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UAV’s, the coal miners canary, weather and climate

UAV’s, the coal miners canary, weather and climate. There are ultra-sensitive regions of the atmosphere that exert an undue influence on weather and climate. ‘Targeted observations’ may offer an glimpse of the processes responsible and might promote early prediction of impending change.

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UAV’s, the coal miners canary, weather and climate

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  1. UAV’s, the coal miners canary, weather and climate There are ultra-sensitive regions of the atmosphere that exert an undue influence on weather and climate. ‘Targeted observations’ may offer an glimpse of the processes responsible and might promote early prediction of impending change. Graeme Stephens Colorado State University

  2. New measurement needs? • Set the tone? • What are the ‘unique’ capabilities of UAVs and how might they match measurement needs?

  3. The concept of sensitive regions (weather)

  4. This is the underlying concept of THORPEX

  5. Measurement needs are perhaps elementary - perhaps profiles of T, q and wind (e.g. dropsondes +??) but the crucial need is to respond quickly to provide these measurements in sensitive regions

  6. The concept of sensitive regions (climate) Regions of the atmosphere for which changes induced by external or internal forces lead to feedbacks that amplify the effects of the forcings One such region is the upper troposphere where the climate is acutely sensitive to hydrological cycle processes that occur there

  7. Sensitivity of the surface warming to water vapor increase at different vertical levels 100 (mb) 200 500 1000 60S 30S EQ 30N 60N Courtesy of Held and Soden (2000) Stronger effect weaker effect

  8. Sensitivity of the surface warming to water vapor increase at different vertical levels 100 (mb) Surface warming is most sensitive to water vapor changes in the upper troposphere 200 500 1000 60S 30S EQ 30N 60N Courtesy of Held and Soden (2000) Stronger effect weaker effect

  9. Clouds also get in the act - they can act as a positive feedback to heighten the climate sensitivity to these regions The relation between convection, cirrus, water vapor is central to elementary climate feedbacks

  10. Very high & very cold cirrus is very efficient in trapping outgoing longwave radiation (thus warming the surface) but has a weaker effect on solar radiation. Cirrus Warming

  11. A wild idea: Despite the increase of total water vapor expected in a warmer climate, stronger convection may enhance subsidence far removed from convection that dries the upper troposphere and thus affects the strength of water vapor feedbacks. Subsidence drying Subsidence drying Lindzen (1990)

  12. Another possibility: Stronger convection in warmer climate rains out more water, leaving less for cirrus. Since cirrus warms the climate, less cirrus has a cooling effect. Lindzen et al. (2001) Colder Sea Surface Temperature Warmer Sea Surface Temperature

  13. Gets up here? How much of the air from here? Measurement of atmospheric state, Water contents (ice and vapor) Microphysics… Aerosol chemistry But also measurement of tracers? Isotopes of water? Ozone???

  14. Summary UAVs potentially offer capabilities for providing key in situ observations of inaccessible but highly sensitive regions of the atmosphere.

  15. Measurements in remote sensitive regionsOver the horizon?

  16. Payload

  17. Duration Sustained 24 hr measurement In situ profile capability

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