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Derivatives Risks and Rewards. Forward Contract. This is a contract with the Bank to buy / sell a specific currency, at a pre-determined exchange rate and on an agreed future date. A Forward contract is binding on both the parties to the contract .
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Forward Contract This is a contract with the Bank to buy / sell a specific currency, at a pre-determined exchange rate and on an agreed future date. A Forward contract is binding on both the parties to the contract. Key Benefit – Protection from foreign exchange market volatility Key Risk – Potential loss due to unfavourable movement in currency market
Regulatory Environment • A person resident in India may enter into a forward contract with an AD in India to hedge an exposure to exchange risk in respect of a transaction for which sale and/or purchase of foreign exchange is permitted under the FEMA Act, or rules & regulations issued, subject to the following conditions: • There has to be a genuine underlying exposure i.e. Forward contracts are permitted only for hedging and not for speculation. • A forward contract can be booked for the following: • an inward / outward remittance for export / import transactions respectively • foreign currency loans / bonds - only after RBI approval, where necessary, has been obtained • The currency of hedge and tenor will be the customers choice • Maturity of the hedge should not exceed the maturity of the underlying transaction
Definition • A Currency Option is a Financial Contract which gives the BUYER (Holder) the RIGHT, but not the Obligation, to exchange a specified amount of currency versus another at a specified rate on, or up to, a specified date. • The SELLER (or Writer) of the Currency Option contract has the OBLIGATION to deliver the specified amount of currency at the specified rate on the specified date. Benefits over Forwards • Options offer Flexibility to not lock in rates. • Can tailor risk / reward to specific client requirements
Terminology Notional : The amount of Currency to be exchanged Call Option : Right to Buy Put Option : Right to Sell Strike : Pre Agreed Exchange Rate Trade date : Start date of the trade Expiry Date : Date on which the Buyer decides to use the option Maturity date : Date of settling the Currency Exchange
Case - Exporter • Customer is an exporter : • Need – To protect against potential USD depreciation against the INR from current levels over the month. Spot Rate : 46.75* Notional : $ 1 mio receiveable 1 month from now ( Jul 24th)
Strategy 1 – Hedging by using Forward Contract • The 1 month forward premia is 2 p. Hence, the forward rate will be 46.77 ( Spot –46.75 + premia 0.02) • 1 month later ; possible scenarios • Scenario 1:US$ has depreciated, say to 46.50 • The exporter receives 46.77 million instead of the market rate of 46.5 million. • He gains US$ 6K by entering into the forward contract • Scenario 2:US$ has appreciated, say to 47.30 • The exporter receives 46.77 million instead of the market rate of 47.00 million. • He loses US$ 5K by entering into the forward contract • There is an option to cancel the contract before the maturity date. The prevailing premia for the remaining tenor will need to be adjusted & the profit / loss will be credited/debited to the account
Strategy 2 –Hedging using Options Customer buys 1 month Put @ 46.75 for $ 1.0 mio Customer pays 0.65 % or USD 6.5k for this option • Scenario 1:US$ has depreciated, say to 46.30 • The importer exercises the option sells at 46.75 million better than the market rate • He gains US $ 10 k by entering into the forward contract. He also paid a cost of $ 6.5K. So net save is $ 3.5k • Scenario 1:US$ has appreciated, say to 47.30 • Customer lets option expire worthless. He would have lost $ 12k by locking into the forward contract; whereas in this case he only loses the premium cost of $6.5k Question: Can I reduce this premium cost?
Strategy 3 – Zero cost Option To offset the cost in the earlier case, customer sells (a) sells a Call [ sells USD buys INR ] after 47.00; (b) sells a Put [ buys USD sells INR @ 46.50] Customer sells Put @ 46.50 for $ 1.0 mio, He receives 0.20% or USD 2000 Customer sells Call @ 47.00 for 1 mio, He receives 0.45% or USD 4500 Customer receives 0.65 % or USD 6500 for this option Scenario 1:US$ has appreciated, say to 46.90 • None of the options get exercised • The exporter sells USD at a favourable market rate of 46.90 Scenario 2:US$ has appreciated, say to 47.30 • Customer enjoys upside on USD-INR from 46.75 to 47.00 for $ 1 mio. • From 47.00 customer is out of money for $ 1 mio to the extent of ( spot rate – 47.0) x $ 1 mio.
Strategy 3 – Zero cost Option Scenario 3:US$ has depreciated, say to 46.60 • The customer exercises the Put option @ 46.75 and gains from 46.75 to 46.60 of $3.2k. The other 2 options do not get exercised. Scenario 4:US$ has depreciated, say to 46.30 • The bank exercises the Put option @ 46.50 and Customer exercises put @ 46.75; customer gains till 46.50 and thereafter he takes a loss of $4.4k on market movement beyond 46.5 till 46.30 for $ 1 mio
Risks • The foreign currency market is a very volatile market, and there is potential for losses in case of adverse movement in currencies • With the FX market open 24 Hours a day, profit target and stop loss levels could get breached • Booking forward contracts might lead to potential losses also in case the actual market rate at time of maturity is worse off than the locked in forward rate, or in case of early pick up • Collateral is taken for booking forward contracts. In cases of adverse currency movements, which results in substantial margin erosion the customer will be required to provide additional margin
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