Globalization , Urbanization and Food Security

1. Globalization, Urbanization and Food Security Prof. Bruce Frayne University of Waterloo, Canada July 28 – August 8, 2014 AFRICAN EUROPEAN RESIDENTIAL SCHOOLUniversity of Botswana

2. Do we have a food ‘problem’?

3. Scale

4. Scale • 20 billion meals/day

5. Scale • 20 billion meals/day = 634 yrs @ 1 meal/sec

6. Scale • 20 billion meals/day = 634 yrs @ 1 meal/sec • Exponential population growth http://ed.ted.com/lessons/how-folding-paper-can-get-you-to-the-moon

7. Unprecedented Transitions

8. Unprecedented Transitions Source: The Great Acceleration, 2011; http://anthropocenejournal.com/about/

9. Unprecedented Transitions • Population

10. Unprecedented Transitions • Ecosystem loss

11. Unprecedented Transitions • Urbanization Source: BBC, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/world/06/urbanisation/html/urbanisation.stm

12. Using these transitions, the focus is: Food security in a global and urban world

13. Outline • Global Change • Urbanization • Food Security • Bringing it all together: Challenge questions

14. Global Change

15. Global Change • Planetary Boundaries – a safe operating space for humanity • 28 scientists • System limits • Johan Rockström, et al., 2009 Nature461, 472-475 (24 September 2009) |  doi:10.1038/461472a; Published online 23 September 2009

17. Global Change • The Great Acceleration • 1800s – Industrial Revolution • 1950 – Anthropocene

18. The Great Acceleration • Can humanity feed itself in the 21st century?

19. The Great Acceleration • Can humanity feed itself in the 21st century? • FAO reports that 70% more food is needed by 2050

20. The Great Acceleration • Can humanity feed itself in the 21st century? • FAO reports that 70% more food is needed by 2050 • Changing diets, growing population, rising incomes, diminishing ecosystem services

21. Food Security in the Last 100 years • Green revolution – 1950s • Gene revolution - 1900s – hybrids - 1980s – biotechnology

22. 1950 – present: increase in food supply due to: • Farm machinery • High tech fishing boats and equipment • Inorganic fertilizers • Irrigation • Pesticides • Genetic modification • Factory feedlots • Aquaculture

23. Some results… • 1950-1990: tripled global grain output • Per capital food production rose by 36% • Average food prices dropped by 25% • Global meat production has risen 50 consecutive years • Global trade in food volumes quadrupled • Persistent hunger / uneven access to food (entitlements)

24. Impacts of uneven food availability Malnutrition • 1 billion chronically malnourished • 2 billion micronutrient malnourishment • 10 million die each year (50% children) from under-nutrition, malnutrition and normally nonfatal diseases • Malnutrition-poverty cycle

25. Impacts of uneven food availability Over-nutrition • Food energy intake > energy use • 1:6 adults in developed countries are overnourished (1:3 USA) • Leading cause of death after smoking • $60 billion spent annually by US consumers trying to lose weight • Amount needed to eliminate under/malnutrition in the world? - $20 billion • Cost to US health care system and economy ~ $120 billion per year

26. Abundance – at what cost? • Require increases in food production over next 30 years (to feed 10 billion) • 40% of world’s agricultural land is ‘seriously degraded’ (IFPRI, 2000) • New study reveals that environmental damage threatens future world food production • World food production is at risk from farming methods that have degraded soils, parched aquifers, polluted waters, and caused the loss of animal and plant species (IFPRI, 2001 press release)

27. What is the challenge? • Population growth: 9-11 billion (2050) • Slowing of global grain production • Decline in per capita grain production • Rangelands and oceans nearing productive limits (under current technology) • If we all ate a ‘developed nation’ diet, the world’s agricultural system would support 2.5 billion people (30-40% calories from animal products) • Distribution of food uneven (poverty, politics, bioclimate…) • Breach of planetary boundaries

