over $250,000 right now and spending cuts later. • Republicans will do tax raises but only if accompanied by entitlement reform now. (Social Security, Medicare)

  27. White house Fiscal Cliff Offer

  28. 2011 Federal Budget • S.S., Medicare, and Medicaid accounted for 43% of the Budget

  29. 2012 Fall Investment Competition Winners Top 5 best portfolio balances

  30. Investment Competition Prizes • Last place: Free entry to Spring Competition.

  31. Investment Competition Prizes • 5th place: $25 Gift Card- Joe Hudson • 12% return

  32. Investment Competition Prizes • 4th place: 75 dollar Gift card • Charlie Haggett- 33% Return

  33. Investment Competition Prizes • 3rd Place: Apple TV- Leo Franz • 61% return

  34. Investment Competition Prizes • 2nd Place: Beats Headphones • Eric Woodraska - 90% return

  35. Investment Competition Prizes • 1st place: IPAD Mini- TingtingGao • 103% return

  36. Good luck on finals ! • Good luck on Finals! • Keep an eye out for emails! • Admin rolls next semester

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