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21 st century challenges need enduring solutions

The 3 rd International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) Impacts and implications for policy and decision making Sandy Thomas Foresight, Government Office for Science. 21 st century challenges need enduring solutions. Population

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21 st century challenges need enduring solutions

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  1. The 3rd International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)Impacts and implications for policy and decision makingSandy Thomas Foresight, Government Office for Science

  2. 21st century challenges need enduring solutions • Population • Water resource and food production • Energy security and supply • Health and disease • Environment and climate change • Conflict and terrorism • Sustainability

  3. Foresight Technology Assessment • helping governments to think systematically about the future so that it can develop robust policies for the 21st century • By: • Understanding what types of futures might be possible • Challenging presumptions • Building a more robust approach to the future

  4. Foresight… • UK approach: • Encompassed by FTA methods in 2003 paper • Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA • The Use and Impact of FTA for Policy and Decision Making • FTA in Research and Innovation • FTA in Security and Sustainability

  5. Foresight achieves this in 3 ways: • Foresight Projects: in depth studies looking at big issues 20-100 years in the future • Foresight Horizon Scanning Projects: smaller projects looking at more discrete issues across the entire spectrum of public policy futures 10-15 years in the future • Foresight Toolkits and Networks: look to build futures thinking and share best practice within and across government

  6. Mental Capital and Wellbeing Intelligent Infrastructure Systems Tackling Obesities: Future Choices Sustainable Energy and the Built Environment Detection and Identification of Infectious Diseases Brain Science, Addiction and Drugs Cyber Trust and Crime Prevention Exploiting the Electromagnetic Spectrum Cognitive Systems Flood and Coastal Defence Previous projects

  7. Expert Advisory Group Ministerial/High Level Stakeholder Group GCSA Foresight team Core experts International contributors Stakeholders eg NGOs, RCs Scientific & Engineering Experts Who is involved?

  8. Underpinning review of evidence base Analysis and Implica- tions for policy Action Scoping Systems mapping Qualitative modelling of policy response impact Scenario development Development of quantitative model and analysis Typical project structure

  9. Why a project on obesity? 1997-99 2000-02 1994-96 Female Data shown for England and Scotland Male Source: IOTF Data source: IOTF

  10. Reviewing the evidence base • Epidemiology • Basic biological processes • The eating process • Obesity determinants • Behaviour change • Activity environment • Intervention strategies for prevention & treatment • Lessons learned • Policy & economic context • Social & cultural context • International context • Ethics

  11. Numbers of obese overtake healthy weight around 2016 2007 2050 50% Quantitative analysis (Adult females) Obese Healthy Data source: HSE

  12. Societal influences Individual psychology Individual activity Food Consumption Activity environment Food Production Biology Systems map 7 major sub-systems

  13. anticipation and preparation for change Scenario 1 Scenario 2 RESPONSES Values Individual Social Scenario 3 Scenario 4 react when the need to change is critical, focus on mitigation of impact. Scenario Development Key uncertainty 1: Societal valuesKey uncertainty 2: How we respond to challenges

  14. Impact on future obesity

  15. Technology roadmapping: Point-of-care diagnostics

  16. Impact - typical project outputs • Comprehensive evidence base • Visions of possible futures • Implications for policy • Follow up to achieve action

  17. UK impacts • Flooding project • Examined future flood risks and how Government should respond. Annual costs of £20 billion 2080 • Impacts: • HMT increased the annual budget for flood defence by c.£300m; The approach has now been adopted internationally to assess long term flood risks.

  18. The government response to obesity: • Revised obesity target to reflect a broader ambition to achieve and maintain a healthy weight • Established dedicated Obesity Unit within government reporting to a cross-departmental Ministerial Group and Cabinet Committee • Obesity Unit supported by external Expert Advisory Group, Obesity Observatory and a Delivery Group • Plans to establish a National Partnership with stakeholders • Cross-government obesity strategy - Healthy Weight, Healthy Lives informed by the Foresight report

  19. Impact Influencing government policy: • Improving the robustness of existing policies by acting as a stimulating challenge: UK Futures: Society & Economy 2030 (work in progress) Influencing research agendas: • Investment in research, technology and systems development for detection of infectious diseases: Detection and Identification of Infectious Diseases • Cognitive Sciences Research Programme

  20. Global impacts • Infectious Diseases project • Analysed how the threat from diseases will change in the future and how to respond. Strategic links • Impacts • On the Russian G8 summit Declaration on Infectious Diseases • TSB £55M for diagnostics • Southern African research network; African Union

  21. Global impacts • EU • Nutrition Platform • European Centre for Disease Control • Networking eg EFMN • China - Taihu Basin flooding project • Canadian Animal Health Strategy • US Centre for Disease Control and Prevention

  22. Impact

  23. Current projects • Mental Capital and Wellbeing (MCW) • Sustainable Energy Management and the Built Environment (SEMBE)- Sustainability, Security • Land Use Futures (LUF) - Sustainability • Future of Food and Farming - Sustainability

  24. The principal stages of the Foresight Mental Capital and Wellbeing Project

  25. Horizon scanning is… • Beyond a ‘single expected future’ • to a ‘range of possible futures’ to consider implications for today’s decisions Looking ahead – beyond usual timescales Looking across – beyond usual sources

  26. Evidential tools for HSC Sigma Scan: synthesis of global futures work Institute for the Future www.sigmascan.org Outsights / Ipsos MORI Delta Scan: cutting-edge S&T perspectives www.deltascan.org

  27. Current HSC projects • International Futures Project • UK Futures: Society & economy 2030 • Future of Families 2030 • Future of Communities • Wider Implications of Science and Technology (WIST) • Future of Local Services to the Public

  28. Challenges • Achieving impact • Focus on long term • FTA Methodologies • More social science • Sharing best practice

  29. Conclusion • Foresight increasingly accepted in policy making • Foresight is respected for its strategic impact on policy, through evidence based, peer reviewed analysis • A key role in helping government think beyond the short term to identify enduring solutions

  30. Foresight website • More information about Foresight can be found at: • www.foresight.gov.uk

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