Impact of the crisis on European workers

1. Impact of the crisis on European workers Assembling national trends and reports Guy Van Gyes UNI Europe Post&Logistics Conference, 26 September 2013, Evora (PT)

2. Mainsources • Eurofound reports: synthesis of national expert reports & available comparative statistics • Wages and working conditions in the crisis (2011) • Impact of the crisis on working conditions (2013) • Contact person Eurofound: oscar.vargas@eurofound.europa.eu • My reading/interpretation of these reports (not necessarily the view of the European agency) • CAWIE study (TURI-network; www.turi-network.eu): wage&CB trends in the Euro-zone

3. Overview • What has changed in the world of work? • Employmentconditions • Careerdevelopment and mobility • Working time and work-lifebalance • Workorganisation and psychosocialrisks • Health and well-being at work • Policyrole/reaction • Flexibilisation of labourregulation • Reforms of industrial relations system • Alternative agenda – Strategic levers

4. What has changed in the world of work?

5. Employmentconditions • Job insecuritybiteseverywhere • Strong increases in countries hard hit by crisis • EL: 31% convincedtheywillloosetheir job within the nextsixmonths (EQLS, 2012) • Job insecurity trend less dramatic in Nordiccountries; • flexicurityDK: % job insecureonlyincreasedfrom 9 to 11%; unemploymentwith 3.8% toalmost 8% • Trends in temporaryemploymentdiverge • High start rate = decrease (ES, PL) • Reformsfacilitatingtemporary contract: CZ, EE; LT, RO • Involuntary • Wagefreezing (not the firstcosttocut) • Bail out countries: cuts => EL: 6.4% drop in average

6. Careerdevelopment and mobility • Training: • Lesscareer, more functional • State training investment=> lesspolarisation; diminished ‘training gap’ • Less job mobility: Peoplestick or have to stick to their job • Migrationpatternschanged • Emigration in EasternEuropeagainon the rise • South + Ireland: againmigrating • Migrant more hit by crisis in receivingcountries • Male more thanfemale

7. Working time and work-lifebalance • Lesswork - lower average workinghours - more part-timework - decline in overtime • Effect of short-timeworkschemes (saved jobs) • Involuntarypart-time; unpaidovertime • No expansion of working at unsocialhours • Work-lifebalanceonlyunderpressure in countries hit hard by the crisis (ES, IE) • Gendergapschanging: male more hit by the crisis

8. Workorganisation and psychosocialrisks • Increase of stress-at-work • Insecurity factor • Workintensification ‘balanced’ by more job control in restructuringworkplaces • Conflict, bullying and violencerisingproblem (but crisis the cause?) • No crisis-relatedpolicies

9. Health and well-being at work • Drop in absenteeism – Drop in accidents-at-workrate • Job insecurity: effect ongeneralhealth (suiciderates) • Job satisfactionon the rise: ‘people more satisfiedwithwhatthey have’

10. Job insecurity and well-being

11. Conclusion Need to continue monitoring (new results coming from various countries not

12. Toconclude: trends • Lesswork – more insecurity and stress – lesschoice and opportunities • Positivefindingsonother indicators (job satisfaction, absenteeism, accidents, active jobs) • Realityorloweredexpectationsorcomposition effect (‘bad’ jobs cut)? • More ‘scars’ tocome • Career penalty of a difficult entry in the labourmarket • Effect of enduring job insecurityonwell-being • Whatkind of new jobs? Jobs cut in industry: whatwillbe the replacement jobs • Notall in ittogether • Particularcountries • Particulargroups(low-skilled, young, migrants)

13. Changes in regulations about working conditions and/or employment reforms Countries: Changes in GDP and uneployment Very strong economic change Strong economic change Better economic situation

15. Policyrole/reactions

16. Policyreactions 1 (2008-2009) • Short working-timemeasures as positivereaction to counter the employment shock in the first crisis period • Focus onemploymentmeasures (cf. training) • Social partners discussions: verypolarised and not in drivingposition • Employers: flexibilisation; too high labourcosts; Unions: fear of precariousness; wages/income as driver

