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Technology Forecasting. Question 1: what happens to object A in time T if free to evolve ?. Technology Forecasting. Question 2: what happens if we change object C ?. Technology Forecasting. Forecasting of Technology.
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Question 1: what happens to object A in time T if free to evolve ? Technology Forecasting
Question 2: what happens if we change object C ? Technology Forecasting
Forecasting of Technology • Technology “Applying a systematic technique, method or approach to solve a problem”1 • Forecasting of Technology . . . • Forecasting of Applying, • Forecasting of Systems, • Forecasting of Techniques/Methods, • Forecasting of Solve, • Forecasting of Problems. • Note 1 • The application of science, especially to industrial or commercial objectives. • The scientific method and material used to achieve a commercial or industrial objective.
Technological System Engine Control Transmission Working Means Forecasting of Technology Product Primary Function
Technological System Engine Control Transmission Working Means Forecasting of Technology Product Primary Function
Grinder turn Motor Transmission Control Unit Tool Es.:Forecasting of “Machine Tooling” Work Piece machine
Camera Motor Microprocessor Lens Set Es.:Forecasting of “Photographic Camera” light record Focus adjust
ProSAO II Semantic TOOLS words ProSAO II Parser tag Database Database Task Scheduler Markov Hidden Model GUI Tagger Es.:Forecasting of “Semantic Tool” Technology Nesting concepts show
ProSAO II Parser Markov Hidden Model Tagger Es.:Forecasting of “Semantic Engine” words tag Database
<?> <?> <?> <?> Es.:Forecasting of “<?>” <?> <?> <?>
Methods for Forecast of Technology • Forecasting of Technology • Technology “Applying a systematic technique, method or approach to solve a problem”1 • Forecasting of Technology . . . • Forecasting of Applying, • Forecasting of Systems, • Forecasting of Techniques/Methods, • Forecasting of Solve, • Forecasting of Problems.
Methods for Forecast of Technology • "TIPS" is the acronym for "Theory of Inventive Problem Solving" • "TRIZ" is the acronym for the same phrase in Russian • TRIZ was developed by Genrich Altshuller and his colleagues in the former USSR starting in 1946, and is now being developed and practiced throughout the world. • The research has proceeded in several stages over the last 50 years. • Over 2 million patents have been examined, classified by level of inventiveness, and analyzed to look for principles of innovation.
Methods for Forecast of Technology TRIZ Basics Achievements: • Problems and solutions were repeated across industries and sciences • Patterns of technical evolution were repeated across industries and sciences • Innovations used scientific effects outside the field where they were developed
TRIZforecasting consists these major phases: • Analysis of the system's evolution: study of the history of the system and its position on its "life curve" (S-curve) • "Road mapping“: application of the Laws and Lines of Technological Systems Evolution to forecast functional and structural alterations in the system • Problem formulation: formulation of engineering problems to be solved so as to achieve targets set at theprevious phase • Problem solving: solving the formulated problems by using powerful analytical and solution tools of TRIZ
