1. FY10-11 GIMPAP Project Proposal Title Page

1. 1. FY10-11 GIMPAP Project Proposal Title Page • Title: Improved use of GOES tropical cyclone intensity change and formation • Project Type: Product Improvement and GOES Utilization • Status: New • Duration: 2 years • Leads: • John Knaff NESDIS/StAR/RAMMB • Mark DeMaria NESDIS/StAR/RAMMB • Other Participants: • Andrea Schumacher CIRA/Texas A&M • Jack Dostalek CIRA/CSU

2. 2. Project Summary • Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change • Improve forecasting of Tropical Cyclone to Extra-Tropical Cyclone Transition (ET) using GOES data and environmental conditions • Improve forecasting of Rapid Weakening (RW) not associated with landfall using GOES & environmental conditions • Tropical Cyclone Formation • Improve the probability of detection and decrease the false alarm ratio using GOES image processing techniques.

3. 3. Motivation/Justification • Supports NOAA Mission Goal(s): Weather and Water • Tropical Cyclone (TC) forecasts affect risk mitigation activities of industry, public and governmental sectors • Improving TC intensity forecast is a top NOAA/DOD priority • Better understanding of ET and RW cases will result in improved intensity forecasts. • Operational techniques for non-landfalling RW TCs currently do not exist • There are no operational guidance tools for identifying when a storm has completed ET. Existing forecasts/determination are subjective. This is important as other agencies can take over warnings/forecasts. • Forecasts of TC formation remains a difficult problem • Forecasts of TC formation are an operational requirement • Many sectors (e.g., US Navy) need long leads to mitigate TC events.

4. 4. Methodology Extra-tropical transition (ET) - Warm-Core Symmetric cyclone to Cold-Core Asymmetric cyclone • Use GOES imagery and GFS-based environmental predictors • Discriminate the phases TC, ET, Mid-latitude Cyclone (MC) (define what constitutes ET) • Asymmetries-environment/imagery • Build on Hart and Evans (2003) • Determine precursors of ET – When will ET begin/end? Probabilities of? • Determine precursors of weakening & intensification during ET • Adapt the Statistical Hurricane Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) to better account for ET. Courtesy of Prof .Bob Hart, FSU

5. 4. Methodology Rapid Weakening (RW) • Use GOES Infrared in combination with environmental predictors • Define RW in terms of intensity change per day. • Identify the climatological, environmental and convective conditions associated with RW. • Develop a tool to discriminate between TCs that will and will not experience RW • Develop Screening • Discriminant Analysis • Probability product • Develop predictors that help SHIPS improve forecasting of RW TCs. Hurricane Lili 2002 125 to 80 kt in 18 hours

6. 4. Methodology Improvement of the GOES Tropical Cyclone Formation Product. • Improved the current GOES TC formation product that uses average quantities (Water Vapor imagery, environmental factors) in 5ox 5o fixed boxes • Improve detection and tracking using advanced image processing • Gradients of brightness temperature provide (Pineros et al. 2008) • The degree of symmetry/organization • The relative TC intensity • This would help identify • Small systems • Systems forming in complex environments • Systems with multiple centers Courtesy of Prof. Liz Ritchie, U. of Arizona

7. 5. Expected Outcomes • If successful, methods to predicted ET and RW will pursue PSDI or Joint Hurricane Testbed funding for implementation within the existing operational SHIPS model run at NCEP/TPC • Potential stand-alone ET probability product • Potential stand-alone RW probability product • If successful, new methods to improve the utilization GOES imagery using gradient symmetry/intensity calculations will pursue PSDI funding to apply them to the current operational product.

8. 6. FY10-11 Milestones FY10 Milestones • Identify ET and RW cases • Construct imagery and environmental databases associated with ET • Construct imagery and environmental database associated with RW • Begin code development that creates image gradient calculations (edge detection) with GOES imagery • Begin examination of how edge detection tracking may improve TC formation probabilities

9. 6. FY10-11 Milestones FY11 Milestones • Analysis of ET • Statistical (regression, discriminant) analysis • Adapt results to SHIPS database & possible stand-alone index • Test & document • Analysis of RW • Statistical (regression, discriminant) analysis • Adapt results to SHIPS database & possible stand-alone index • Test & document • Continue the examination of how edge detection tracking may improve TC formation probabilities • Adapt to existing product • Test & document

10. 7. Funding (K)

11. 9. Expected Purchase Items FY10 • FY10 $85,000 Total Project Budget • Grants $78,700 • CIRA $78,700 • Contracts – NONE • Federal Travel -$3,000 • J. Knaff, Savannah, GA, Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference – $1,600 • J. Knaff, Camp Springs, MD, SPSRB presentation/IPB interaction – $1,400 • Federal Publication Charges - $3,300 • J. Knaff, “An Evaluation of Dvorak Technique-Based Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimates” - $3,300 • Federal Equipment -NONE • Transfers to other agencies – NONE • Other -NONE

12. 8. Expected Purchase Items FY11 • FY11 $85,000 Total Project Budget • Grants $78,700 • CIRA $78,700 • Contracts – NONE • Federal Travel -$3,000 • J. Knaff, TBD, Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference – $1,600 • J. Knaff, Miami, FL, Visit AOML/NHC – $1,400 • Federal Publication Charges - $3,300 • J. Knaff, Rapid Weakening - $3,300 • Federal Equipment -NONE • Transfers to other agencies – NONE • Other - NONE