GMES Climate Change information

1. GMES Climate Change information Needs and proposed ideas for comment Mikko Strahlendorff, GMES Bureau

2. Global Monitoring for Environment and Security • Vision: bridge Earth Observation information to policy needs • Method: Look at full picture and fill gaps (moving R&D to operational services) partnering with MS, ESA, EEA, EUMETSAT etc • Demonstration and initial operational phase until 2013 • EU program from 2014 onwards

3. Workshops and implementation group consultation • GMES CC information needs have been consulted extensively • EEA reanalysis and GMES climate needs workshop in Feb 2009 • European capacities for space based climate information production workshop in March 2009 • GMES Global Land workshop in May • The GMES earth compartment services (Land, Marine, Atmosphere) Implementation groups have been consulted

4. User needs • Monitoring and reanalysis of all Essential Climate Variables is needed in a sustained way • CC Adaptation needs are emerging strongly • What impacts are to be expected? • How much would they cost society? • What would be the most efficient adaptation? • Impacts are most needed as trends from a more than 30 years history up to ~10-20 years predictions • This involves making best possible time series from all sources and updating them constantly • Translating biogeophysical variables into cost factors, which can be put into socioeconomic models • Impacts can usually only be described combining Terrestrial, Ocean and/or Atmosphere ECVs • Consistency between all ECVs is required

5. Current GMES offering • GMES Earth system compartment services offer ECVs in near real time globally or in Europe • MACC has climate forcing for mitigation policy needs as main target • Atmospheric composition ECVs (space+model) • MyOcean has oceanographic variables • Oceanic ECVs: mainly sub- and surface physical • Geoland2 targets on specific areas • Some terrestrial ECVs • Meteorological infrastructure also offers the atmospheric physical ECVs in MACC

6. Space call 2009 additions • CARBONES: Major mitigation aid. Carbon cycle with CO2 sinks and sources reanalysis for the last 30 years to validate CC models • MONARCH-A: Focus on arctic change analysis on few select terrestrial and ocean ECVs • EURO4M: downscaling global atmospheric reanalysis to fine scale over Europe

7. Current GMES shortfalls • ECV provision still to be enhanced in GMES services • Atmosphere lacks for CFCs • Marine lacks ocean tracers and subsurface biochemical ones • Land lacks many terrestrial ECVs and lacks global/European coverage • Limitedreanalysis (too short term, missing in situ, based on current infra and not coupling enough) • Modelling of variables without real measurement validation (in-situ coverage not adequate) • Most ECV monitoring needs a lot more development to fulfil GCOS requirements • Adaptation needs not covered sufficiently • No past and projected climate impacts information (incl. costs) • No impact modelling (incl. ecosystem approach) • Turning climate and its change information into policy useable form (“low volume”) • Sustained financing for current and future GMES efforts

8. Solutions for shortfalls- potential role of GMES • To sustain production of all ECVs • To ensure the consistency of the whole set of ECVs through coupling of services (e.g. reanalysis) • To address adaptation needs • To turn biogeophysical information into cost factors • To produce “low volume” policy information

9. Earth system services and crosscutting CC services EC RTD: ENV & CC CC model initializa- tion and predictions ESA CCI, EUM SAF or other EO GMES NRT ECVs & thematic history fundamental climate data rec. CC services Delayed consistent long ECV time series Impact/change stats including costs ESA / EUMETSAT / ? satellite data processing LandMCS Impact Models & Statistics Builder Coupled (L,M,A) Global / EU ReAnalysis MarineCS AtmosCS Users: Socio economic Models; Environmental Assessment; Downstream services; Policy Makers; Scientists