Fulfilling the Promise of Early Childhood Education in Florida

1. Fulfilling the Promise of Early Childhood Education in Florida Steve Barnett & Karin Garver, NIEER, Rutgers University

2. National Institute for Early Education Research (NIEER) • National early childhood policy research center founded in 2002 • Conduct independent, research-based research and provide technical assistance to inform policy • Multidisciplinary staff from education & developmental psychology to public policy and economics • Review state and city policies for comparison and consistency with “what works”

3. Promise of Early Care and Education Early experience has broad, persistent effects Learning, development, and health Educational, social, and economic success Poor early experience limits future success of many ECE can change the course of development Increased educational achievement and attainment Less abuse/neglect and crime Higher earnings, better health, longer life Well designed ECE has high rates of return Full day programs support parental employment Chicago program had $10:1 return over a lifetime

4. Starting Right: Three Seminal Studies with Low-income Children Perry: half-day preschool in public school, ages 3 & 4, small scale One highly qualified teacher per 6 children, strong leadership Weekly home visits with one-on-one tutoring Abecedarian: birth to age 5 full-day, year round, small scale Well-educated teachers, very small classes, strong leadership Child-Parent Centers: P-3 starting at age 3 in public school, large scale Well-educated teachers, small classes, strong leadership Explicit coordination from preschool through third grade Extensive parent engagement with centers

5. Economic Returns in these Small Scale Studies

6. Strong Returns Require Much Higher Quality than is Typical Today Many current public programs do not deliver the same long-term impacts Some very small, even negative, long-term impacts Head Start RCT found little lasting impact TN state pre-K RCT: initial modest positive effects reverse to negative in primary grades Quebec universal child care negative effects Other programs have been found to have strong long-term gains and economic returns

7. Summary of Research Outcomes Over Time

8. New Studies of Long-Term Effects of ECE New Studies of Long-Term Effects • Nationwide—avg. public school pre-K no effects at 4th grade, higher quality (MA,MD,NC, NJ, OK) do have positive effects • AL, OK, NJ, NC have positive effects on achievement through middle school • GA 3rd grade outcomes are positive for low-income children but negative for others

9. Why is it so hard to produce strong results? Small study outcomes not fully realistic at scale These were best case examples Alternatives (home & other) better than in distant past Easier to produce results for poorest children More importantly, everyone underinvests Parents underinvest Governments underinvest, favor quantity over quality Underinvestment causes 2 major problems Design failure –programs not designed based on goals Implementation failure—not implemented as intended Result is highly variable outcomes and economic returns

10. What Does Research Say Increases Outcomes? TO PRODUCE LARGE & PERSISTENT GAINS • Big, persistent change in early experience • Intentional teaching one-on-one and in small group • Deep learning in unconstrained domains • Language • Mathematics • Character and social behavior (also creativity, dispositions toward learning?)

11. NJ PRE-K Designed to Succeed • Universal, voluntary • High expectations • Adequate funding • Strong teachers • Small classes • Ages 3 & 4 (2 years) • Full day • Public-private provider partnership • Continuous improve- ment system (GPS)

12. Transformation of Quality in NJ Pre-K (Classroom Ratings)

13. NJ Pre-K Effects on Achievement Grades 4 and 5 (in Standard Deviations)

14. NJ Pre-K Effects on Retention & Special Education at Grade 5 Pre-K

15. WHAT ABOUT FLORIDA?

16. Florida’s VPK Program • Mixed delivery open to all 4-yr-old children statewide • Enrollment of 4-year-olds has hovered between 75%-80% since 2011 • Adjusted for inflation, state spending for VPK declined steadily since 2009-10, losing 30% of its value • VPK meets 2 of NIEER’s 10 Quality Standards Benchmarks • 300-hour summer program or 540-hour school year program

17. FL’s Preschool Per Child Spending is Declining

18. Disparity between Florida K-12 and VPK Funding

19. Florida VPK 4 year-old Enrollment and Funding 2018 Ratings Enrollment State Funding

20. Florida VPK Meets 2 of 10 Quality Benchmarks (but 6 more in are easy reach)

21. Children entering kindergarten without skills needed for success according to the state Florida Office of Early Learning. Annual Report 2017-2018.

