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Population and Migration

Illegal Migrants entering Greece. Population and Migration. Where is Global Labor going to be in the 21 st century. The Past. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Human_mtDNA_migration.png. Objectives. Review major points on Malthus Where is the World’s Population today and Why?

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Population and Migration

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  1. Illegal Migrants entering Greece Population and Migration Where is Global Labor going to be in the 21st century The Past Demographics and Migration http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Human_mtDNA_migration.png

  2. Objectives • Review major points on Malthus • Where is the World’s Population today and Why? • Where will the World’s labor be concentrated in the 21st Century and Why. • Migration model and impacts Demographics and Migration

  3. Malthus • Hypothesis: In a nutshell food increases arithmetically but population increases geometrically • Result: Eventually food supply drops below demand Demographics and Migration

  4. Malthus • What will happen/can be done? • Positive checks – later marriage, contraception • Negative checks -- Starvation East India Company College Malthus' position as professor at the British East India Company training college gave his theories considerable influence over Britain's administration of India … The most significant result was that the official response to India's periodic famines, The famines were regarded as necessary to keep the "excess" population in check. In some cases even private efforts to transport food into famine-stricken areas were forbidden. http://www.newworldencyclopedia.org/entry/Thomas_Malthus#East_India_Company_College Demographics and Migration

  5. Malthus’s Errors • Industrial Revolution resulted in growth of food output exceeding population growth • Mid-latitude grass lands offer great expanses of new fertile agriculture land • Births not controlled by genes, controlled by social factors • Industrial Revolution results in Demographic Transition – Population growth declines Demographics and Migration

  6. Neo-Malthusians • In the long run Malthus will be correct • It is not just too many bodies (supply) • It is also consumption (demand) • resources will be exhausted • Club of Rome – Limits to Growth • doomsday model predicting collapse of global environment within decades Dr Blackmore declared: "For the planet's sake, I hope we have bird flu or some other thing that will reduce the population, because otherwise we're doomed.“ Nightwaves, BBC Radio 3, Nov. 5, 2008. Demographics and Migration

  7. Neo-Malthusians Will the world collapse? • Doomsdayer’s continue to predict immanent collapse • Lester Brown among most prominent The Washington Post called Lester Brown "one of the world's most influential thinkers." The Telegraph of Calcutta refers to him as "the guru of the environmental movement." In 1986, the Library of Congress requested his personal papers noting that his writings "have already strongly affected thinking about problems of world population and resources." http://www.earth-policy.org/About/Lester_bio.htm Demographics and Migration

  8. Where are we headed? Demographics and Migration

  9. Where has World Population been Centered (Big 4 plus 1) • Five major world concentration • Asia • 1.East Asia • 2. South Asia • Southeast Asia • Europe • 3. Western Europe • North America • 4. East Coast US and Canada Demographics and Migration

  10. World Population Centers -- Today Demographics and Migration

  11. Demographics and Migration

  12. Class Exercise • What are the causes of today’s 4 major population centers in the world • Where might the World’s Migration Streams (origins & destinations) be centered in the 2025? • Why? • What will the impacts be to labor markets, environment, consumption…? Demographics and Migration

  13. Why such centers? • Environmental Factors • Climate • Topography • Quality of Land Resources • Water • Human Factors • Industrial Development • Demographic Transition Demographics and Migration

  14. World Land Use Patterns How does this affect population concentrations??? Note that Manufacturing is concentrated in 4 of the 5 centers Demographics and Migration

  15. Demographics and Migration http://www.unep.org/pdf/Tunza/TunzaV4N1-DesertsDrylands.pdf

  16. Population Density --Global Pattern vs. Dryland Pattern Of the 5 major concentrations only parts of two of them occur in part in semi-arid regions Demographics and Migration

  17. Note Location of 2002 Famines in Africa and Crude Death Rates Crude Death Rate (deaths/1,000 population) Demographics and Migration http://www.indexmundi.com/map.aspx?v=Death+rate(deaths%2f1%2c000+population)&co=af

  18. US Population Density What is the cause of low density here? Demographics and Migration

  19. Note growth and decline in arid west Demographics and Migration

  20. Changes in World Population Distribution Demographics and Migration

  21. Where are future migrants coming from??? Demographics and Migration

  22. How this effects the environment, the world, and us Note the 4 Major impacts on the First World Demographics and Migration

  23. Migration Demographics and Migration

  24. E.G. (Ernest George) Ravenstein (1834-1913) A geographer by trade, most of Ravenstein’s published works on migration came after his retirement in 1874. He spent his career in the Topographical and Statistical Department of the War Office of England after moving there from Germany in 1852. While in their employ he produced numerous publications and maps primarily dealing with Africa. His migration research, especially his two papers on the “laws of migration” were very influential on later work dealing with the structure and process of migration. Although his work focused on current migrations and he was not an archaeologist; Ravenstein had a major impact on migration studies across many disciplines. Demographics and Migration

  25. Ravenstein’s Laws of Migration 1) DISTANCE DECAY: Most migrants only proceed a short distance, and toward centers of absorption. 2) BACK FILLING: As migrants move toward absorption centers, they leave "gaps" that are filled up by migrants from more remote districts, creating migration flows that reach to "the most remote corner of the kingdom." 3) ABSORPTION: The process of dispersion is inverse to that of absorption. 4) COUNTER CURRENT: Each main current of migration produces a compensating counter-current. 5) URBAN CENTER PULL: Migrants proceeding long distances generally go by preference to one of the great centers of commerce or industry. 6) RURAL PUSH The natives of towns are less migratory than those of the rural parts of the country. 7) GENDER SELECTIVE: Females are more migratory than males. Demographics and Migration

  26. Prehistoric Migration of humans Demographics and Migration

  27. Migration in Action http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hcoOENLfpUI&feature=channel Demographics and Migration

  28. Migration: Impacts on Wages Demographics and Migration

  29. Take time to dissect Fig. 3.34 Demographics and Migration

  30. Fig 3.34 Shows • Supply of Labor increases in MDC decreases in LDC due to migration • “Average” Wages in MDC drop, Wages in LDC increase due to migration • For the work force modeled average Standard of Living increases in LDC decreases in MDC (???) Depends also on how goods and services are impacted by lower labor cost – expect trade gains Demographics and Migration

  31. Fig 3.34 Shows • However, historical experience has shown trade and productivity gains thus Quality of Life could increases in both places • However, what if surplus labor in LDC over- whelms the market (internal migrants) wages don’t rise, but under/un-employment drops still a great benefit in LDC • Use rural to urban migration in China as a demonstration of pent-up labor demand Demographics and Migration

  32. Reactions??? Demographics and Migration http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.alamanceind.com/newfol~4/east.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.alamanceind.com/immig/immig.html&h=874&w=680&sz=125&hl=en&start=8&tbnid=DSh73R0fwfOpGM:&tbnh=146&tbnw=114&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dhuman%2B%2522immigration%2522%26svnum%3D10%26hl%3Den%26lr%3D%26as_qdr%3Dall

  33. The West Demographics and Migration

  34. Pro Immigration Canada Demographics and Migration

  35. Demographics and Migration

  36. European Migrant Crisis Demographics and Migration

  37. Demographics and Migration

  38. What about migration within EU? http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jan/28/david-cameron-closing-in-on-deal-brake-benefits-eu-migrants Demographics and Migration

  39. How about Guest Workers? Demographics and Migration

  40. UK reaction to Poles Minute 7:00 really good http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oVP0RRvl2WE Demographics and Migration

  41. To go with PEW reading on Migration Demographics and Migration http://www.pewglobal.org/2014/09/02/global-migra-stocks/

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