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NCEP Coordinated Ocean Modeling

NCEP Coordinated Ocean Modeling. COPC WG/CSAB meeting 2013. Hendrik L. Tolman and Avichal Mehra Hendrik.Tolman @ NOAA.gov Avichal.Mehra@NOAA.gov. NOAA - Navy. Commonalities Need of eddy-resolving global model capabilities, particularly at weather time scales.. Joint development work.

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NCEP Coordinated Ocean Modeling

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  1. NCEP Coordinated Ocean Modeling COPC WG/CSAB meeting 2013 Hendrik L. Tolman and AvichalMehra Hendrik.Tolman@NOAA.gov Avichal.Mehra@NOAA.gov

  2. NOAA - Navy • Commonalities • Need of eddy-resolving global model capabilities, particularly at weather time scales.. • Joint development work. • Differences: • Mission • Public versus internal. • Weather-interactions etc. versus acoustics etc. • Other collaboration: • NOAA as portal for Navy data. • Potential for mutual backup (not set up formally yet). • Leveraging of development (HYCOM – NOPP – ESPC).

  3. Navy - NOAA • HYCOM (RTOFS at NOAA and GOFS at Navy) used at OPC, NHC and WFOs for marine services. Used by NOS for boundary data. • NOAA will have to transition to GOFS 3.1. • HYCOM in RTOFS at NOAA. • Forecast model operational at NCEP since. • Signed MOU on transitioning NCODA to NCEP. • NCEP presently relying on Navy NCODA results. • Need to transition to GOFS 3.1 with different number of vertical levels.

  4. NCEP Oceans • Five major efforts: • Eddy resolving ocean modeling. • Eddy resolving ocean initialization. • Coupled modeling for hurricanes. • Coupled modeling for weather – CFS / NEMS. • Episodic tracers (with shelf life) • All RTOFS models based on the community HYCOM model, NCEP and Navy are part of the HYCOM consortium. RTOFS-Atlantic Operational 2005 Operational 10/25/2011 RTOFS-Global Live testing RTOFS-HWRF Under development RTOFS-NEMS Operational 07/24/2012 RTOFS-ET-Pac

  5. NCEP Oceans • Seasonal and inter annual effort: • GODAS and MOM4 in present NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFVv2). • This is a collaboration with NOAA / OAR / GFDL, and will not be discussed in detail here.

  6. RTOFS-Global • Push to global model (vs. regional models): • Satisfy requirements from NOAA SAB (2004). • Provide BC for regional models (HWRF, NOS, IOOS). • Adopting existing 1/12° model from NRL (NOPP). • GFS forcing (including diurnal cycle). • Timeline: • Operational 10/25/2011 with NRL/NAVO (NCODA) initialization (daily feed from NAVO). • FY2012: Upgrade products, analyze forcing. • FY2015: full initialization at NCEP. • Strong collaboration with Navy. • Accelerated implementation by estimated 10 years, using half the annual resources (HR) otherwise needed. • Now with MOU on NCODA at NCEP.

  7. RTOFS-Global

  8. RTOFS-Global • EMC became US government lead on ocean plume modeling for Fukushima ocean contamination. • Collaboration in large Interagency work group. • Leveraging modeling from Navy, DTRA, NOS. • NCEP Navy model data distribution point. • CONOPS to rapidly generate actionable information for decision makers. • Product 1: Surface particle tracing to identify potentially contaminated areas. (April 6, 180 d) • Product 2: Contamination estimates using particle tracing + HYSPLIT atm. Deposits. (April 20, 180 d) • Product 3: Full dispersion model as passive decaying tracers, using direct release (NOS) and atm. deposit (NCEP) (In operations at NCO, shelf live)

  9. RTOFS-Global http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/global/plume Enabling Fukushima response Discontinue Dec 31, 2013 http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/global/tracers

  10. RTOFS-HWRF • Ongoing experiments • Real time parallel runs since 2009. • Tentatively to operations in 2014: • Navy collaboration through HFIP – NOPP by building generic coupler for atmosphere – wave – ocean. • COAMPS-TC / HWRF • SWAN – WAVEWATCH III – UMWM • NCOM – HYCOM (RTOFS) TPC JTWC / ITOP TPC

  11. RTOFS-NEMS • Working on 0.25 degree HYCOM for coupling to weather models (GFS, CFS). • Model setup and free runs successful. • Climatological flux bias corrections successful. • Loose collaboration on forcing with NRL-Stennis. Climatological run, no flux correction Same but with flux correction Interannualrun, 1993-2009

  12. Wind waves • WAVEWATCH III model developed at NCEP, but now one of the leading community models. • NRL-Stennis and NRL-Monterey actively involved in development for several years. • FNMOC operational for more than a decade. • Joint development for hurricanes with FNMOC. • NAVO transitioning from WAM to WAVEWATCH III. • NOPP project on next generation wave model physics with many partners: • NOAA / Navy (NRL-Stennis), USACE, BOEM. • Teams from Australia, France, Netherlands, Canada and US. • Other partners in development include MetOffice and BoM.

  13. Wind waves • FY 2011 • Joint FNMOC – NCEP wave ensemble. • NUOPC-NAEFS. • Much improved products on 00z and 12z cycles. • FY2014: • Add members from Environment Canada.

  14. Thank You !

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