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Small Group Evolution

Scott Atran et al, Marc Sageman. Rajesh Kasturirangan, Kobi Gal. Small Group Evolution. Whitman Richards. AFOSR MURI Review 17 Dec 07. The Problem. Number of Graphical Forms:. Typical Group Representation:. n=6: 110 n=8: 850

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Small Group Evolution

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  1. Scott Atran et al, Marc Sageman Rajesh Kasturirangan, Kobi Gal Small Group Evolution Whitman Richards AFOSR MURI Review 17 Dec 07

  2. The Problem Number of Graphical Forms: Typical Group Representation: n=6: 110 n=8: 850 n=10: 10 million n=12: 150 billion A Picture is NOT worth 1000 words !!

  3. Proposed Solution: Three subgraphs that capture key properties of group formation Leadership: L = 1.0 Bonding: B = 1.0 Diversity: D = 0.92

  4. Leadership: L = 0.67 (1.0) Bonding: B = 0.875 (1.0) Diversity: D = 0.33 (0.92) L ~ normalized sum of diff in vertex degrees B ~ avg. number of among vertex & neighbors D ~ num. K2 separated by at least two edge steps (Non-adjacent clusters of Kn increase diversity.) L, B, D parameters are not independent

  5. Question Can only three parameters (L,B,D) adequately describe a group during its evolution (i.e, is this compression of pictorial information sufficient) ? Ans: Yes ! but ……. modeling the evolutionary dynamics will require the application of theories for strategic play….

  6. An Example of Group Formation & Evolution (to illustrate strategic aspects and model form)

  7. Note: adding a cluster reduces overall bonding

  8. Equilibrium? What’s Next?

  9. Small Group Evolution: example

  10. CASE STUDIES Start-up Company Madrid Militant Group

  11. Start-up Evolution

  12. Madrid Group Evolution

  13. 3. Is there an optimal evolutionary path ? (e.g. context, internal vs external forces on group, objectives ) Summary 1. L, B, D parameters describe Small Group evolution (pictures are not always worth 1000 words) 2. Evolution entails strategic play (game theoretic) Future => analysis of patterns of strategic reasoning

  14. Ring Banten Group An-Nur Group Kompak Group Accommodations Group = Lukmanul Group = Ngruki Ties = an-Nur Group = Ring Banten Group = Kompak Group = Afghan Ties = Misc Other + = Dead = Arrest Core Bombing Group

  15. Disjoint dipoles are separated by at least two edge steps Definitions n = number of vertices; di = degree of vertex vi (Non-adjacent clusters of Kn which increase diversity.)

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