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NCEP Status Update Joint APSDEU-11/NAEDEX-23 Annual Meeting

NCEP Status Update Joint APSDEU-11/NAEDEX-23 Annual Meeting. Michelle Mainelli NOAA/NWS/NCEP Central Operations 3 May 2011. Topics. Current and Future NOAA High Performance Computing New Data Usage and Acquisition Recent Model Upgrades Planned Model Upgrades Model Diagnostics

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NCEP Status Update Joint APSDEU-11/NAEDEX-23 Annual Meeting

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  1. NCEP Status UpdateJoint APSDEU-11/NAEDEX-23Annual Meeting Michelle Mainelli NOAA/NWS/NCEP Central Operations 3 May 2011

  2. Topics • Current and Future NOAA High Performance Computing • New Data Usage and Acquisition • Recent Model Upgrades • Planned Model Upgrades • Model Diagnostics • Development Priorities • NCWCP Building

  3. NCEP Computing Update High Performance Computing 3 APSDEU-11 / NAEDEX-23 – NCEP Update – May 2011

  4. Current High Performance Computing Capability Gaithersburg, MD • IBM POWER6 P575 • Operational August 2009 • 73.1 Tflops Linpack sustained • #78 & #79 Top 500 Jun2010 • 156 POWER6 32-way Nodes • 4,992 processors @ 4.7GHz • 20 Terabytes of memory • 740 Terabytes of disk space • 18 PB tape archive Fairmont, WV 4 APSDEU-11 / NAEDEX-23 – NCEP Update – May 2011

  5. NOAA R&DSupercomputing • Gaithersburg, MD (NCEP) • IBM P575 Supercomputer System • 44 Power6 32-way Nodes • 1,408 processors @ 4.7 GHz • 5.6 Terabytes of shared memory • 190 terabytes of disk space • 18 Petabyte tape archive • Princeton, NJ (GFDL) • SGI Supercomputer • 5248 Itanium processors • 10.3 TB of memory • 516 TB of disk space • 6.8 PB of tape storage • Boulder, CO (GSD) • APPRO Supercomputer • 1440 Woodcrest Xeon processors • 1.5 TB of memory • 168 TB of disk space • 0.5 PB of tape storage 5 APSDEU-11 / NAEDEX-23 – NCEP Update – May 2011

  6. NCEP Production HPC Performance Growth 6 APSDEU-11 / NAEDEX-23 – NCEP Update – May 2011

  7. Production System Utilization 7 APSDEU-11 / NAEDEX-23 – NCEP Update – May 2011

  8. Product Timeliness Yearly Average 2006: 99.42% 2007: 99.70% 2008: 99.82% 2009: 99.85% 2010: 99.83% 8 APSDEU-11 / NAEDEX-23 – NCEP Update – May 2011

  9. Future Operational HPC • Request For Proposals posted to FedBizOpps.gov on Jan 12, 2011 • RFP is to acquire advanced high performance computing systems (HPCS) to meet NOAA’s operational computing requirements. The new primary and backup Weather and Climate Operational Supercomputing System (WCOSS) will replace the current operational HPCS platforms at NCEP headquartered in Camp Springs, Maryland.  • Completed proposal packages were due March 31, 2011 • Delivery, subject to the availability of funds, is anticipated for award in October 2011. • Contract will consist of a 5 year base period with a 3 year option period and a 2 year transition option. The total duration of the contract, inclusive of all options, shall not exceed 10 years. • The amount of all orders placed under the contract shall not exceed $502M. 9 APSDEU-11 / NAEDEX-23 – NCEP Update – May 2011

  10. Future R&D Computing • Site A – CMRS “Gaia” Oak Ridge National Lab • Now: Cray XE6 LC – 259 TF, 1288 24-core nodes • Feb 2012: Cray XE6 LC - 1106 TF, 3760 32-core nodes (aggregate) • Site B – Fairmont, WV • Expected availability late 2012 • System architecture and size TBD • Gaithersburg R&D system “Vapor” will be replaced by NOAA Site B 10 APSDEU-11 / NAEDEX-23 – NCEP Update – May 2011

  11. Enabling Architecture

  12. FY10 – FY11 NCEP Computing Activities New data Usage and Data acquisition 12 APSDEU-11 / NAEDEX-23 – NCEP Update – May 2011