22. Limitations of FL Readiness Assessment • Provider contribution cannot be determined simply from kindergarten entry assessment • Change from pre- to post- would be better • The FL assessment looks at very narrow skills • The assessment was not designed to predict readiness and its validity is unclear at best • The cut-off for ready appears somewhat arbitrary • Seems at odds with FL NAEP scores

23. Nevertheless…. Reasonable Goals • The data can be used to build public will to invest in improvement • The state is open to using data • Data on observed quality and children’s learning are being collected • Shift focus to your system of continuous improvement—a GPS way of thinking • Better set of measures for learning and development could help long-term

24. Moving FLORIDA Forward Reasonable Goals • Generate a vision of high quality pre-K for all children and families • Set the program standards needed to attain the vision based on proven examples • Determine the required financial investment • Develop a timeline to attain the vision • NIEER has tools that can help plan and is able to support this work

25. A NEW VISION FOR FLORIDA ECE: THE NEXT STEP Reasonable Goals

26. Cost of Preschool Quality & Revenue (CPQ&R)

27. Introduction to the CPQ&R • First developed by NIEER and CEELO in 2016 • Excel based model to estimate the cost of implementing high-quality preschool programs • Includes default settings for “best practice” based on the 10 NIEER quality standards benchmarks • State-level research used to generate costs based on estimated “slot plan” • Illustrates cost implications for various modes of delivery (Public, Private, Head Start) • Illustrates cost implications for various combinations of quality standards (staff degree requirements, PD, staff/child ratios) • Compares current costs against projected future costs over multiple years

28. What questions does the CPQ&R answer? • How much would it cost to serve more children with current quality standards? • How much would it cost to raise quality standards in the existing program? • What are the costs of various state-specific policy proposals • Increased teacher degree requirements/compensation • Increased length of day • Continuous quality improvement system • How much funding is needed over time?

29. What data does CPQ&R provide? This chart illustrates costs to raise dosage, reduce class size and increase teacher degree standards for a hypothetical state.

30. Unit Cost Categories in the CPQ&R The CPQ&R contains default assumptions that vary in their contribution to total cost and degree to which they are supported by external data • Tuition Support • Coaching • Training for Professional Development • Classroom Observations [for CQIS] • Curriculum • Screening NIEER Quality Standards and Benchmarks State-level data is preloaded into the model wherever possible, but can still be further customized. • State Administration [for Monitoring & Oversight] • Capacity Building • External Technical Assistance and Program Evaluation State Level Infrastructure & Supports • Salaries and Wages • Mandatory Benefits • Additional Benefits • Substitutes • Child Meals • Child Transportation • Equipment & Supplies • Facility • Child Assessments • Classroom Materials [& Furnishings] Provider-Level Direct & Indirect Services Note: the default model also includes cost assumptions expressed in total dollars (not unit costs to be multiplied by volumes), and in these cases the default is set to $0. In addition, an “Other” category is defined for certain non-zero default assumptions, such as the inflation rate, that are not readily assigned to one of the categories above.

31. Visioning for VPK What’s Important to Florida?

32. Visioning Exercise: Part 1 • A successful cost model requires a clear vision • Without worrying about costs/funding/politics, what would the ideal VPK program look like in Florida 5 years from now? (Take 5-10 minutes to generate a list of your thoughts and ideas.)

33. Visioning Exercise: Part 2 At your table, discuss the ideas on your list and generate a group list of ideal program features. (Take 15-20 minutes to discuss and have someone record your overall list.)

34. Visioning Exercise: Part 3 • One table at a time, report out on your list. We’ll generate one common list for the whole group. • What are the most common ideas? Are “non-negotiables” emerging? • Where do our visions differ?

35. Acknowledging the Challenges • Program changes are likely to meet some challenges along the way. • Looking at the comprehensive list of preschool program features, what are the anticipated challenges? • Logistical • Political • Financial

36. Next Steps Where do we go from here, and how can NIEER help?