IN THE HOT SEAT: Global Climate Change and its effect on us

1. IN THE HOT SEAT:Global Climate Change and its effect on us Udo Fehn University of Rochester

2. The average temperature across the contiguous United States in 2012 was 55.3° (3.2° above normal). This ranks as the warmest year since records began in 1895. Record-Setting Heat Across the U.S. in 2012 Rochester DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN 2012 (in oF) +6o +4o +2o 0o -2o Days Below normal Above normal Los Angeles 187 160 Atlanta 118 236 Boston 129 225 Chicago 114 245 Houston 135 221 Source: Accuweather; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration New York 127 228 Phoenix 117 241 San Francisco 219 133 Seattle 197 154 Washington 109 247

4. CO2 and Global Warming • What we know for sure: • Release of CO2 (and other gases) from fossil fuel use • Increase of ‘greenhouse gases’ in the atmosphere • What we know with great likelihood: • Temperature increase • Changing weather patterns • Melting of ice (glaciers; sea ice) • What we expect to happen • Changing precipitation pattern • Sea level rise • Changes in ocean currents and wind patterns

5. End of 2012: 395 ppmv

6. Source: Global Climate Change -- Earth Science Communications Team at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory/California Institute of Technology (data from NOAA)

7. Source: IPCC Working Group I Fourth Assessment Report Summary

8. The Carbon Cycle This diagram of the fast carbon cycle shows the movement of carbon between land, atmosphere, and oceans in billions of tons of carbon per year. Yellow numbers are natural fluxes, red are human contributions in billions of tons of carbon per year. White numbers indicate stored carbon.

9. Fuel burning – examples:Coal: C + O2 CO2 Natural Gas: CH4 + 2O2  2H2O + CO2 Where does CO2 end up? ~ 50 % in atmosphere  global warming ~50% in oceans  ocean acidification

13. infrared visible ultraviolet

15. The Hockey stick (Micheal Mann)

16. Source: NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)

17. A map of predicted global warming at the end of the 21st century accourding to the HADCM3 climate model with a business-as-usual emissions scenario (IS92a). This model has an average warming of 3.0°

18. Manageable (?) Climate Target

19. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's findings on recent changes in temperature, sea level, and snow cover Courtesy IPC Secretarist/World Meteorological Organization

21. NYSERDA 11-18 From Global to Regional: Consequences for our region

22. CO2 and Global Warming • What we know for sure: • Release of CO2 (and other gases) from fossil fuel use • Increase of ‘greenhouse gases’ in the atmosphere • What we know with great likelihood: • Temperature increase • Changing weather patterns • Melting of ice (glaciers; sea ice; Great Lakes) • What we expect to happen • Changing precipitation pattern • Sea level rise • Changes in ocean currents and wind patterns

23. Increase in CO2: Annual cycles small compared to overall increase in CO2 CO2 not a limiting factor for plant growth

26. Observed and projected ‘hot’ days in New York State

28. Observed trends in NYC

29. Sea level rise in NYC

30. Precipitation : Water deficit

31. Agriculture: Increase in pests and/or plant diseases

32. Summary • Global Warming is real and will have global consequences • Regional Consequences – Upstate New York • Temperature increase • Longer growing seasons; new crops • Less snow cover, diminished pest kill-off • Appearance of new pests/diseases • Precipitation changes • Influence on growing patterns • Influence on water availability and quality

33. Sources • Regional – Upstate NY • NYSERDA 11-18 • Union of Concerned Scientists – Global Warming – Regional Studies • A short list of players in the climate debate • Michael Mann • Gavin Schmidt • James Hansen • Bill McKibben • Stephen McIntyre