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Climate Change

Climate Change. Science Why climate is changing Dave Lowe Why oceans are important Lionel Carter Learning from the past Peter Barrett. Society Why does it matter? Judy Lawrence Stuck in the middle with you John McCrystal Social context of climate change?

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Climate Change

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  1. Climate Change Science Why climate is changing Dave Lowe Why oceans are important Lionel Carter Learning from the past Peter Barrett Society Why does it matter? Judy Lawrence Stuck in the middle with you John McCrystal Social context of climate change? Dave Frame

  2. Why does it matter? • Widespread concern climate change could increase damages from extreme events (IPCC 2007, World Bank 2009) • Damages expected to triple with current trends in economic development and population growth (World Bank 2009) • Approx 140 million people and $1 trillion infrastructure affected by 1 metre seal level rise (Nicholls, R.J., and A. Cazenave, Science V238, 2010) • A 2°C temperature rise would cause serious disruption to almost all human systems, but most notably agricultural and political ones (Lloyds Insurance Climate Change and Security-risks and opportunities for business, 2010) • Reinsurance industry reports concern about trends in losses from weather-related catastrophes over the last 30 years has averaged $70 billion per year and is rising (Munich Re Topics Geo 6 Sep, 2010) Wildfire, drought Floods, storms, landslides Storms, hail, severe weather Earthquakes, volcanoes

  3. Impacts increase with warming Global temperature change (relative to pre-industrial) 0°C 1°C 2°C 3°C 4°C 5°C Food Falling crop yields in many areas, particularly developing regions Falling yields in many developed regions Possible rising yields in some high latitude regions Water Significant decreases in water availability in many areas, including Mediterranean and Southern Africa Small glaciers disappear – water supplies threatened in several areas Sea level rise threatens major cities Ecosystems Extensive Damage to Coral Reefs Rising number of species face extinction Extreme Weather Rising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding and heat waves Risk of Abrupt and Major Irreversible Changes Increasing risk of dangerous feedbacks and abrupt, large-scale shifts in the climate system Stern Review (2006)

  4. Health impacts McMichael & Bertollini, Climate Change Synthesis report, Copenhagen conference, 2009

  5. New Zealand climate change impacts (1) • Higher temperatures morein North Island than South Island but < global average • BUT because NZ has a smaller range in climate variables, we can be expected to be less tolerant to change • More frequent extreme weather events-droughts in east of NZ and floods • Change in rainfall patterns > in west and < in east

  6. New Zealand climate change impacts (2) • Rising sea levels bringing • Increased intensity of storms and storm surge levels rise • Slower accretion on west coast sand beaches e.g. Manawatu and more erosion on east coast gravel beaches e.g. Haumoana • Waves in Wellington 15% > by 2050 and 30% > by 2100 • High tide mark exceeded > in areas of smaller tidal range e.g. Wellington and east coast • Saltwater intrusion in low lying areas • Snow and glacier retreat with change to water flows South Island rivers 65% of the population and critical infrastructure on coast or on flood plains most without climate change considerations

  7. Climate change and increased risk of extremes How does a nation like NZ fit? An increase in mean temperature results in a significant increase in the occurrence of hot weather, including record hot weather, even though the increase in mean temperature is well within the typical range of temperatures experienced. Conversely, this shift results in a significant decrease in the occurrence of extreme cold weather (e.g., frosts) From: Reisinger, Mullan, Manning, Wratt, & Nottage, 2010. Global & local climate change scenarios to support adaptation in New Zealand. In R. A. C. Nottage, D. S. Wratt, J. F. Bornman & K. Jones (Eds.), Climate change adaptation in New Zealand: Future scenarios and some sectoral perspectives (pp. 26-43). Wellington: New Zealand Climate Change Centre.

  8. More of this?

  9. Deutsche bank on US climate investment “They're asleep at the wheel on climate change, asleep at the wheel on job growth, asleep at the wheel on this industrial revolution taking place in the energy industry. You just throw your hands up and say ... we're going to take our money elsewhere.” Kevin Parker, Deutsche Bank head of asset management. http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE67A3JK20100811

  10. Decision making choices Question: What are the implications of the following choices? • Ignore climate change because it is in the future and is uncertain 2 React to disasters with no or little learning from experienced risks- sound familiar.... • Respond through learning from experienced risks. 4 Develop new approaches ESCI 201 January 2011

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