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In situ networks and measurements - European phenological networks

In situ networks and measurements - European phenological networks. Prof. Dr. Annette Menzel 1 , Dr. This Rutishauser 2 , Dr. Elisabeth Koch 3 1 Ökoklimatologie Wissenschaftszentrum Weihenstephan für Ernährung, Landnutzung und Umwelt Technische Universität München

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In situ networks and measurements - European phenological networks

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  1. In situ networks and measurements - European phenological networks Prof. Dr. Annette Menzel1, Dr. This Rutishauser2, Dr. Elisabeth Koch3 1Ökoklimatologie Wissenschaftszentrum Weihenstephan für Ernährung, Landnutzung und Umwelt Technische Universität München menzel@forst.tu-muenchen.de 2 University of Bern, Switzerland 3 ZAMG, Austria An International Workshop on the Validation of Satellite-based Land Surface Phenology Products, 18.6.2010

  2. Europe

  3. Historical networks in Europe • Famous single site centential data series, such as Marsham record in the UK, grape harvest dates in Central Europe, Swiss phenological records .. • Carl von Linné, the father of modern plant phenology, established the first phenological network in Sweden (1750-1752) • Network of the Societas Meteorological Palatina (1781-1792) • International Phenological Gardens since 1957 • Many networks established by national meteorological and hydrological services, breakdown after world war II, partly recovered, new cuts after 1990

  4. Information about current networks • Schwartz 2003 book • EPN Phenological meta data base http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~rachimow/epn/html/frameok.html • COST725 www.cost725.org database at the ZAMG • PEP 725

  5. PEP725 PEP 725 Pan European Phenology DB 5 years programme of EUMETNET and ZAMG • D1 Development, operations and management of the PEP725 database • D2 Development, operations and management of the PEP725 webportal • Participants & Partners Swedish National Phenology Network SWE-NPN, Fondazione Edmund Mach-Instituto Agrario di San Michele all’Adige, GDR 29687 Observatoire Des Saisons, Finnish Forest Research Institute Muhos Research Unit, Lithuanian Arricultural institute, Skre Natur- og Miljøvurdering, Trinity College Dublin, Wageningen University national meteorological services from: ZAMG - Austria, RMI - Belgium, DHMZ – Croatia, FMI – Finland, DWD – Germany, OMSZ – Hungary, Met Èireann – Ireland, Met.no – Norway, IMGW – Poland, RHMSS – Serbia, EARS – Slovenia, AEMet – Spain, MeteoSwiss – Switzerland, CHMI - Czech Rep., NMAR – Romania, SHMÚ - Slovak Rep Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik

  6. stations in 201005 PEP coverage and observation scheme

  7. PEP database structure and quality control

  8. The footprint of climate change First to formally link observed global changes to human-induced climate change IPCC 2007, WG II, Ch 01 / Rosenzweig et al. Nature 2008

  9. Phenological response in Europe (COST725) Bud burst / flowering: - 2.5 days / decade Fruit ripening: - 2.4 days / decade Agriculture - 0.4 days / decade Autumn: + 0.2 days / decade n~120.000 1971-2000 Menzel et al. GCB 2006, IPCC AR4 WGII Ch.01 2007

  10. Farmers activities Leafing, flowering Fruit ripening Leaf colouring Temperature response Menzel et al. 2006

  11. Europe - Phenological change pattern matches climate change R2 = 47% Spring phases: leaf unfolding flowering migration Menzel et al. GCB 2006

  12. Locations of significant changes in observations “It is likely that warming caused by human activities has had a discernibleimpact on many physical and biological systems at the global level” “Many natural systems on all continents and some oceans are affected by regional climate change (rising temperatures)” IPCC 2007, WGII, SPM

  13. Location and consistency of observed changes with warming Rosenzweig, .. Menzel, .. Estrella, .., Nature, et al. 2008

  14. The inherent problem • Agriculture – Forestry • Canopy – understory • Subpixel mixing • LULC • Farm management • ....

  15. NOAA AVHRR captures snow drop & forsythia flowering

  16. NOAA AVHRR are more variable in autumn

  17. NOAA AVHRR growing season is too long ...

  18. Plant phenological metrics

  19. Plant phenological metrics at a regional scale 2x2° • Ground plant phenologyLand Surface Phenology (NDVI)Temperature • high correlation at large scale • local scale? Rutishauser et al. 2007, JGR; Stöckli & Vidale 2004, IJRemSen; Studer et al. 2007, IJBiometeorol

  20. Solution: Plant phenological metrics by PCA • Summary • Re-interpreting existing data sets • Define a green-up index • Based existing multi-species data sets • Statistical estimation for fill gaps • Integrated view of the phenology of a landscape • Applications • > 8’000 sites in Cost725 European phenological data base • Comparisons with LSP and model: ground truth and verification • Climatic impacts on green-up indices • Gap-free data set for e.g. extreme climatic event studies

  21. 20-40 40-60 60-70 70-80 80-90 90-100 100-110 110-120 120-130 130-140 140-150 150-160 >160 b a Figure 3.3. Comparison of the SOS the ‘green wave’ (a) and simulation of leaf unfolding of Betulapendula (b) over 1982-1994: average date in DOY (a-b). Comparison to modelled ground phenology

  22. Calibration of ground measures to which SOS estimate ? White et al. 2009

  23. Good correspondance to GPP

  24. Summary “The story remains difficult … ” • Current phenological data are not online available (+1.5 years) • Europe is most variable concerning networks, species, spatial coverage and density, availability despite COST 725 and PEP 725 efforts • Many phenological observations to interpret satellite measures are lacking, e.g. second cropping in autumn, unusual management (irrigation, ..) • Phenological data requires quality control and spatial interpolation • Similarly, SOS, EOS, LOS measures out of satellite products most variable

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