Logistical Verification Forecast Services in IHFS

1. Logistical VerificationForecast Services in IHFS Mary Mullusky RFC Verification Workshop, August 14-16 2007

2. Outline • Logistical Verification Measures • Forecast Services • Attributes of Forecast Services • Forecast Services GUI Demo • Future • Lab Exercise • Review Lab and Questions

3. Logistical Verification Measures • What are logistical verification measures? • Measures that evaluate the overall quality of a forecast service • Typically measure non-skill attributes • Answer questions like • What new types of forecasts have been developed? • Is the number of forecast points increasing or decreasing? • Have computational improvements reduced the effort to issue a forecast? • Have methodological improvements reduced the time it takes to prepare a basin for forecasting

4. Logistical Verification Measures • A comprehensive description of service efficiency include the following logistical verification measures: • Characterizing point forecasts by service type, frequency and location (Forecast Services) • Characterizing areal forecasts by service type, frequency and location • Identifying daily the number of issued forecasts by type and location • Quantifying the person effort required to set up a basin for forecasting, including data gathering, calibration, model setup and implementation efforts • Quantifying the person effort required to issue each type of forecast, including manual quality control of input data, forecaster run-time modifications and forecaster review and analysis • Quantifying the timeliness of issued forecasts • Goal is to standardize and automate the collection of these measures

5. Forecast Point Services • Forecast Services measure what hydrologic services the NWS provides; where these services are provided; and how often. • The types of forecast services include: • Data Point Service: all locations on a river/stream for which observed data is input to RFC or WFO hydrologic forecast procedures, or included in public hydrologic products. For the purposes of logistical verification, all locations along a river or stream for which hydrologic forecast and warning services are provided (i.e., forecast points) should be included as a data service. • Deterministic Forecast Service: all forecast points for which a single-value forecast is produced • Ensemble Forecast Service: all forecast points for which ensemble forecasting is used to generate forecasts and associated uncertainty information. • Water Supply Forecast Service: all forecast points for which water supply forecasts are provided

6. Forecast Point Services • These four Forecast Services tables (Data Point Service, Deterministic Forecast Service, Ensemble Forecast Service, Water Supply Forecast Service) are included in OB8.1 IHFS-DB • Data Service table is initially populated with records in the IngestFilter which have pe codes = H* OR Q*  AND ts codes = F* AND have their lid's appear in the RiverStat table • RFC personnel will be responsible for populating and maintaining all forecast services information for each lid in the RFC area of responsibility

7. Attributes of Forecast ServicesData Point Service (Data and Forecast Points)

8. Attributes of Forecast ServicesDeterministic Forecast Service

9. Attributes of Forecast ServicesDeterministic Forecast Service (cont’d)

10. Attributes of Forecast ServicesEnsemble Forecast Service

11. Attributes of Forecast ServicesEnsemble Forecast Service (cont’d)

12. Attributes of Forecast ServicesWater Supply Forecast Service

13. Forecast Services GUI Demo • Start GUI with /awips/hydroapps/whfs/bin/start_fcstservice • Demonstrate • Forecast Services Main Window (Service Table View) • Data Services (Initially Populated when you create tables) • Deterministic Forecast Services • Ensemble Forecast Services • Water Supply Forecast Services • Primary Keys • Foreign Keys • Drop Downs and Reference Table • Add/Modify/Delete

14. Future • Forecast Services Policy • Proposed Policy 10-924 requiring RFC to populate and maintain services field in the IHFS-DB for all data and forecast points • National River Location DataBase (NRLDB) • Forecast Services tables pulled from RFCs and combined with WFO E-19 and E-19a information • Other Logistical Measures • Implementation to be determined through the AHPS budget prioritization process

15. TRAC2 TADU1 UCRC2 VRBU1 Lab Exercise • TADU1 is a data point, the observed data is provided on the AHPS pages • TRAC2 is a forecast point where forecasts are only issued when the forecast exceeds the action stage, it is a headwater basin • UCRC2 is a mandatory daily forecast point, it is downstream of TADU1 and TRAC2 • VRBU1 is a daily mandatory forecast point, it is downstream of UCRC2. Additionally, water supply forecasts are made at this point with both an ESP computational method and the SWS-Principle Components (Regression) method. Recently, the RFC has been experimenting with short-term ensembles at this location. For the above forecast points, enter the forecast services information and relate service attributes into the IHFS-DB. (This will be done by bulk input). Then, using the Forecast Services GUI make services changes as directed.

16. Lab Exercise – Follow Up • Review and Questions • Survey; Needed GUI or database enhancements

17. Thank you