28. Urbanization

29. Urbanization • How many cities in Africa have populations in excess of 1 million? (hint: Africa is the LEAST urbanized continent)

30. Urbanization • How many cities in Africa have populations in excess of 1 million? 50

31. Urbanization • Urban transition began with the Industrial Revolution • Imagine this….

32. Industrial revolution • 1800there were no railways, no cabs, no buses, no telegrams, no telephones, no gas, no electric-light, no Metropolitan Police

33. Industrial revolution • 1800there were no railways, no cabs, no buses, no telegrams, no telephones, no gas, no electric-light, no Metropolitan Police • 1900 all of these existed

35. Current transitions in poorest countries

36. Demographic and urban transitions • Good news by 2100? • What are the development implications? • Americas • Europe • Asia • Africa • Hans Roslings pin codes: 1114 to 1145

37. Urbanization • Building a new city of four million people every 3 weeks • Consider the environmental demands • Consider feeding 70 million new urbanites every year for the next 50 years

38. Urbanization • China’s urban transition • The single largest and most rapid urban transition in the history of the planet China’s Great Uprooting: Moving 250 Million into Cities http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/16/world/asia/chinas-great-uprooting-moving-250-million-into-cities.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

39. Why is our planet urbanizing? • What is the relationship between urbanization and development? • Do developing countries benefit from urbanization? By what measures? www.gapmider.org

40. Cities are the new ‘development frontier’ • Our future is urban • Cities generate health and wealth • Cities are the key to ending population growth • Cities consume vast quantities of resources • Cities need to be fed Stewart Brand http://www.ted.com/talks/stewart_brand_on_squatter_cities.html

41. Reminder of where we are • Global Change – the Great Acceleration and planetary boundaries • Urbanization – global transition, focus on the developing countries; cities as the new ‘development frontier’ • Now we consider Food Security within these contexts

42. Food Security in an Urban World

43. Food Security in an Urban World Food is available at all times, that all persons have means of access to it, that it is nutritionally adequate in terms of quantity, quality and variety, and that it is acceptable within the given culture. Source: Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO)

44. Food Security in an Urban World Food is available at all times, that all persons have means of access to it, that it is nutritionally adequate in terms of quantity, quality and variety, and that it is acceptable within the given culture. Source: Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) What about: Sustainable food production? Right to food? Food sovereignty?

45. Food Security in an Urban World Ecosystem limits • How and where we produce food is critical to sustainable production • Current model is fossil fuel dependant

46. Food Security in an Urban World Ecosystem limits • How and where we produce food is critical to sustainable production • Current model is fossil fuel dependant Social goals • Food and nutrition = human development • Poverty and inequality = hunger • Access to food is a major challenge in cities

47. Food Security in an Urban World Ecosystem limits • How and where we produce food is critical to sustainable production • Current model is fossil fuel dependant Social goals • Food and nutrition = human development • Poverty and inequality = hunger • Access to food is a major challenge in cities Economic issues • Cost of food through the value chain • Commoditization and trade of food (positive and negative) • Price is key to access, especially in cities

48. Environmental Impacts Source: Sequence 22-31 from Darrell, B. Planning for Food Security, 28 July 2008 (feasta.org)

49. 88 million barrels a day... Modern global economy: • transport, agriculture, housing, industry, services... • EVERYTHING (159l/barrel; 10 barrels a second) Key uses: - need to feed additional 3-4 billion people • 10 oil calories for every 1 food calorie • natural gas – nitrogen – ammonia fertilizer • pesticides and herbicides • 75% CO2 from human activity over the past 20 years • water extraction / irrigation • transportation

50. Our industrial food system is... Vulnerable Dependent on cheap, abundant energy Dependent on technological innovation/substitution Inefficient Full costs are externalized at all points in the supply-consumption chain Hunger amidst plenty syndrome Unsustainable Hydro carbons are finite Environment is finite (but can regenerate)