Changes to the Youth reoffending Measure

1. Changes to the Youth reoffending Measure Presentation for YOTs to stakeholders and management boards – 17th March 2011

2. YJB position statement The YJB supports the concept of the new measure and the advantages it presents for aligning the measurement in various parts of the Criminal Justice System and the streamlining of the work of YOTs. The YJB will continue to work with YOTs and the MoJ to handle the transition to the new measure and to address the needs of practitioners from the new measure. In order to support the transition to the new measure the YJB and MoJ have set up a small working group to work out some of the methodological and technical details of the new measure. This group will consist of YOTs and representatives from the YJB and MoJ. Data on the old measure will continue to be collected via the YJMIS web forms until a full dataset for the 2010 cohort is available.

3. Contents • The case for change • Details of the new measure • Implications for YOT • Timetable for publications

4. Part 1 The case for change

5. The case for change At present, there are 6 measures of reoffending, these include: • national adult reoffending, • local adult reoffending, • national youth reoffending, • local youth reoffending, • Prolific and other Priority offending (PPO) and • drug-misusing offending.

6. The case for change These 6 measures are currently presented in five different publications across a range of Government departments. These measures use different methodologies which makes it hard to understand reoffending behaviour and can lead to confusion over the headline trends in reoffending. The MoJ recently completed a consultation on a proposed new measure of reoffending which reduces the 6 measures into one. The response to the consultation was mostly positive and supportive of the proposed changes, for details please see: http://www.justice.gov.uk/consultations/statistics-cp171110.htm

7. The case for change Having one measure of reoffending will: • Help form a clearer picture of proven reoffending at national and local levels; • Allow comparisons between adult and youth data and enable other work on transition between the youth and adult system; • Help us understand how the different offender groups fit into the overall picture of reoffending;

8. The case for change The measure will also provide advantages to YOTs, namely: • The new measure will take the data from the Police National Computer (PNC) so YOTs will not be required to send reoffending data to the YJB or to perform checks on PNC. However, YOTs will still need capacity to monitor reoffending performance. • Provide a ‘blank canvas’ giving all YOTs a fresh start with the switch over to using PNC data. • Provide a level playing field, as it no longer depends on how well a YOT records its data or if it has good PNC links.

9. The case for change Other advantages to YOTs: • Provide more accurate data on young people who turn 18 while they are in the cohort. • The new measure uses a 12 month cohort rather than a 3 month cohort, which will be more representative. • The measure should help YOTS be able to scrutinise the PNC data at a local level.

10. Part 2 Details of the new measure

11. Overview of new measure • The new measure is similar to the one used for the youth population in National Indicator 19 so will seem familiar to YOTs. • A cohort of young people are tracked for a year. • The main difference between the new measure and the old is that the cohort will be a 12 months cohort and not a 3 month.

12. Overview of new measure • ‘Rolling cohorts’ will be used i.e. for any given quarter we will be looking at 12 months of data. An example of how the rolling cohort will work is available from the informationteam@yjb.gov.uk • Another difference between this measure and the old is that the data will come from the PNC and not from YOTs.

13. Overview of new measure • Also, the new measure is a binary measure of reoffending (i.e. a count of the number of young people who re-offend) rather than the current frequency measure. • Details of the frequency of offending will be provided (i.e. the average number of re-offences per 100 young people).

14. Who will be in the cohort? The new measure would include all young people who: • received a reprimand or final warning; • received a court conviction (other than immediate custody); • were released from custody, or • tested positive on a Class A drugs test on arrest; at any time in a twelve month period.

15. How long will they be followed up for? It is proposed that the new measure will count any re-offences committed in a 12 month follow up period, where those offences are proved by: • a court conviction; • reprimand/final warning either in that 12 month period or in a further six months.

16. Geographic breakdown It is proposed that the results would be broken down by: • The 9 English Regions and Wales • Police Force area (Local Criminal Justice Board) • Probation Trust level (for young people under probation supervision only) • Youth Offending Team area (for young people) • Local Authority level • Community Safety Partnership level This would be the first time reoffending rates are available for all Community Safety Partnerships.

17. Estimated impact of the proposed changes reoffending rates (binary) would generally be lower under the new measure than the old measures. This is because; • for adult offenders, the new measure includes more people who have a low likelihood of reoffending (i.e. those adults who were cautioned, fined and discharged are being included for the first time). • For the adult and youth measures, using a full year’s cohort removes the issue of the over-sampling of prolific offenders which occurs when a January to March cohort is used.

18. Why use a binary rate? • It is proposed that the published data will focus on the binary (yes/no) rate of reoffending. This is because; • It is easier to explain to the public • Ministers are interested in stopping people offending, not just reducing the rate of offending • There are concerns that whilst the frequency rate has fallen the binary rate has remained stable • The frequency data will still be available, both in the publication and to local areas.

19. Part 3 Implications for YOTs

20. Management information for YOTs reoffending rates on the new measure will be provided at the national level back to 2000. Local level breakdowns of this data will be provided back to 2005. The local data will be broken down by age, gender, ethnicity, sentence type, offence committed, number of previous offences, by the same geographic breakdowns as listed above. This data would be provided directly to YOTs. The YJB are working with MoJ and YOTs to look at putting this information straight into the YJMIS. Please note that it is proposed that the new methodology will be used for payment by results.

21. YOT concerns about the new measure • YOTs have reported the following concerns about the new measure: • The quality of PNC data • The difference between PNC and YOT data • Being measured on data that they do not own and do not have access to, especially if this is used for Payments by results • Confusion over some of the detail of the new measure (e.g. what is included and rolling cohorts). • The impact of the movement of Looked After Children and other young people who frequently move between Local Authority areas. • The time and effort that will be required to monitor their performance on this new measure.

22. Further work planned for summer 2011 The YJB, MoJ and a group of YOTs will be working together to address the concerns of YOTs. There are plans to further analyse the differences between the YOT and PNC data and to ensure that YOTs receive the data they need to enable them to monitor their performance. The analysis will include looking at: • 17 year olds who transfer to probation and who’s reoffending is on the PNC but not known to YOTs. • An estimate of how much variation is due to young people who frequently move between local authority areas. • Analysis of why the PNC shows more offenders and re-offences • Analysis of how much of the discrepancies between PNC and YOT are due to timing or false names and addresses • Information sharing

23. Part 4 Timetable for publications and other information

24. Timescales for publications • 17th March 2011 – Youth reoffending statistics (under the old measure) for the 2009 cohort. • 17th March 2011 – MoJ consultation response published. • 10th May 2011 – publication of the Compendium of reoffending Statistics and Analysis. This will compare the effectiveness of different sentences at reducing reoffending. • 26th May 2011 - The first of the new Criminal Justice System Statistics Quarterly which will give results for FTEs and sentencing statistics for the 12 months ending December 2010. • 27th October 2011 - the first of the new reoffending measure statistics quarterly publications which will contain: • reoffending for adults and juveniles for the cohort ending 31st December 2009 • back series for historic data • prison level reoffending rates for 2008 and 2009* • Local authority and probation level rates for adults and youth from 2005 to 2009

25. Further information • The official MoJ response to the consultation on the re-offending measure and improvements to Ministry of Justice statistics can be found at: http://www.justice.gov.uk/consultations/statistics-cp171110.htm • A list of Frequently Asked Questions has been prepared to accompany this presentation. This is available upon request from informationteam@yjb.gov.uk • An illustration of how a rolling cohort would work has been prepared and is available upon request from informationteam@yjb.gov.uk • For further information on the MoJ consultation please contact statistics.enquiries@justice.gsi.gov.uk