  13. Conventional Data Received APSDEU-11 / NAEDEX-23 – NCEP Update – May 2011

  14. Non-Conventional Data Received APSDEU-11 / NAEDEX-23 – NCEP Update – May 2011

  15. Non-Conventional Assimilated Data APSDEU-11 / NAEDEX-23 – NCEP Update – May 2011

  16. New Observations andBUFR/GRIB Packages • AP-RARS Data – March 2010 • WAFS GRIB2 updates – September 2010 • New BUFR Library V9.0.0 – January 2011 • GRIB2 Library Upgrade – September 2010 & March 2011 • Radar Level II Conversion – 4bit to 8 bit – January 2011 • New lightning data transition to operations – February 2011 • NASA Langley Cloud data decoder – March 2011 • Radar Level II to handle Dual-Pol – March 2011 • JASON-2 assimilated into RTOFS – April 2011 APSDEU-11 / NAEDEX-23 – NCEP Update – May 2011

  17. New Observations andBUFR/GRIB Packages • GOES-13 replaced GOES-12 – April 2011 • METEOSAT - Clear sky radiances – final testing in GBL-GSI • European Radio-Acoustic Sounding System data – working on decoder • Ingest Canadian Radar data – under evaluation • AXBT and TDR Data from NOAA P-3 – under evaluation • E-AMDAR data – under evaluation • ENVISAT decoder update – final testing • European METNET GPS IPW (still need !!!) • European METNET VAD winds (still need !!!) APSDEU-11 / NAEDEX-23 – NCEP Update – May 2011

  18. FY10 – FY11 NCEP Computing Activities Recent Model Upgrades 18 APSDEU-11 / NAEDEX-23 – NCEP Update – May 2011

  19. Recent Model Upgrades • February 2010 - GEFS - Resolution upgrade T126 to T190 (~ 70 km) • All cycles out to 16 days • Introduce Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) Products to be realigned in files on FTP servers • Changes will impact the products generated for NAEFS • March 2010 – RUC • RUC 3DVAR analysis • 13 km horizontal • Extending forecasts to 18hrs & include Canada AMDAR • May 2010 - Global Multi-Grid Wave Model upgrade • Generate GRIB2 output fields • Increase internal spectral model resolution • Increase spectral resolution of point output • May 2010 – HWRF Model upgrade • Changes in the surface physics module • Include synthetic GOES imagery and simulated radar reflectivity • Include assimilated satellite radiances APSDEU-11 / NAEDEX-23 – NCEP Update – May 2011

  20. Recent Model Upgrades • July 2010 – GFS – Resolution Increase • From T382 to T574 0-192 hrs (~35 km to ~27 km) / T190: 204-384 hrs • Upgrade to Shallow/Deep Convection and Upgrade to PBL • September 2010 – RTMA – Resolution Increase • From 5 km to 2.5km - Add RTMA Hawaii and Guam • October 2010 – SST – New SST 0.25 degree resolution • Used in support of CFS V2.0.0 & for ocean forecasting • February 2011 – NAEFS V10.0.0 • NCEP 20+1+1 members, out to 16 days, 4 times per day • CMC 20+1 members, out to 16 days, twice per day • FNMOC 20+(1) members, out to 16 days, twice per day • March 2011 – CFS V2.0.0 • Reanalysis of the atmosphere, ocean, land and sea ice using a coupled background guess forecast • Total of 16 runs every day out to 45 days (weeks 1-6), four of which will go out to 9 months (monthly and seasonal) APSDEU-11 / NAEDEX-23 – NCEP Update – May 2011

  21. FY11 – FY12 NCEP Computing Activities Planned Model Upgrades 21 APSDEU-11 / NAEDEX-23 – NCEP Update – May 2011

  22. Planned GFS Model Upgrades • May 2011 – Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) Upgrade • Analysis Changes • Improved OMI QC • Removal of redundant SBUV/2 total ozone and retune errors • Inclusion of SBUV and MHS from NOAA-19 • Removal of AMSU-A NOAA-15 • Improved GSI code w/optimization and additional options • Ambiguous vector quality control for ASCAT (type 290) data • Model Changes • New Thermal Roughness Length – reduce low level warm bias over land • Set minimum moisture value in Stratosphere to 1.0E-7 to reduce stratospheric cooling • Reduce background diffusion in the Stratosphere to reduce the strato. negative wind bias 22 APSDEU-11 / NAEDEX-23 – NCEP Update – May 2011

