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Red - ECMWF Green - Sintex Navy - POAMA-2.0

Drift. Standard Dev. NINO-3. Anomaly Correlation. Red - ECMWF Green - Sintex Navy - POAMA-2.0. Drift. NINO-4. Anomaly Correlation. Standard Dev. Red - ECMWF Green - Sintex Navy - POAMA-2.0. IOD. Anomaly Correlation. Standard Dev. Red - ECMWF Green - Sintex Navy - POAMA-2.0.

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Red - ECMWF Green - Sintex Navy - POAMA-2.0

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  1. Drift Standard Dev NINO-3 Anomaly Correlation Red - ECMWF Green - Sintex Navy - POAMA-2.0 The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  2. Drift NINO-4 Anomaly Correlation Standard Dev Red - ECMWF Green - Sintex Navy - POAMA-2.0 The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  3. IOD Anomaly Correlation Standard Dev Red - ECMWF Green - Sintex Navy - POAMA-2.0 The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  4. OBS relationship between AU rainfall and the first two dominant EOF modes of SST CC with PC1 DJF MAM JJA SON CC with PC2 The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  5. Can POAMA predict “flavour” of El Nino? SST EOF1 SST EOF2 Wang and Hendon (2007) showed that EOF2 important for Australian Rainfall The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  6. 1997 OBS 2002 POAMA at 3 months lead 1997 2002 1997 vs 2002 SST forecasts The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  7. 1997 SON POAMA lt 0 2002 SON POAMA lt 0 1997 SON Obs 2002 SON Obs • BUT • Skill disappears after first season The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  8. POAMA’s first two SST EOF modes (SON) OBS POAMA 61% (explained var.) 12% 54% 12% 0.93 (pattern corr.) LT 0 0.80 71% 8% 0.88 LT 3 0.59 66% 10% The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology 0.88 LT 6 0.61

  9. Corr between rainfall and PC1 in POAMA hindcasts at lead time 0 to 6 months (anticlockwise) JJA LT6 LT0 LT5 LT1 The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology LT2 LT3 LT4

  10. Corr between rainfall and PC1 in POAMA hindcasts at lead time 0 to 6 months (anticlockwise) SON The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  11. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  12. NCC operational vs Climo POAMA vs Climatology POAMA vs NCC SON Rainfall 1982-2006 from POAMA-1.5 Brier Skill Score percentage improvement Forecast for first season • BUT • Skill disappears after first season • Too emphatic ? The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  13. Skill improvement of POAMA prediction from the current operational prediction for exceeding medianrainfall(at lead time 0) DJF MAM (summer) (autumn) JJA SON (winter) (spring) The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  14. Skill improvement of Multi-Model Ensemble prediction compared to POAMA only for rainfall (at lead time 0) DJF MAM (summer) (autumn) JJA SON (winter) (spring) The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  15. Nino-4 Anomaly Correlation Red - Old system Navy - PEODAS Blue - ECMWF Navy - PEODAS Pink - No Assim The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  16. West Pacific (Nino-4) Why no significant improvement relative to No Assim (and behind ECWMF) in first few months? Standard deviation of NINO4 anomalies with lead time INITIALISATION SHOCK ? Imbalanced initialisation or Model error ? Probably model error The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  17. IOD Anomaly Correlation Red - Old system Navy - PEODAS Blue - ECMWF Navy - PEODAS Pink - No Assim The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  18. IOD: Why no significant improvement and behind ECWMF ? Due to Altimeter data ? Correlation of surface U with OSCAR(www.oscar.noaa.gov) PEODAS ECMWF The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  19. IOD: Why no significant improvement and behind ECWMF ? Or Due to Model error ? STD of IOD Bias in IOD East The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  20. Characteristics of simulated IOD in POAMA The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  21. Seasonal cycle Obs Lt1 Lt3 Lt6 Lt9 • The observed DMI peaks strongly in SON and is a minimum in Jan-Apr. The simulated DMI in the forecast model exhibits a realistic seasonal variation but its maximum in SON is too weak and it does not drop off as quickly in Dec-Jan as observed. • Inspection of the annual variation of the amplitude of the Niño3.4 index indicates realistic amplitude and seasonal variation (peak in Nov-Jan), suggesting that any errors in remote forcing from ENSO do not stem from an erroneous depiction of the phase locking to the seasonal cycle of El Niño development. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  22. Drift IOD-EAST Standard Deviation Red - ECMWF Green - Sintex Navy - POAMA-2.0 The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  23. Examples of poor central Pacific Forecasts Red - ECMWF Green - Sintex Navy - POAMA-2.0 Light Blue - POAMA-1.5 The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  24. Cold Bias - initialisation shock ? SST 20C Depth Zonal Wind The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  25. Missed ENSO’s Why? Model problem Predictability Initialisation The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  26. 1997 El Nino The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

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