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Marginal Emissions Factors for the US Electricity System

Marginal Emissions Factors for the US Electricity System. Kyle Siler-Evans Department of Engineering & Public Policy Carnegie Mellon University. Research Question. Energy efficiency is widely seen as the low-hanging fruit for CO 2 reductions. ?. Avoided Energy ( MWh ). Avoided Emissions

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Marginal Emissions Factors for the US Electricity System

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  1. Marginal Emissions Factors for the US Electricity System Kyle Siler-Evans Department of Engineering & Public Policy Carnegie Mellon University

  2. Research Question Energy efficiency is widely seen as the low-hanging fruit for CO2 reductions ? Avoided Energy (MWh) Avoided Emissions (kg) -CO2, NOx, SO2

  3. Data • Continuous Emissions Monitoring System (CEMS) • Hourly, generator level CO2, SO2, and NOx emissions data • Includes fossil-fuel generators larger than 25MW

  4. Method & Example Analysis ΔG = Gh – Gh+1 (MWh) ΔE = Eh – Eh+1 (kg) Marginal CO2 Factor MRO region (Midwest)

  5. Method & Example Analysis Marginal Fuels: MRO Region (Midwest)

  6. Results: Marginal Fuels

  7. Results: Marginal Fuels

  8. Results: Marginal Fuels in SPP

  9. Results: Marginal CO2 Factors +30%

  10. Results: Marginal SO2 Factors 20 ×

  11. Results: Influence of dispatch order MRO (Midwest) System Demand (GW) System Demand (GW)

  12. Results: Influence of dispatch order TRE (Texas) System Demand (GW) System Demand (GW)

  13. Results: Influence of dispatch order FRCC (Florida) System Demand (GW) System Demand (GW)

  14. Results: Temporal Trends SERC (South)

  15. Results: Temporal Trends SERC (South)

  16. Summary & Conclusions • Policies often focus on energy, while our goal is (or should be) on emissions. • Marginal emissions factors give a consistent metric for calculating displaced emissions.

  17. Summary & Conclusions • There are significant regional differences in the emissions benefits of avoiding 1 MWh of electricity. • Compared to WECC (West), an equivalent energy efficiency measure in MRO (Midwest) is expected to avoid roughly 75% more CO2, 12 times more SO2, and 3 times more NOx emissions

  18. Summary & Conclusions • Average emissions rates may grossly misestimate the emissions benefit of an intervention. • Temporal differences are modest in terms of marginal CO2 rates, but more pronounced when considering NOx and SO2.

  19. Thank YouQuestions?

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