CONCEPTUAL NOTE on MedCOF

1. CONCEPTUAL NOTE on MedCOF Dr Yolanda Luna Head of R&D Department March 2013

2. Regional Climate Outlook Fora (RCOFs) started their implementation in Africa in the late 1990s; now they have spread considerably worldwide. In WMO RA VI the RCOF process was launched in 2008 2 RCOFs are fully operational in the European region: the South-East European Climate Outlook Forum (SEECOF) and the North EurAsian COF (NEACOF). The further development and implementation of additional RCOFs was discussed and recommended by the RA VI Task Team on Regional Climate Outlook Fora (TT RCOF) and by the RA VI Working Group on Climate and Hydrology (WG CH). Conceptual note on MedCOF

3. In January 2012 in Algiers during the Scoping Workshop on Seasonal Climate Prediction for North Africa (PRESANORD 02), most of the participants expressed the potential benefits and their agreement to a possible extension of the existing RA I PRESANORD Outlook Forum to the Mediterranean Region involving RA I and RA VI. This proposal of a MedCOF, inheriting much of the work done by PRESANORD, may help to give momentum to regionally coordinate seasonal forecasting activities. In January 2013 last PRESANORD meeting clearly showed the determination of the involved countries to cooperate for the promotion of coordinated seasonal forecasting activities in the region. Conceptual note on MedCOF

4. AEMET has developed over the last years different activities related to seasonal forecast involving both research and operational aspects. From the research side AEMET has explored, in the context of the recent EU projects DEMETER and ENSEMBLES, the role played by different downscaling techniques to further improve the predictability provided by global models. From the operational side, AEMET delivers on monthly basis estimations of seasonal perspectives using all available information generated from different operational systems. At AEMET we consider the establishment of a MedCOF a matter of major importance, and thus we would like to offer ourselves for the kick-off and coordination of this initiative. Conceptual note on MedCOF

5. Spanish WMO PR has sent a letter to both RA I and RA VI Presidents in order to make consultations with the NMHSs from their region potentially interested in MedCOF In a merely expository (and not exclusive) list RA I: Mauritania, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt, RA VI: Portugal, Spain, France, Italy and Malta Guidelines and examples of existing RCOFs in RA VI and elsewhere can be taken as model to develop MedCOF. Conceptual note on MedCOF

6. AEMET rationale for the proposed MedCOF relies on the following main ideas: Optimal exploitation of all available sources of seasonal forecast information. Integrating information generated by the NMHSs of RA I and RA VI, by WMO Regional Climate Centres of both regions, by the ad hoc created WMO Lead Centres for Long Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble (LC-LRFMME) and for Standard Verification System of Long Range Forecasts (LC-SVSLRF) and by other relevant institutions/projects. Special mention should be made to the coordination with the African Centre of Meteorological Application for Development (ACMAD) and the existing regional initiatives like MEditerranean climate DAta REscue (MEDARE) Work on the optimal combination of information from different seasonal forecasting systems would be an advantage Conceptual note on MedCOF

7. Need of coordinate and agreed response from all involved NMHSs to the increasing demand of seasonal information: Seasonal forecast information is highly demanded by many economical sectors affected by decisions on monthly/seasonal time frame. Many seasonal forecast providers have developed their own tools to meet this demand and deliver their own products, neglecting the importance of a coherent, consistent and agreed message under the authoritative voice of WMO. The release of non-coinciding seasonal forecasts –when not clearly contradictory- by different NMHSs belonging to the same climatologically homogeneous region is very damaging for the credit of the institutions issuing such forecasts and convey a negative message on the lack of usefulness of forecasts at such time scales. Delivery of a seasonal outlook, and its associated uncertainty, will be a strong asset of MedCOF and provide a clear message to users. Conceptual note on MedCOF

8. Enhance cooperation for a task requiring resources which in many cases is beyond the capabilities of a single NMHS. Seasonal forecast systems are frequently based on ensembles of individual forecasts requiring an enormous availability of computing power and modelling expertise. The infrastructure for sharing seasonal information coming from a multiplicity of sources has already been or is being created, such as the aforementioned WMO LCs or RCCs. Only the final step of delivering a common and consistent message is lacking, at least for the Mediterranean region. The cooperation in this field will also help develop capacity building and build trust among user communities. Conceptual note on MedCOF

