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Nanotechnology Forecasting

Nanotechnology Forecasting. The NSU Group. Raymond Su Steve Woltosz Lauren Godfrey Shahram Sangari. MGT-555 Technology Forecasting and Strategic Planning March 20, 2000. Agenda. What is Nanotechnology? Who is Zyvex? Strategic Management at Zyvex Five Forecasting Environments

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Nanotechnology Forecasting

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  1. Nanotechnology Forecasting The NSU Group Raymond Su Steve Woltosz Lauren Godfrey Shahram Sangari MGT-555 Technology Forecasting and Strategic Planning March 20, 2000

  2. Agenda What is Nanotechnology? Who is Zyvex? Strategic Management at Zyvex Five Forecasting Environments Technical Environment Economic Environment Ecological Environment Political Environment Social Environment Summary

  3. What is Nanotechnology? Nanotechnology is molecular manufacturing Nanotechnology proposes the construction of novel molecular devices possessing extraordinary properties The trick is to manipulate atoms individually and place them exactly where needed to produce the desired structure

  4. Who is Zyvex? Zyvex was founded in April 1997 by Jim Von Ehr, in Richardson, Texas Zyvex is the first company founded to develop molecular nanotechnology Zyvex is a developmental engineering and directed research company With a 5-10 year time horizon for its first revenue, it is one of those rare startups that need not be focused on near-term profits

  5. Strategic Management at Zyvex • FORMULATE • Mission Statement: none published to public • DEVELOP • Company Profile: Zyvex is the first molecular nanotechnology development company. They are creating technology for atomically precise manufacturing. • ANALYZE • Company’s Options: Zyvex is a developmental engineering and directed research company currently funded at a level sufficient to do both its own research and sponsor directed research grants to universities doing research in complementary fields. They see a 5-10 year time horizon for their first revenue. • INDENTIFY • Most Desirable: Zyvex’s goal is to build one of the key pieces of molecular nanotechnology; the assembler

  6. Strategic Management at Zyvex • IMPLEMENT - The Strategy • Business opportunities will follow the development of Molecular Nano- Technology (MNT), somewhat in line with how the capabilities are likely to develop • Phase 1: Make precise structures one at a time • Phase 2: Make nanostructured materials in volume • Phase 3: Make complex objects in quantity • Phase 4: Make a nanocomputer • Phase 5: Make autonomous devices (power source, programming)

  7. Environmental Interactions Diagram

  8. Technical Environment Forecasts Computing Technology CPU’s Billions of Times Faster Diamond Memory Molecular Machines for Medical Use The Nanoglobin Oxygen Transport Vehicle Self-Assembling Consumer Goods The Universal Assembler Forecasting Techniques Used: Trend, Delphi (NGT), Normative, Scenario1 1 Not an actual forecast technique according to Bright in Practical Technology Forecasting, 1998

  9. Economic Environment Forecasts Forecasting Techniques Used: Trend, Delphi (NGT), Normative, Scenario1 • Contemporary Labor • Concept of Money • Future Quake • Market Economy 1 Not an actual forecast technique according to Bright in Practical Technology Forecasting, 1998

  10. Ecological Environment Forecasts Friendly Energy Solar Cells Generator Goodbye Dumpsites Chemical & Nuclear New Green Manufacturing Zero By-Products Waste Positive Impact Agriculture High Performance Greenhouses The Vivisectionist Solution Cellular Probe & Metabolic Models All of these tend to employ a variant of the Delphi (NGT), Normative, and Scenario1 Forecasting Techniques 1 Not an actual forecast technique according to Bright in Practical Technology Forecasting, 1998

  11. Political Environment Forecasts FY 2001 Budget Request includes a $227 million increase for nanotechnology; should increase dramatically over the next 20 years National Nanotechnology Initiative (NNI) Long-term fundamental nanoscience and engineering research Centers and networks of excellence Research infrastructures Ethical, legal, societal implications and workforce education and training Indefinite Life Spans: How to deal with the possibility of overpopulation Increased healthcare, welfare, and social security costs Arms Race & the Next World War

  12. Social Environment Forecasts Changing Dynamics in the Workforce Fewer jobs; especially in manufacturing/skilled labor Possible Elimination of the Need for Currency Computer-Human Interfaces: could lead to vast imbalances of power in society Potential for Mass Annihilation By Out-of-control Nanobots Forecasting Techniques Used: Delphi (NGT), Scenario1 1 Not an actual forecast technique according to Bright in Practical Technology Forecasting, 1998

  13. Summary Nanotechnology at Zyvex Forecasting Environments Forecasting Techniques Used Trend Delphi Normative Scenario

  14. See Ya in the “Future”!

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