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Surprise Snow Storm December 28 th 2012

Surprise Snow Storm December 28 th 2012. Ben Miller Meteorologist National Weather Service – St. Louis, Missouri. Overview. My Midnight Shift Forecast Model Forecast Data from 00Z December 28 th 2012 HPC Snow Forecast My Snowfall Forecast What Happened? Radar Imagery

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Surprise Snow Storm December 28 th 2012

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  1. Surprise Snow Storm December 28th 2012 Ben Miller Meteorologist National Weather Service – St. Louis, Missouri

  2. Overview • My Midnight Shift Forecast • Model Forecast Data from 00Z December 28th 2012 • HPC Snow Forecast • My Snowfall Forecast • What Happened? • Radar Imagery • Total Snowfall Map • Where Did The Forecast Go Wrong? • Satellite Imagery • Synoptic Analysis • An Ageostrophic Response • Banded Snowfall Potential

  3. 00Z FCST 12/28/12

  4. 12Z FCST 12/28/12

  5. 00Z FCST 12/29/12

  6. 500 mbVorticity Maximum from the 00Z forecast on 12/28/12 ECMWF GFS x x x x NAM x x 12Z 12/29 SREF x WRF x x x x x 00Z 12/29 x x GEM x x x x 00Z 12/28 x x x x 12Z 12/28

  7. HPC Mid Shift Snowfall FCST for 12/28/12 4-6”

  8. My Snowfall Forecast

  9. So What Happened? Surprise!

  10. Observed Snowfall from 12/28

  11. How Did That Happen?

  12. 00Z 28 December 2012

  13. 12Z 28 December 2012

  14. 00Z 29 December 2012

  15. X

  16. 00Z 12/28/12 24 HR FCST of 295K Mixing Ratio and Ageostrophic Wind

  17. 00Z 12/29/12 00 HR FCST of 295K Mixing Ratio and Ageostrophic Wind

  18. 12Z NAM FCST on 12/28/12 KFAM Red: Omega Yellow: Elevated CAPE

  19. Summary • Shortwave was a little stronger and took on a slightly negative tilt • Coupled jet developed • Ageostrophic flow brought richer moisture farther north/northwest • Limited instability allowed for banded precipitation

  20. Questions and or Comments…Except for Fred

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