9. Organize training activities to improve capabilities on seasonal forecasting. Some potential participants in MedCOF are still in an incipient status of development of seasonal forecasting activities both in operations and research domains. MedCOF should facilitate the periodic organization of courses, workshops and other activities aiming to strength existing capabilities in seasonal forecasting and other working areas of MedCOF. Conceptual note on MedCOF

10. AEMET estimation of the resources needed for kicking-off MedCOF is based on an initially modest staff involvement. Our minimum provision of personnel is based on 3 jobs directly linked with MedCOF, which AEMET could initially provide. A secretariat to organize meetings and workshops, convene online and in-person fora, require national contributions on time, disseminate final consensus messages, prepare and distribute documentation, liaise with contact points from NMHSs, liaise with LCs, RCCs, etc. Networking usually requires the preparation of a lot of written material which will be responsibility of the secretariat. Conceptual note on MedCOF

11. A scientist should work on the optimal combination of the seasonal available forecasts, serving as first guess and supporting material for forum sessions. Verification and predictability studies would be also be part of his/her responsibilities. A scientist/system analyst should work on the computational aspects of the material needed for the forum sessions and on the design and implementation of the MedCOF web page. This web page would host information from existing seasonal forecasting systems in agreed formats providing input for forum sessions and also host the final products delivered by the forum sessions. Conceptual note on MedCOF

12. The implementation of MedCOF: once the participant countries have agreed to join MedCOF, the first meeting –possibly coinciding with PRESANORD 4- would serve to discuss and agree some basic MedCOF functioning rules such as working areas of responsibility, frequency of fora, basic material to prepare by the coordinating centre, format of the output products, administrative and financial aspects, web page content, etc. The establishment of a Focal Point network aiming to conduct both physical and virtual COFs would facilitate the implementation of MedCOF. PRESANORD 3 forum has proven to be a magnificent opportunity to discuss and design the capabilities and responsibilities of MedCOF previously to the first official kickoff meeting which realistically could be held within the first half of 2013. Conceptual note on MedCOF

13. Celebration of a scoping meeting about the possibility of establishing a cross regional COF for the Mediterranean Basin Objectives of the meeting : to scope possible collaboration/cooperation across the Mediterranean basin for operational provision of climate information at seasonal scales. To be celebrated in the first half of 2013 in AEMET HQ – in Madrid Conceptual note on MedCOF

14. Topics to address Climate and predictability of the Mediterranean basin (what kind of sub-regional approach seems reasonable with respect of the climate variability). Identification of major stakes and critical periods around the Mediterranean basin (basic consideration prior to the establishment of a COF) Existing potential partners, projects and initiatives (to build on existing capacities, resources and material) : Regional level - National level ; For each : expectations, needs, capabilities, willingness to participate, … Identification of possible synergies and concerns (what is possible in term of cross regional approach, what is necessary to be treated at the regional/sub-regional level - identification on both subjects). Conceptual note on MedCOF

15. Objectives, impacts and benefits of a cross regional project (if any – see 4) or at least of a coordinated approach between the two RA (I and VI). Key outcomes of COF processes especially with respect of discussion at point 4) and 2); Potential impacts and benefits of the key outcomes at the regional, sub-regional and national levels; Training of NMHS experts (consistently with relevant elements raised at points 1 and 3); Way forward and Working organisation (actions, deliverables, milestones, …) Technical requirements (GPC inputs, tailoring, consensus methodology, etc.) to achieve the outcomes, Technical and logistic coordination (depending of previous discussions), Hosting of COF sessions (if any); Conceptual note on MedCOF

16. Funding : sustainability, possibility for cost-sharing (e.g. each country supporting its participant(s)); sources for recurrent expenditure, linking with GFCS projects, etc. Communication and user targeting, including participation of users and media in the COFs Beyond seasonal time scales ? Recap of main outcomes and recommendations of the meeting, table of actions and follow-up Conceptual note on MedCOF

17. Potentially interested contributors for the COF International organisations : WMO, … Regional level : RCCs (RCC RA VI, RCCs RA I including ACMAD), SEECOF, … National level : NMHS of the SEECOF area, NMHS of North Africa, NMHS of South-Western Europe, Others : climate experts (if needed), communication advisors, Task Team of RAVI on COFs Working Group of RA VI on Climate and Hydrology Conceptual note on MedCOF