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Verification activities at ECMWF. General progress including anomalous winter Other Centres Precipitation, Waves, TCs Extended-range New headline scores for ECMWF. Z500, Time series of ACC=0.6, N.Hem. Z500, RMS skill score N.Hem. SAC 37 Verification 2008. First month of cy36r1 .
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Verification activities at ECMWF • General progress including anomalous winter • Other Centres • Precipitation, Waves, TCs • Extended-range • New headline scores for ECMWF TAC 42 Verification 2010
Z500, Time series of ACC=0.6, N.Hem TAC 42 Verification 2010
Z500, RMS skill score N.Hem SAC 37 Verification 2008 TAC 42 Verification 2010
First month of cy36r1 SAC39 - Report by the Director of Operations
Comparison to ERA-Interim SAC39 - Report by the Director of Operations
EPS probability skill, RPSS, T850 Europe Monthly score and 12-month running mean (bold) of Ranked Probability Skill Score for EPS forecasts of 850 hPa temperature at day 3 (blue),5 (red) and 7 (black) for Europe TAC 42 Verification 2010
Precipitation skill(SEEPS): other centres TAC 42 Verification 2010
EPS precipitation skill: other centres TAC 42 Verification 2010
Waves forecasts – comparison to other centres Wave height 10m wind TAC 42 Verification 2010
EFI verification Verification of Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) for precipitation (left) and 10m wind (right) over Europe. Trend in annual performance (ROC area) from 2004 to 2010 for day 2 (blue) and day 5 (red). Extreme event is taken as an observation exceeding 95th percentile of station climate. Hit rates and false alarm rates are calculated for EFI exceeding different thresholds. TAC 42 Verification 2010
Tropical cyclones TC predictions for 12-month periods ending on 14 July each year. TAC 42 Verification 2010
Floods in Pakistan SAC39 - Report by the Director of Operations
Seasonal forecast – Nino SST, annual range EUROSIP forecasts of SST anomalies over the NINO 3.4 region of the tropical Pacific from July 2009, December 2009 and May 2010. Showing the individual ensemble members (red); and the subsequent verification (blue) TAC 42 Verification 2010
JJA forecasts (precip) init:May Beijing ECMWF Exeter Melbourne Montreal Moscow Seoul Tokyo Toulouse Washington From WMO Lead Centre http://www.wmolc.org/ Downloaded on 1st July TAC 42 Verification 2010
2010 Hurricane season Verification: 1/7/10-15/09/10 TAC 42 Verification 2010
Proposed headline scores for 2011-2020 Lead time until which the Z500 hPa ACC for the deterministic FC over the extra-tropical N.Hem remains above 80% (verification against analysis). Primary Lead time until which the CRPSS for the EPS FC of T850 hPa over the extra-tropical N.Hem remains above 25% (verification against analysis). Primary Lead time until which the SEEPS skill for the deterministic FC of 24-hour precipitation over the extra-tropics remains above 45% (verification against station observations). Supplementary Lead time until which the CRPSS for the EPS FC of 24-hour precipitation over the extra-tropics remains above 10% (verification against station observations). Supplementary Plus two severe weather ‘scores’ for monitoring progress TAC 42 Verification 2010
Primary headline score for deterministic forecasts TAC 42 Verification 2010
Primary headline score for probabilistic forecasts TAC 42 Verification 2010
Supplementary headline scores for deterministic (left) and probabilistic (right) precipitation forecasts TAC 42 Verification 2010
Supplementary headline scores for severe weather Mean position error (km) of the 3-day deterministic forecast for all TCs occurring globally in 12-month periods ending on 30 June. Skill of the EFI for 10m wind speed at forecast day 4 (72-96 hours); TAC 42 Verification 2010
