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Aerospace Technology Roadmap Development Research

Research conducted by Angie Kelic and the Product Development Focus Team on technology roadmap development for aerospace applications, addressing timescale discrepancies and historical perspective to plan for technology obsolescence.

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Aerospace Technology Roadmap Development Research

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  1. Technology Roadmap Development February 12, 2001 Presented By: Angie Kelic Research Sponsored By the Product Development Focus Team

  2. Agenda • Review of research motivation • State of the literature • Goals of the research • Progress to date

  3. MotivationTimescale Discrepancy • Clockspeed (in the product) • Slower developing (example: airframe) • Faster developing (example: electronics) • Product development timescales • Electronics – 2 years • Military aircraft - ~20 years • Product lifetime • Electronics – 18 months • Military Aircraft > > 10 years

  4. MotivationThe Problem • Leading to: • Obsolescence in newly operational systems • Difficulty in upgrade programs • Technology obsolescence “It is essential to be aware of, and plan for, changes that are likely to occur in COTS hardware and software products.” – USAF Scientific Advisory Board report

  5. MotivationHistorical Perspective • Why now? • Military percent of semiconductor market • 1960s - ~10% • Today - < .03% • No incentive for specialized parts • Intel left the market • Motorola left the market

  6. MotivationPossible Solutions • Lifetime buys • Guess and stockpile • Aftermarket manufacturers • Repair issues • No learning curve/improvement • Requires fund for stockpiling • Congressionally risky

  7. MotivationTechnology Planning • Technology roadmapping • Identify critical product needs/system requirements • Identify process and performance targets • Determine technology alternatives • Set milestones for meeting targets • May select and pursue multiple alternatives to mitigate risk • In use in aerospace for technology planning

  8. What Is Roadmapping?State of the Literature • Very little (~7 articles) – mostly review of the SIA process • Exploratory thesis, 4 companies – case study • Communications systems • Electronic components • Engines • Printing systems

  9. What Is Roadmapping? The Component Parts • Forecasting • Planning • Decision making • Design (Kappel, 1998)

  10. Research Goals • Explore the roadmapping process in aerospace • Characteristics of roadmap development • Characteristics of the roadmap • Use of roadmaps (or substitutes) • Comparisons to earlier exploratory work and examination of trends • Explore the accuracy of the forecasts in roadmapping using the SIA roadmaps as a case study

  11. Research Procedure • Survey on the roadmapping process • Survey on the use of roadmaps • Statistical analysis of SIA roadmap forecasts and reality

  12. Roadmap Creation Survey • 37 responses to date • ~75% military programs • Some response inconsistencies • Preliminary analysis complete • Likely to obtain additional data with data gathering effort for Roadmap Use Survey

  13. Position

  14. Type of Program

  15. Degree Held

  16. Roadmap Creation

  17. Roadmap Use

  18. Roadmap Update Frequency

  19. Number of Technologies Roadmapped

  20. Roadmap Cost

  21. Roadmap Timespan (years)

  22. Information Sources

  23. Information Sources

  24. Primary Information Sources

  25. Primary Information Sources

  26. Information Sources(All and Primary)

  27. Team Creation

  28. Team Membership

  29. Review

  30. Reviewers

  31. Distribution

  32. Critical path items • Final process survey data manipulation and write-up • Roadmap use survey data gathering (need more data, esp. from commercial programs)

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