FY10-11 GIMPAP Project Proposal Title Page

1. FY10-11 GIMPAP Project Proposal Title Page • Title: GOES Biomass Burning Research and Applications • Project Type: GOES product development, product improvement, and utilization • Status: New • Duration: 2 years • Leads: • Christopher C. Schmidt (CIMSS) • Other Participants: • Robert Rabin (NOAA/NSSL), Phillip Bothwell (NOAA/NWS/SPC) • Chris Siewert (SPC/CIMMS) • Jason Brunner, Joleen Feltz (UW-Madison CIMSS) • User Community includes: Shobha Kondragunta (NOAA/NESDIS/STAR), NRL-Monterey, FNMOC, EPA, USFS, hazards monitoring/assessments, global climate change modeling, trace gas/aerosol transport modelers, transportation, air quality agencies, land-use land cover change analyses

2. 2. Project Summary • Research at UW-CIMSS is pending arrival of 2010 GIMPAP resources which were delayed due to the CIMSS recompete • Utilize the new Version 6.5 WF_ABBA database by collaborating with Dr R. Rabin (NOAA/NSSL) and Dr. P. Bothwell (NOAA/NWS, Storm Prediction Center) to create a climatology of wildfires from the WF_ABBA Version 6.5 data and to examine whether the WF_ABBA data could be used in conjunction with other ancillary information to create a “fire potential” product. • Continue to work with GEOSS, GTOS GOFC/GOLD, CEOS, and CGMS to foster the development and implementation of a global geostationary fire monitoring network with international involvement. • Create WF_ABBA support for Korea’s COMS and MTSAT-2 as part of the geostationary fire monitoring network. • Support improved product utilization by supporting integration of the WF_ABBA into smoke and aerosol forecasting efforts

3. 3. Motivation/Justification • Supports NOAA Mission Goal(s): Climate, Weather and Water, Commerce and Transportation • CIMSS will continue development for the growing global geostationary constellation, which supports the SPSRB requirements that drove creation of the Met-8/9 and MTSAT-1R products. • Korea’s COMS is anticipated to be launched in Winter 2009-2010 and CIMSS proposes to create WF_ABBA support for COMS. • MTSAT-2 is scheduled to replace MTSAT-1R in 2010, and CIMSS will create support for it as well. • Both will be implemented at NESDIS with a future PSDI project. Support for those satellites follows SPSRB requirement 0405-7 “Global geostationary Fire Monitoring System” as well as the GEO 2006 Work Plan (DI-06-13, DI-06-09). • Additionally, support for the global constellation goes beyond specific support for NESDIS. CIMSS proposes to use GIMPAP funds to support improved product utilization by supporting integration of the WF_ABBA into smoke and aerosol forecasting efforts and collaborating with international entities. This is in support of U.S. and international efforts (IGOS GOFC/GOLD, CGMS, CEOS Constellation Concept). • The proposed fire potential product aims to improve predictions of fire potential for a 24-48 hour time frame. The climatology and, if proven successful, the fire potential product, will be of use to NSSL’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) forecasters and others. The creation of the climatology would leverage techniques developed for fire studies over South America under the NASA LBA program.

4. 4. Methodology • Global trend analysis activities will need to address and characterize the distinct monitoring capabilities of each geostationary platform. This will include incorporating fire/metadata mask information available with the next generation global WF_ABBA (version 6.5) and international cal/val studies. Existing techniques will be further developed to compare fire statistics from a variety of sensors (GOES Imager, MET SEVIRI, MTSAT JAMI, etc.).CIMSS will continue to incorporate requirements/suggestions made by IGOS GOFC/GOLD Fire Team. • The global WF_ABBA (version 6.5) includes the addition of FRP and a fire/metadata mask that provides information on processing regions, fire locations, fire confidence, cloud cover, block-out zones, saturated areas, etc. CIMSS will continue to collaborate with the atmospheric modeling community to integrate and assimilate this information from a variety of geostationary sensors into aerosol/trace gas transport models.

5. 4. Methodology, Continued The “fire potential” product will aim to provide some statistical predictive skill for fire occurrence above what is available today. Such ancillary information could include the following: Historical fire data detected from GOES WF_ABBA Version 6.5 from 1995 to present Fuel loads products to determine how much biomass is available to burn NDVI and/or surface wetness products to account for dryness of vegetation Cloud to Ground Lightning Database Antecedent data such as dewpoint depression (relative humidity) and wind direction and speed Recently occurring rainfall database, such as Stage-IV Data from NSSL. CIMSS will continue to support international satellite fire monitoring efforts by being actively involved in GEOSS, GTOS GOFC/GOLD, CEOS, and CGMS activities. This includes membership in the GOFC/GOLD Fire Implementation Team and involvement in international planning committees, workshops and technology transfer to global partners in Europe, Africa, Asia, Australia, etc. Currently global geostationary fire monitoring is being considered as a CEOS Constellation Concept. Furthermore the GEO 2006 Work Plan calls for the initiation of “a globally coordinated warning system for fire and monitoring for forest conversion, including the development of improved information products and risk assessment models (DI-06-13)” and expanding “the use of meteorological geostationary satellites for the management of non-weather related hazards (DI-06-09).” 5

