WATER as a Catalyst for Peace Zaragoza, October 6 th to 9 th

1. WATER as a Catalyst for PeaceZaragoza, October 6th to 9th Case Simulation: Chu-Talas rivers in Kyrgyzstan & Kazakhstan Evolution of bilateral agreements By Shammy Puri, Chairman IAH TARM Commission & Co-coordinator of the ISARM Initiative

2. Structure of the Case Simulations • Overview • Water, Environment & Security • Measuring water poverty • Global freshwater balance • Simulation time spans: • Span I: From the 1800’s to the Soviet era • Span II: to the 1960’s (Khrushchev’s time) • Span III: Contemporary • The future…… (a) business as usual (b) significant improvements • Analysis : alternate outcomes of simulations

3. Water, Environment, Security Through ……… its reliable access, even in the face of increasing demands & thus also to human security – how? fundamental to environmental security Water is 145 nations have part of their territory in a transboundary river basin Large part of mankind thus is a user of transboundary water 261 rivers cross international boundaries 40% of the worlds population lives ‘downstream’ of someone else

4. The global context

5. Indicators of Water Poverty Index

6. Water Poverty Index

7. Global freshwater: in ice caps, rivers & aquifers

8. The region Lake IssyKul

9. Time Span I: 1800’s to 1960’s • The data for this time span is limited • So, use the Aral Sea configuration as a ‘counter’ Aral Sea in 1850

10. Evolution of Sea

11. Snow capped TienShan ranges Lake Issy Kul

12. Time Span II: the Soviet era • What are the water demands? • What is the land use? • What are the population dynamics? Talas river Lake IssyKul

13. The basin of Talas river

14. The developing demands in the Talas Are the development priorities of the two Republics the same or can they be different? (some?) Irrigation, flood protection, alpine meadows, forests, etc (more) irrigation, industry, wetland biodiversity

15. Talas Catchment The data collection system installed in time span II Was it effective? Did it prognose the impacts felt today? 6 5 4 3 2 1 2 Manas Rayon Talas 1 Kirov 4 3 Taraz 12 8 Talas Rayon 6 9 7 11 5 Kazakhstan Kara - Bura Rayon Bakai-Ata Rayon 13 10 Rivers Talaskii Canal Kirov Reservoir Kaz. / Kyg Border Kyrgyz Republic

16. Time Span III: contemporary Now, two countries… separate constitutions, parliaments & priorities Could the Chu-Talas basins represent, in micorcosm, the ‘bigger’ problem?

17. The ‘counter’…to today & beyond Is the Aral Sea an issue of relevance to the newly independent Republic of Kyrgyzstan?

18. A snap shot of the problem

19. Some views

20. The Chu Basin, with less data The Chu Oblast

21. Evolving developments • Waters rise in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan and are used by downstream riparians • Irrigated area was greatly expanded 1950-80 and rivers were regulated • Irrigated agriculture is key to economy and provided jobs for growing population • Dramatic decline in surface of Aral Sea, loss of grazing lands, fisheries, & wetlands, health problems for 3.5 million people from saline groundwater and blowing salts

22. Some outcomes?? Summary: • River basins with nearly fully ‘committed’ water resources… • Socio – economic priorities that are asymmetrical • ……… quo vadis ??

23. Talas Catchment Hydrometric Network • Kyrgyz Hydro Post Station, River and Name • Talas – Ak Tash • Talas – 2.6km downstream of inflow of Koshoi • Talas – Klouchevka • Koshoi – Kara Oi • Besh Tash – head of River Saz • Urmaral – Oktyabrskoe • Kumushtag – head of River Yangi • Bakiyan spring – Bakiyan • Beysheke – • Kara Bura – Koksai gorge • Kirovskie spring – mouth • Chimkent spring – mouth • Kukuryesu - Chonkurchan 6 5 How much is operational ? How much to rehabilitate ? 4 • Kazakh Hydro Post Station, River and Name • Talas – Pakrovka • Talas – Solnichni • Talas – H/P No 5 - Talas Dam • Talas - Temirbet (Dam) • Talas – Jambet • Talas – Uyuk • Hydropost with Ecology Post for Water Quality Measurements • Ecologic post not attached to Hydropost 3 2 1 2 Manas Rayon Talas 1 Kirov 4 3 Taraz 12 8 Talas Rayon 6 9 7 11 5 Kazakhstan Kara - Bura Rayon Bakai-Ata Rayon 13 10 Rivers Talaskii Canal Kirov Reservoir Kaz. / Kyg Border Kyrgyz Republic

24. ..where do we go from here? There are two alternatives • Business as usual • A new paradigm ? • Are there other alternatives , when there is no dispute – but differences in perspective ?

25. To decide this & other issues.. • We need to collaborate • … cooperate, • harmonise our visions, and • harmonise the actions. Through what means……joint commissions ?? …………… and over what sort of obstacles?

26. Obstacles ? Source: Kyle C Robertson (2004)

27. Is it the ‘data’ we need? Or is it the wisdom? Do we need LOTS of procedures, regulations, rules? “ rules are made for fools to follow & wise men to bend..” 6 5 4 • Kazakh Hydro Post Station, River and Name • Talas – Pakrovka • Talas – Solnichni • Talas – H/P No 5 - Talas Dam • Talas - Temirbet (Dam) • Talas – Jambet • Talas – Uyuk • Hydropost with Ecology Post for Water Quality Measurements • Ecologic post not attached to Hydropost 3 2 1 2 Manas Rayon Talas 1 Kirov 4 3 Taraz 12 8 Talas Rayon 6 9 7 11 5 Kazakhstan Kara - Bura Rayon Bakai-Ata Rayon 13 10 Rivers Talaskii Canal Kirov Reservoir Kaz. / Kyg Border Kyrgyz Republic

28. Where the detail, and where the principle ? • Adaptable management structures • Clear, & flexible criteria for water allocation & quality management • Equitable distribution & benefits • Concrete mechanisms to enforce treaty mechanisms • Detailed conflict resolution mechanism

29. Convergence of policies for consistent water resource management Sustainable Water Resource Management Policy Country A Country B

30. Transboundary waters challenges – national to international National priorities Bilateral / multilateral linkages

31. Alternate outcomes (Role Playing is Safe) • .. A land of ‘milk & honey’ • …A land bitter tea and dry bread • …. ? Other ? • Thank you for your participation !!