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Some developments at ECMWF during 2005

Some developments at ECMWF during 2005. Mariano Hortal ECMWF. Overview. New PBL scheme Wavelet J b in 4D-Var T L 799L91 in preoperational mode T L 2047. Is there any skill in cloud forecasts?. ECMWF PBL parameterization (- 2004) (similar at NCAR, NCEP, Arpege, DWD,…).

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Some developments at ECMWF during 2005

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  1. Some developments at ECMWFduring 2005 Mariano Hortal ECMWF 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana

  2. Overview • New PBL scheme • Wavelet Jb in 4D-Var • TL799L91 in preoperational mode • TL2047 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana

  3. Is there any skill in cloud forecasts? 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana

  4. ECMWF PBL parameterization (- 2004)(similar at NCAR, NCEP, Arpege, DWD,…) moist mass-flux convection dry K diffusion PBL 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana

  5. PBL cloud unification – an MK approachMartin Köhler, ECMWF • key ingredients: • moist conserved variables • combined Mass-flux/K-diffusion solver • cloud variability • transition between stratocumulus and shallow convection 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana

  6. PDF of {w, qt ,ql } Top % of updrafts that are explicitly modelled K diffusion Mass flux {w, qt ,ql } A statistical mass flux framework for organized updrafts 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana

  7. improved marine stratocumulus (MK PBL-old) T511 time=10d n=140 old: CY28R4 new MK PBL 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana

  8. Peruvian stratocumulus: model column vs EPIC observations 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana

  9. European Stratus in December 2004 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana

  10. Wavelet Jb • Wavelet Jb defines the analysis’ “change-of-variable” and the background cost function as: • Index j denotes “scale” (wavenumber band). • The functions Ψj are localized spatially, and in wavenumber. • The Vj are block-diagonal, with vertical covariance matrix blocks, and one block per gridpoint. • Convolution with Ψj limits the influence of Vj to a band of wavenumbers and to nearby gridpoints. • The result is a covariance model that allows both spatial and spectral variation of covariances. 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana

  11. Wavelet Jb – 2D Example • As an example, we illustrate a 2D covariance model on the sphere: approximately-Gaussian structure functions with spatially-varying length scale (300km – 1300km). • The rows of the covariance matrix can be shown by plotting Bx, with x a set of delta functions. • For the wavelet Jb covariance model, we have: 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana

  12. Wavelet Jb – 2D Example • The prescribed length scales are: 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana

  13. Wavelet Jb: Where x is a set of delta functions 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana

  14. Wavelet Jb Scale with σj2 at each gridpoint, and for each scale. 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana

  15. Wavelet Jb Convolve again with 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana

  16. Wavelet Jb • Add together to give: 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana

  17. Wavelet Jb • Example: Horizontal and vertical Vorticity Correlations. North America Equatorial Pacific 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana

  18. Against analysis Against analysis Against observations Against observations 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana

  19. L91 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana

  20. User Meeting: June 2005 Higher horizontal and vertical resolution Anomaly correlation of 500hPa height for northern hemisphere T799 L91 T511 L60 Mean over 148 cases from 1 August 2004 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana Day

  21. User Meeting: June 2005 Higher horizontal and vertical resolution Anomaly correlation of 500hPa height for Europe T799 L91 T511 L60 Mean over 148 cases from 1 August 2004 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana Day

  22. Higher horizontal and vertical resolution Anomaly correlation of 500hPa height for southern hemisphere T799 L91 T511 L60 Mean over 197 00UTC cases from 1 January 2005 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana Day

  23. Statistical significancet test, 500hPa root-mean-square error Green denotes T799L91 better 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana

  24. RMS tropical temperature errors against radiosondes 300hPa 500hPa T511 L60 T799 L91 100hPa 50hPa Day Day 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana Mean over 197 00UTC cases from 1 January 2005

  25. Fit to TEMP observations 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana

  26. Forecasts of KatrinaD+108h T511 L60 T799 L91 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana

  27. Hurricane Katrina at T511 and T799 Observed low of 902hPa T799 959 921 T511 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana

  28. IFS Model Run-times on IBM p690+ * Peak is 7.6 Gflops per PE for IBM p690+ 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana

  29. Profile for T2047on IBM p690+ (768 CPUs) Legendre Transforms ~17% of total cost of model Physics ~36% of total cost 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana

  30. Comparison of profilesat different resolutions 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana

  31. 40km 25km 10km k-3 k-5/3 Spectra of total KE log10k Power spectra of total kinetic energy at T511, T799 & T2047 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana

  32. Case-study of an event of heavy rainfall (orographically induced) with severe flooding in the South of France in September 2002(Observed rainfall in excess of 500mm/24h):Comparison of precipitation forecast (24-48h range) at T511, T799, T1279 and T2047 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana

  33. 10m-Wind for the South of France on 9 September 2002 at 0UTC 10m-wind from T2047 36h-forecast 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana

  34. Total precipitation accumulated over 24-48h FC-range T799 T511 max ~ 150mm max ~ 78mm T2047 T1279 max ~ 321mm max ~ 197mm 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana

  35. Rainfall Verification over South of Francefor T2047 24-48h forecast 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana

  36. Extreme observed rainfall 2002/09/08 T2047 T1279 T799 T511 (ops) Precipitation skill as a function of model resolution 2000/07/18 – 2005/02/15 ACC Z500 ACC PT2 Station location TP 90% confidence intervals indicated 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana

  37. Thank you very much for your attention 27th EWGLAM meeting, Ljubljana

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