  23. Planned GFS Model Upgrades Hurricane Season Hurricane Season Hurricane Season Jan 11 Jul Jan 12 Jul Jan 13 Jul • Global Data Assimilation • Hybrid EnKF – 3DVar – FY12Q2 • Global Model • Semi-Lagrangian Dynamics – FY12Q3 • T878K64 (~22 km) or T1148L91 (~18km) GSI/GFS Hybrid EnKF 3dVar Semi-Langrangian GFS HWRF HWRF HWRF Next CCS Upgrade 1X current System 1 Oct 2013 9X 2014/15 23 APSDEU-11 / NAEDEX-23 – NCEP Update – May 2011

  24. Planned May – June 2011 Model Upgrades

  25. Planned July – Sept 2011 Model Upgrades 25 APSDEU-11 / NAEDEX-23 – NCEP Update – May 2011

  26. Planned FY12 Model Upgrades 26 APSDEU-11 / NAEDEX-23 – NCEP Update – May 2011

  27. Model Diagnostic Activities Forecast Divergence Project 27 APSDEU-11 / NAEDEX-23 – NCEP Update – May 2011

  28. GFS Diagnostic Activities • Forecast Divergence Project • OBJECTIVE: • Develop a monitoring system to analyze differences between the NCEP and FNMOC global models and the ECMWF global model in real-time and make this real-time system available to OPCs as a daily tool. • GOALS: • Develop a web site to present the correlations and associated graphics • Develop an alert method and work flow when correlations meet the defined criteria • STATUS: • Forecast-Forecast Correlations are showing promise in predicting dropout situations in real-time • The supporting Extreme Analysis Differences will give users the ability to understand the nature of the predicted dropout • The alert mechanism and the web site will be available for general use in early May 2011 28 APSDEU-11 / NAEDEX-23 – NCEP Update – May 2011

  29. Forecast-ForecastCorrelation Compute correlations between the GFS and the ECMWF anomalies to climatology Compute the correlations for both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres Potential dropouts predicted by correlations The black line represents the current criteria value for generating an alert 29 APSDEU-11 / NAEDEX-23 – NCEP Update – May 2011

  30. Forecast-ForecastCorrelation A B C D 30 APSDEU-11 / NAEDEX-23 – NCEP Update – May 2011

  31. Forecast-ForecastCorrelation • Areas A, B and D on the previous graph are significant dropouts • The ECMWF also exhibited less skill, and resulted in borderline significant forecast-forecast correlations • Area C shows a situation where the ECMWF exhibited high skill and the GFS did not • This example is shown in detail in the Extreme Analysis Differences 31 APSDEU-11 / NAEDEX-23 – NCEP Update – May 2011

  32. Extreme Analysis Differences • Compute the locations of the relative extrema for each parameter for each level • Rank and order the extrema • Display a localized domain centered on the extrema Location of highest ranked analysis difference 32 APSDEU-11 / NAEDEX-23 – NCEP Update – May 2011

  33. Data Assimilation: Future Development Priorities 33 APSDEU-11 / NAEDEX-23 – NCEP Update – May 2011

  34. Development Priorities / Data Requests • Data • Improved Quality Control • Developing station specific quality control • NPP/NPOESS – GOES-R • Developing Radiative Transfer and Data Handling • Must be ready before launch • Data from the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) project • Data from the Satellite with Argos and Altika (SARAL) • Are there any algorithms for determining bird migration patterns over Europe and Japan? Needed to properly QC wind profiler data from Europe and Japan • Advanced Assimilation Techniques • Improved implementation process of models 34 APSDEU-11 / NAEDEX-23 – NCEP Update – May 2011

  35. New Building update 35 APSDEU-11 / NAEDEX-23 – NCEP Update – May 2011

  36. NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction • Defined requirements for 268,762 RSF • Includes housing 800+ Federal employees, contractors, and visiting scientists • 5 NCEP Centers • NESDIS research and satellite services • OAR Air Resources Laboratory Revised Construction Schedule 36 APSDEU-11 / NAEDEX-23 – NCEP Update – May 2011

  37. Questions ??? “From the Sun to the Sea… Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin” 37 APSDEU-11 / NAEDEX-23 – NCEP Update – May 2011

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