1 / 11

1. FY08 GIMPAP Project Proposal Title Page

1. FY08 GIMPAP Project Proposal Title Page. Title : Tropical Cyclone Forecast Product Improvement with GOES Project Type : Product Improvement Status : New Duration : 2 years Leads: John Knaff (StAR/RAMMB) Mark DeMaria (StAR/RAMMB) Other Participants : Andrea Schumacher (CIRA)

arin
Download Presentation

1. FY08 GIMPAP Project Proposal Title Page

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. 1. FY08 GIMPAP Project Proposal Title Page • Title: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Product Improvement with GOES • Project Type: Product Improvement • Status: New • Duration: 2 years • Leads: • John Knaff (StAR/RAMMB) • Mark DeMaria (StAR/RAMMB) • Other Participants: • Andrea Schumacher (CIRA) • John Kaplan (OAR/AOML) • Chris Sisko (NCEP/TPC) • Renate Brummer (CIRA) • Hiro Gosden (CIRA)

  2. 2. Project Summary • GOES data is utilized in several operational TC products • NCEP/TPC SHIPS statistical intensity model • NCEP/TPC Rapid Intensity Index (RII) • NESDIS annular hurricane index • NESDIS TC formation probability product • Project will focus on the improvement of these products • SHIPS • Extend the GOES database back to 1982 for predictor development • Reformulate model to eliminate “correction” step due to short GOES time series • RII • Examine inner core propagation of cold cloud top features as precursor to rapid intensification • Annular hurricane index • Evaluate real time runs (independent cases) • Test new discriminators • TC formation product • Examine time series of GOES WV imagery for upstream predictors • Extend product from 1 to 3 days with additional GFS and time series input

  3. 3. Motivation/Justification • Supports NOAA Mission Goal: Weather and Water • Improved intensity forecasting identified as high priority in NOAA and NCEP/TPC • Intensity forecast skill still lags that of track forecasting • Unanticipated rapid intensity changes are a major problem for coastal evacuations • TC genesis forecasting capabilities are very limited

  4. 4. Methodology • SHIPS model • Add 1982-1994 cases from CIMSS to developmental database • Modify SHIPS formulation to eliminate correction step • Check for new predictors and test on independent cases • Implement operationally at NCEP/TPC if successful • RII • Develop complex principal component technique to objectively track inner core propagating features from GOES • Test as precursor to rapid intensification • Coordinate with AOML and TPC to test utility in operational RII • Implement in operations if successful • Annular Hurricane Index • Evaluate real-time runs and test new discriminators • Modify real time code if successful (part of the SHIPS model) • TC Formation Product • Obtain databases of tropical-strip WV imagery and GFS forecast fields • Perform time series analysis and objective TC trackers for the GFS • Investigate longer lead probability forecasts

  5. 5. Summary of Previous Results • GIMPAP funding used to develop TC IR database • Partially supported initial implementation of GOES predictors in SHIPS and the RII • GOES predictor coefficients updated for 2007 • Supported the research and development for the TC formation probability product • TC IR database utilized in the annular hurricane index • Annular hurricane index implemented at TPC for 2007 • AHI Manuscript accepted for publication, July 2007

  6. Annular Hurricane Index Example: Daniel 2006 7/20/06 0Z, vmax=95 kt AHI = 0 7/22/06 0Z vmax = 130 kt AHI = 100 6 7/21/06 0Z, vmax=120 kt AHI = 50

  7. 6. Expected Outcomes • SHIPS • New version implemented at TPC with improved GOES input • RII • New version implemented at TPC with improved GOES input • Annular hurricane index • Real time product evaluated and skill determined • Real time product updated based on research results • Paper published on AHI • TC formation product • Longer-range product tested and evaluated for skill • PSDI-proposal submitted for transition to NESDIS operations • Paper published on formation product

  8. Tropical Water Vapor Strip TC Formation Product

  9. 7. Major Milestones • FY08 • Add 1982-1994 GOES imagery to SHIPS database • Begin reformulation of SHIPS model to eliminate correction step • Begin development of complex PC method for rapid intensification study • Verify annular hurricane index from 2007 cases • Begin investigation of new AHI predictors • Assemble GOES WV and GFS databases for TC formation product • Begin analysis of WV and GFS data for predictive content • FY09 • Implement new version of SHIPS at NCEP/TPC if appropriate • Test RII predictive information from complex PC analysis • Coordinate with AOML and TPC on modifications to operational RII • Coordinate with CIMSS on new SHIPS/RII predictors • Coordinate with AOML and TPC on RII modifications • Implement updated AHI in operational SHIPS, as appropriate • Test extended range TC formation product

  10. 8. Funding Profile (K) • Summary of leveraged funding • NESDIS base funding support for J. Knaff and M. DeMaria • CIRA infrastructure support • GOES-R3 hardware and computer support

  11. 9. Expected Purchase Items • FY08 • (90K): 11 months of Res. Sci./Res. Assoc. support (3 people) from 5/08 to 5/09 • (2K): Travel to scientific meeting • (2K): Publication charge • FY09 • (95K): 11 months of Res. Sci./Res. Assoc. support (3 people) from 5/09 to 5/10 • (2K): Travel to scientific meeting • (2K): Publication charge

More Related