6. 5. Expected Outcomes • Implementation of a global fire trend analysis protocol that takes into consideration the unique fire monitoring capabilities of each geostationary platform and allows for consistent spatial, diurnal, and interannual trend analyses around the globe. Results will be published in peer-reviewed journals. • Global geostationary fire products will be assimilated into air quality/aerosol transport models in real-time (e.g. NRL/FNMOC NAAPS, INPE CPTEC, etc.). • Provide to NSSL’s Storm Prediction Center forecasters and others a climatology of wildfires from WF_ABBA Version 6.5 data and, if successful, a “fire potential” product with WF_ABBA data in conjunction with other ancillary information. • Participation in international working groups and initiatives (GEO/GEOSS, IGOS GOFC GOLD, CGMS, CEOS) will ensure the successful development, implementation, validation and application of coordinated regional and global operational geostationary fire products. One of the primary goals is foster closer connections to international working groups and inter-agency efforts to gain better insight into the needs of the global user community, to enable better coordination of data sources and products, and to provide input for future missions.

7. 6. FY10-11 Milestones FY10 (milestone dates shifted due to funding delay) • Implement MTSAT-2 support of WF_ABBA version 6.5 in near real-time at CIMSS (when data is available) and begin evaluation • MTSAT-2 replaced MTSAT-1R on July 1 and support for it was needed at NESDIS Ops, so CIMSS proceeded with developing that support. Processing at CIMSS began once the satellite was activated in early July. Evaluation is underway. • Implement COMS support of WF_ABBA version 6.5 in near real-time at CIMSS (when data is available) and begin evaluation • Summer 2010 (Winter 2010): Generate 1995-2008 time-series and initial climatology of WF_ABBA fires • Summer 2010 (Winter 2010): Collect 2 years ancillary data for prototype fire potential product • Fall 2010 (Spring 2010): Evaluate prototype fire potential product, determine if it has value to users in collaboration with them • December 2010 (Summer 2010): Generate trend analysis of global WF_ABBA data • October 2009 – September 2010: Ongoing collaborations on assimilation of fires products into air quality and aerosol transport models • October 2009 – September 2010: Support international fire monitoring initiatives/workshops/requests (GEO/GEOSS, IGOS GOFC/GOLD, CEOS, CGMS) as opportunities/issues arise. 7

8. 6. FY10-11 Milestones FY11 (milestone dates shifted due to funding delay) • October 2010 – May 2011 (October 2010 – December 2010): Collect additional ancillary data for expanded fire potential product • April 2011 (January 2011): Update time-series and climatology of WF_ABBA fires • Winter-Spring 2011: Evaluate and refine expanded fire potential product • Summer 2011: Determination on whether fire potential product should see additional refinement and/or move toward operations • Fall 2011 (Summer 2011): Publish global WF_ABBA trend analysis and climatology • October 2010 – September 2011: Ongoing collaborations on assimilation of fires products into air quality and aerosol transport models • October 2010 – September 2011: Support international fire monitoring initiatives/workshops/requests (GEO/GEOSS, IGOS GOFC/GOLD, CEOS, CGMS) as opportunities/issues arise. 8

9. 7. Funding Profile (K)

10. 8. FY10 Expected Purchase Items $75,000 FY10 Total Project Budget (75K): Grant to CIMSS from Jan 10 to Dec 10 Personnel support (including benefits, IT charges, overhead, etc): 61K (0.40 FT, 0.12FT) Contracts: 7K CIMSS Subcontract to Elaine Prins Software charges: N/A Equipment: 2K for maintenance/replacement Travel (2 trips: Madison – AGU Conference; Madison – Intl. GTOS GOFC/GOLD meeting) - 5K 10

11. 8. FY11 Expected Purchase Items $75,000 FY11 Total Project Budget (75K): Grant to CIMSS from Jan 11 to Dec 11 Personnel support (including benefits, IT charges, overhead, etc): 55K (0.36 FT, 0.12FT) Contracts: 7K CIMSS Subcontract to Elaine Prins Software charges: N/A Equipment: 2K for maintenance/replacement Travel (2 trips: Madison – AMS Annual Conference; Madison – Intl. GTOS GOFC/GOLD meeting) - 5K Publication Charges – 6K 11