17. Policy reaction 2: re-installment neo-liberal mantrasMainstream explanations and policy conclusions • Explanation: • Crisis is a crisis of competitiveness • Wages are the main variable for competitiveness • Labour market rigidities hamper adaptation and increase unemployment • Policy conclusion: • Structural reforms at the labour market and in the wage-setting systems 20 06 2013 Dr. Thorsten Schulten

18. Policyreactions2a: flexibilisationstrategies

19. 1. Analysis: Most significant changes in industrial relations practices: Reforms of collective bargaining 2009-2013: Dr. Thorsten Schulten

20. Beyond? Inclusivegrowth, flexicurity, sustainablework, … • No reports (yet) of ‘spectacular’ innovations • Derivingfrom the report • Continued and increasedattentiontopsychosocialriskskey • Segmentation between a core and peripheral workforce is enforced in recent years at many places. Flexibilisation means ‘more’ for the first and ‘less choice’ for the latter. • The different gender effect of the crisis – males are hit harder by the crisis - leads to new challenges, but maybe also to new solutions to improve gender equality. • Restructuring and downsizing is a fact of stress and insecurity, but it creates also opportunities to make transformations in job design and work organisation in order to strive for ‘active, smarter, sustainable work’ instead of ‘passive, strained, stressful work’.

21. Toconclude: policyperspective • Crisis policyreforms in East and South => flexibilisation effect => more towork? • Easing of dismissal procedures • Removingbarriersfortemporarycontracts • Liberalisering working time regulation • More strictrulessicknessleave • Where is the ‘security’ aspect? Where are ‘quality of workmeasures’ topromote ‘sustainablework’

22. Crisis context • Lesswork = lesschoice = more insecurity = lessreward • Definitebreakthrough – European level of socio-economicgovernance • Beggar-thy-neighbourpolicies • Germanwage dumping leadership • Dismantling (?) of Southern model of socialdialogue • Flexibilisationpolicies are on the riseagain (East & South), notflexicurity • Easing of dismissal procedures • Removingbarriersfortemporarycontracts • Liberalisationworking time regulation • More strictrulessicknessleave

23. 3. Wages and the Euro CrisisAlternative Agenda for European Wage Policy International Labour Organisation (ILO) • Collective bargaining as a core instrument for economic, industrial, employment and social policy • Strengthening of collective bargaining at all levels • strengthening of mechanism to extend sectoral agreements and to increase bargaining coverage • strengthening of minimum wages which should guarantee decent wage levels • promoting not wage competition but (real) wage developments inline with productivity Dr. Thorsten Schulten 20 06 2013

24. 3. Wages and the Euro Crisis Alternative explanations and policy conclusions • Explanation: • Wages are not the main reason for lack competitiveness or economic imbalances in Europe • Real wage developments lagging behind productivity growth dampen domestic demand and a produce deflationary spiral of downward wages competition • Current EU policy of austerity and structural reforms accelerate deflationary wage competition and promotes economic stagnation 20 06 2013 Dr. Thorsten Schulten

25. Collectively agreed wages and labour productivity in the Euro area 2000 = 100 20 06 2013 Dr. Thorsten Schulten

26. Transnational wage policy • Coordination exist already (only without the union and narrow-based; German wage leadership) • Taking wages out of competition = solidaristic wage policy • “uses a deliberate, centrally force to counteract … the centrifugal force of the market, i.e. its tendency towards wage differentiation • Demand-driven economic growth= income of the middle classes is driving the world economy  growing inequality

27. Crisis context • Lesswork = lesschoice = more insecurity • Definitebreakthrough – European level of socio-economicgovernance • Beggar-thy-neighbourpolicies • Germanwage dumping leadership • Dismantling (?) of Southern model of socialdialogue • Flexibilisationpolicies are on the riseagain (East & South), notflexicurity • Easing of dismissal procedures • Removingbarriersfortemporarycontracts • Liberalisering working time regulation • More strictrulessicknessleave