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Understanding Threat Actor Capacities: Quantifying Historical Efforts for Budget Preparedness

Explore how to quantify threat actors' capacity based on historical records of hacker efforts. Learn to estimate APTs capabilities and potential harm for better budget preparedness. Let's move beyond heatmaps and leverage quantitative analysis. Discover the science behind loss estimation for improved cybersecurity strategies.

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Understanding Threat Actor Capacities: Quantifying Historical Efforts for Budget Preparedness

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  1. Logistical Budget Quantifying Threat Actors

  2. “Life can only be understood backwards; but it must be lived forwards.” -Søren Kierkegaard

  3. What if IoCs are a historical record of hacker effort? • Binaries take time to produce (and reproduce). • Domains have to be bought, maintained, shut down.. • Certificates have to be bought, keys generated… • IP addresses for exfiltration need to have listening sockets… Money, Time, Team size, and yes….TALENT, are encoded in their operational capacity. Infrastructure needs to be recycled, to avoid our signatures/IoCs/Observables.

  4. The simplest of metrics would be event count. We can do much, much, better than this if we take this seriously as a research idea. And we MUST!

  5. Where those the most prolific threats? Or the most tracked?

  6. @ErwinKooi “Your estimation of an APT’s capacity and skill is inversely proportional to how well you know them and their TTPs.”

  7. “All your heatmaps are belong to us.” -Richard Struse

  8. But what if we abandon heatmaps and get quantitative? MMMMMmmmm Binaries.

  9. “All risks are comparable, or at least they should be.” - Gordon Woo Why can’t we do this yet for: Parsing a packet Email Viewing a file Browsing a website Firmware upgrade

  10. Let’s estimate some crucial constants. Money Manpower Time IP Address Domain 1KB Binary 500Mb Binary SHA1 TLSH

  11. Now we’ve made APTs comparable, can we start to understand their capacity, so what about Ransomware?

  12. 928 -> $105,955

  13. 1074 -> $7.84 Million

  14. 837 -> $7.50 Million

  15. Ransomware has a “natural” scoring system, but what about APTs?

  16. Insurance has skills we’ve ignored. There is a science to loss estimation, which might significantly help our community.

  17. First we estimate APT “capacity for harm”, then we solve for “loss estimation” of minimal and maximal harms.

  18. “We had the tools, we had the talent.” - Winston Zeddmore

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