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Recent development in Reanalysis The status of JRA-55

Recent development in Reanalysis The status of JRA-55. Ayataka Ebita (for Chiashi Muroi) Climate Prediction Division Japan Meteorological Agency. Go!. Go!. J. R. A. History of Re-analyses. Courtesy Dr Bill Lapenta@noaa.

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Recent development in Reanalysis The status of JRA-55

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  1. Recent development in ReanalysisThe status of JRA-55 Ayataka Ebita (for Chiashi Muroi) Climate Prediction Division Japan Meteorological Agency Go! Go! J R A

  2. History of Re-analyses

  3. Courtesy Dr Bill Lapenta@noaa

  4. The linear trends are 0.66, 1.02 and 0.94K per 31 years for R1, CFSR and GHCN_CAMS respectively. (Keep in mind that straight lines may not be perfectly portraying climate change trends). Courtesy: Huug van den Dool, CPC

  5. Overview of JRA-55 • providing a fundamental data set for • researcheson climate change and decadal variability in the last half century • real-time climate monitoring • verificationof seasonal forecast and climate models • atmospheric forcing fields for ocean data assimilation, chemicaltransport simulations (ozone, dust) ,carbon cycle simulations etc. • water resource management • estimation of renewable energy resources • severe weather risk assessment 5

  6. Specifications of data assimilation system

  7. Boundary and forcing fields 7

  8. Observations for JRA-55 Conventional AMV Satellite radiances New types of sat obs First time for reanalyses Improved from or added to JRA-25

  9. Fit to radiosonde temperature（Jul,1980） OB-BG (JRA-55) OB-AN (JRA-55) OB-BG (JRA-25) OB-AN (JRA-25) Cold bias in the lower stratsphere is significantly reduced JRA-55 shows better results compared with JRA-25. 90N~60N 60N~20N 20N~20S 20S~60S 60S~90S Bias(K) RMSDifference(K) Data Number

  10. Water budget in Amazon Good agreement with GPCP

  11. Spatial Variability of Precipitation Global Global Ocean Global Land • Improved quality of precipitation, especially over land • Taylor diagrams show the skill reproducing a reference data set • GPCP is the reference • Monthly mean (1980) ●JRA-25 ● JRA-55

  12. Forecast performanceRMSE of 500 hPa height（1979） Much better forecast performance Northern Hemisphere JRA-25 RMSE(m) JRA-55 Operational (2009) Southern Hemisphere RMSE(m) Forecast day

  13. Summary • Improvements from JRA-25 • a longer reanalysis period, extending back in 1958 • much improvedradiation process • much better forecast performance • significantly reduced cold model bias in the lower stratosphere • Improved quality of precipitation, especially over land • reduced dry bias over the Amazon basin

  14. JRA-55 project schedule production completed until Aug 1981 Nov Aug • Aug 2010 start of Stream B （ongoing） • Nov 2010 start of Stream A • Early 2013 completion of production • Mid 2013 product release • Production will be continued as a new JCDAS

  15. Thank you

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