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Methods to Combine Information from Separate Sources

Methods to Combine Information from Separate Sources. Paul VanRaden Animal Improvement Programs Laboratory Agricultural Research Service, USDA Beltsville, MD USA. Freeman’s Philosophy.

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Methods to Combine Information from Separate Sources

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  1. Methods to Combine Information from Separate Sources Paul VanRaden Animal Improvement Programs Laboratory Agricultural Research Service, USDA Beltsville, MD USA

  2. Freeman’s Philosophy “Ideally, however, simple methods of estimation are needed. … As solutions to problems are found and computing algorithms developed, perhaps the goal of simplifying estimation can be achieved.” - A.E. Freeman, 1979 (Conference in honor of C.R. Henderson)

  3. Statistical Methods • Least Squares K. Pearson, 1903 • Selection Index Hazel, 1943 • Mixed Model (BLUP) Henderson, 1963 • Posterior Density Bayes, 1763

  4. Statistical Formulas

  5. More Estimates than Data • MACE (Schaeffer, 1994) • 1 country progeny tests a bull • 25 countries want to use the bull • Best Prediction (VanRaden, 1998) • 10 daily milk yields measured • 305 daily milk yields predicted

  6. Estimates and Reliabilities

  7. Combine Separate Evaluations

  8. Simple Cases

  9. Variances and Covariances

  10. PTA = PA + MS • Remove single-trait (national) PA, remove DEpa from total DE • Combine single-trait to multi-trait (Harris and Johnson, 1998; Weigel, 1998) • Add multi-trait (international) PA • Process oldest to youngest

  11. REL for animal, sire, dam

  12. Multi-trait Productive Life • Predict PL from culling rate and seven correlated traits that arrive earlier: • 3 yield traits, 3 composite type traits, SCS • Include direct and indirect in same matrix • Process both cows and bulls in age order • Run at Beltsville instead of Brattleboro • Fill in other missing traits using multi-trait

  13. Multi-trait PL Results PTA REL Year Method Sex ST MT ST MT 1994 SI bulls .83 1.19 50% 53% 1996 MACE bulls .83 1.00 54% 73? 2000 SI bulls .60 .50 58% 65% 2000 SI cows .33 .39 29% 33%

  14. Reliable Evaluations Evaluation Year Bull REL Cow REL USDA MCC 1974 SI 80 SI 43 Cornell 1976 SM 72 SI 43 Iowa State 1974 --- 80 SI 45 USDA AM 1989 AM 82 AM 46 Interbull 1995 SM 83 --- --- ??? 2001 ??? 84 ??? 47

  15. Bulls with Foreign Relatives(from February 2000 Interbull Evaluation)

  16. Conant-Acres JY Sweetnes 12151074 France (14) Great Britain (10) USA (8 + 7) Canada (4) Germany, Denmark (2) Spain, New Zealand (1) Eric-Dew Mars Marcy 10191243 USA (12 + 2) Canada, Germany (8) France (5) Denmark, Great Britain, Italy, South Africa (2) Australia (1) Cows with Foreign Relatives(42 progeny tested sons)

  17. Parent Data for MACE Reliability of dams from: Mean Max • Belgium 52 84 • Canada 73 96 • Denmark 41 93 • Estonia 39 57 • France 37 61 • Switzerland (Red) 35 80 • The Netherlands 71 96 • United States 77 96

  18. Correlations of MACE Results Range • Corr(SI, BLUP) .989 to .993 • Corr(SI REL, BLUP REL) • Dam REL included .908 to .977 • Dam limited to 25% .977 to .992

  19. Conclusions • Single-trait evaluations can be combined into multi-trait using selection index. • Regressions on PTA - PA instead of PTA reduced bias and increased REL for PL. • MACE evaluations by conversion, selection index, and BLUP were correlated by .99. • International evaluations could adjust for foreign dams as well as foreign daughters.

  20. Thank You • To all of the sources of genetic evaluations • To George Wiggans and Rex Powell for combining the evaluation files • To Gene Freeman for showing me that people from all nations can work and learn together.

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