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Global Models & Organized Precipitation Systems: YOTC Overview

Explore multi-scale tropical convection and its interaction with the global circulation in the Year of Tropical Convection. Learn about parameterized and explicit convection, seamless prediction, and the challenges in representing atmospheric convection realistically. Discover the importance of organized precipitation systems and their impact on climate and weather models. Stay informed about advanced tools, global climate models, and observations.

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Global Models & Organized Precipitation Systems: YOTC Overview

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  1. Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC)Multi-scale Tropical Convection and its Interaction with the Global Circulation *****Organized Precipitation Systems ***** Mitch Moncrieff, NCAR & Duane Waliser, JPL/CalTech Co-Chairs, YOTC Science Planning Group Seamless Prediction *****Time-scales up to Seasonal *****

  2. Parameterized & explicit convection Realistic representation of atmospheric convection in global models universally recognized to be a strategic problem. Cloud-system resolving models (CRM) explicitly represent organized mesoscale precipitation systems. CRM resolution (~ 1 km mesh) operates in regional NWP. CRM applied in climate models as super-parameterization Global NWP and climate models will require convective parameterization for the foreseeable future, should represent organized precipitation systems. ~10 km mesh: a parameterization terra incognita, hybrid (explicit + parameterized) convection

  3. Climate model mesh ~100 km Cumulus scale ~ 1 km Scale gap Scale-gap assumption implies restrictive approximations Microphysics 100 km 1 km Horizontal scale Traditional cumulus parameterization assumes a scale gap

  4. Mesoscale organization of precipitating convection A continuum: no scale gap Microphysics 100 km 1 km Horizontal scale Organized precipitation systems invalidatesthescale-gap assumption

  5. LES-CRM (~100 m) Global CRM (~1 km) Global NWP (~10 km) Climate(~100 km) Satellite observations Microphysics Horizontal scale 1km 100m 10 km 100 km Advanced tools

  6. Simulated convective organization (100 m mesh; 200 km x 200 km computational domain) Courtesy: MaratKhairoutdinov (SUNY/Stoney Brook & CMMAP)

  7. MJO in NCAR Community Atmospheric Model (CAM) Super-parameterization (SP-CAM) Conventional parameterization (CAM) Khairoutkinov et al.(2004)

  8. Global CRM: Japan NICAM MTSAT-IR NICAM 3.5 km, 2-week Courtesy: Taroh Matsuno, FRGCC

  9. Improved MJO in ECMWF model … encouraging for climate models

  10. Aquaplanet Experiment Model Inter-Comparison (Climate Models) NICAM Courtesy: Mike Blackburn (U. Reading) & Dave Williamson (NCAR)

  11. Courtesy: J. Boyle, CAPT project,LLNL Seamless prediction &precipitation bias

  12. “Year” (data archiving period): May 2008-April 2010 for ECMWF data; indefinite for NASA/GMAO, NOAA/NCEP data sets • Targeted research • - MJO and convectively coupled equatorial waves • - Monsoons and intraseasonal variability • - Easterly waves and tropical cyclones • - Tropical-extratropical interaction • - Diurnal cycle • Outreach • - YOTC sessions at major conferences: 2008 Fall AGU; 2009 Spring AGU; 2009 AMS Annual Conference; 2009 Fall AGU • YOTC Project Office • - Based at NCAR, supported jointly by NSF, NOAA, NASA • YOTC Implementation Workshop (July 13-15 2009)

  13. YOTC Science Plan, Implementation Plan, etc: www.ucar.edu/yotc • Complete analyses, forecasts, special diagnostics • ECMWF T799 – 25km, on-line • NASA GMAO (see YOTC website) • NCEP - 40km, in progress • Observations & integrated data sets • Multi-sensor satellite data (inclined-orbit and geostationary) • Field-campaigns, emphasis on tropics • Long-term in-situ measurements in tropics(DOE/ARM) • Satellite-data analysis, dissemination and visualization: NASA Goddard Giovanni

  14. Kelvin Waves and tropical convection: June 19, 2008 Orbit analyzed

  15. Satellite Data Analysis & Dissemination NASA Giovanni A-Train Data Interface June 19, 2008

  16. YOTC Implementation: Collaborative research Weather: initial-value problem for climate (seamless prediction) - CCRP ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT, US DOE) - Transpose-AMIP (weather IVP for climate): 5-day hindcasts of YOTC events by Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE), contribution to CMIP5 - Hindcasts with NCAR Community Atmospheric Model utilizing super-parameterization (SP-CAM) for same events (CMMAP) MJO & Monsoon Interseasonal Oscillation (MJO-MISMO) - MJO hindcasts: UK Cascade (boreal winter ) and CLIVAR Asian-Australian Monsoon Panel (AAMP) - MISMO: Rapid northward propagation of ITCZ in 2009, effects on Indian monsoon rainfall (weak monsoon). - Heavy-rain episodes: Asian Monsoon Years (AMY); Meiyu front in China.

  17. Global CRM experiments for YOTC events: NASA GEOS-5 cubed-sphere model (C1440, C720); Japanese NICAM GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS): Pacific Cross-section Intercomparison (GPCI) for June-August 2008 of YOTC: transition of stratocumulus, trade-cumulus, ITCZ. Tropical-Extratropical interaction - THORPEX Predictability and Dynamical Processes, TPARC and TCS08. Easterly Waves and Tropical Cyclones - AMMA EOP cases during YOTC NCAR Tropical Channel Model (TCM) simulations: - 10-km mesh, 2-year integration, ECMWF T799 YOTC dataset for initial & meridional boundary conditions - Maritime Continent ‘prediction barrier’: orographic, diurnal cycle, coastal effects on MJO (nested TCM)

  18. Priorities & strategic developments Priorities - Bring above collaborative research (YOTC Implementation Plan) to fruition -- multi-year effort. - Expand involvement of tropical nations (e.g., Africa, China, India, Korea, S. America) who have great interest in YOTC. - Application of YOTC observational-computational research resource, i.e., high-resolution models (operational & research) + NASA Giovanni-YOTC satellite dissemination/analysis/visualization facility. Strategic developments - As a region of opportunity, Indian Ocean region is comparable to Pacific in late ‘80s-early ‘90s (TAO and drifter deployment, leading to TOGA COARE). How can YOTC advance Indian Ocean research? - YOTC‘s observational-computational research resource can address the weather-climate element of tropical convection/global interaction as a “virtual field-campaign”: i) formulate hypotheses for multiscale observational evaluation; ii) set field-campaigns into a large-scale context; iii) pathway to improved convective parameterization.

  19. YOTC planning publications Moncrieff, M.W., M. Shapiro, J. Slingo, and F. Molteni, 2007: Collaborative research at the intersection of weather and climate. WMO Bulletin, 56, 204-211. Moncrieff, M.W., D. E. Waliser, and others, 2009: The multiscale organization of tropical convection and its interaction with the global circulation: Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., in review. Waliser, D. E., and M.W. Moncrieff, 2007: Year of Tropical Convection: A joint WCRP-THORPEX Activity to Address the Challenge of Tropical Convection., GEWEX News, 17, 8-9. Waliser, D.E., M.W. Moncrieff, 2008: Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) Science Plan, WMO/TD-No. 1452, WCRP-130, WWRP/THORPEX, No 9, 26 pp. [on-line at www.ucar.edu/yotc]

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