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Seamless Prediction ***** Time-scales up to Seasonal *****

Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) Multi-scale Tropical Convection and its Interaction with the Global Circulation. ***** Organized Precipitation Systems *****. Mitch Moncrieff, NCAR & Duane Waliser , JPL/ CalTech Co-Chairs, YOTC Science Planning Group. Seamless Prediction

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Seamless Prediction ***** Time-scales up to Seasonal *****

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  1. Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC)Multi-scale Tropical Convection and its Interaction with the Global Circulation *****Organized Precipitation Systems ***** Mitch Moncrieff, NCAR & Duane Waliser, JPL/CalTech Co-Chairs, YOTC Science Planning Group Seamless Prediction *****Time-scales up to Seasonal *****

  2. Parameterized & explicit convection Realistic representation of atmospheric convection in global models universally recognized to be a strategic problem. Cloud-system resolving models (CRM) explicitly represent organized mesoscale precipitation systems. CRM resolution (~ 1 km mesh) operates in regional NWP. CRM applied in climate models as super-parameterization Global NWP and climate models will require convective parameterization for the foreseeable future, should represent organized precipitation systems. ~10 km mesh: a parameterization terra incognita, hybrid (explicit + parameterized) convection

  3. Climate model mesh ~100 km Cumulus scale ~ 1 km Scale gap Scale-gap assumption implies restrictive approximations Microphysics 100 km 1 km Horizontal scale Traditional cumulus parameterization assumes a scale gap

  4. Mesoscale organization of precipitating convection A continuum: no scale gap Microphysics 100 km 1 km Horizontal scale Organized precipitation systems invalidatesthescale-gap assumption

  5. LES-CRM (~100 m) Global CRM (~1 km) Global NWP (~10 km) Climate(~100 km) Satellite observations Microphysics Horizontal scale 1km 100m 10 km 100 km Advanced tools

  6. Simulated convective organization (100 m mesh; 200 km x 200 km computational domain) Courtesy: MaratKhairoutdinov (SUNY/Stoney Brook & CMMAP)

  7. MJO in NCAR Community Atmospheric Model (CAM) Super-parameterization (SP-CAM) Conventional parameterization (CAM) Khairoutkinov et al.(2004)

  8. Global CRM: Japan NICAM MTSAT-IR NICAM 3.5 km, 2-week Courtesy: Taroh Matsuno, FRGCC

  9. Improved MJO in ECMWF model … encouraging for climate models

  10. Aquaplanet Experiment Model Inter-Comparison (Climate Models) NICAM Courtesy: Mike Blackburn (U. Reading) & Dave Williamson (NCAR)

  11. Courtesy: J. Boyle, CAPT project,LLNL Seamless prediction &precipitation bias

  12. “Year” (data archiving period): May 2008-April 2010 for ECMWF data; indefinite for NASA/GMAO, NOAA/NCEP data sets • Targeted research • - MJO and convectively coupled equatorial waves • - Monsoons and intraseasonal variability • - Easterly waves and tropical cyclones • - Tropical-extratropical interaction • - Diurnal cycle • Outreach • - YOTC sessions at major conferences: 2008 Fall AGU; 2009 Spring AGU; 2009 AMS Annual Conference; 2009 Fall AGU • YOTC Project Office • - Based at NCAR, supported jointly by NSF, NOAA, NASA • YOTC Implementation Workshop (July 13-15 2009)

  13. YOTC Science Plan, Implementation Plan, etc: www.ucar.edu/yotc • Complete analyses, forecasts, special diagnostics • ECMWF T799 – 25km, on-line • NASA GMAO (see YOTC website) • NCEP - 40km, in progress • Observations & integrated data sets • Multi-sensor satellite data (inclined-orbit and geostationary) • Field-campaigns, emphasis on tropics • Long-term in-situ measurements in tropics(DOE/ARM) • Satellite-data analysis, dissemination and visualization: NASA Goddard Giovanni

  14. Kelvin Waves and tropical convection: June 19, 2008 Orbit analyzed

  15. Satellite Data Analysis & Dissemination NASA Giovanni A-Train Data Interface June 19, 2008

  16. YOTC Implementation: Collaborative research Weather: initial-value problem for climate (seamless prediction) - CCRP ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT, US DOE) - Transpose-AMIP (weather IVP for climate): 5-day hindcasts of YOTC events by Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE), contribution to CMIP5 - Hindcasts with NCAR Community Atmospheric Model utilizing super-parameterization (SP-CAM) for same events (CMMAP) MJO & Monsoon Interseasonal Oscillation (MJO-MISMO) - MJO hindcasts: UK Cascade (boreal winter ) and CLIVAR Asian-Australian Monsoon Panel (AAMP) - MISMO: Rapid northward propagation of ITCZ in 2009, effects on Indian monsoon rainfall (weak monsoon). - Heavy-rain episodes: Asian Monsoon Years (AMY); Meiyu front in China.

  17. Global CRM experiments for YOTC events: NASA GEOS-5 cubed-sphere model (C1440, C720); Japanese NICAM GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS): Pacific Cross-section Intercomparison (GPCI) for June-August 2008 of YOTC: transition of stratocumulus, trade-cumulus, ITCZ. Tropical-Extratropical interaction - THORPEX Predictability and Dynamical Processes, TPARC and TCS08. Easterly Waves and Tropical Cyclones - AMMA EOP cases during YOTC NCAR Tropical Channel Model (TCM) simulations: - 10-km mesh, 2-year integration, ECMWF T799 YOTC dataset for initial & meridional boundary conditions - Maritime Continent ‘prediction barrier’: orographic, diurnal cycle, coastal effects on MJO (nested TCM)

  18. Priorities & strategic developments Priorities - Bring above collaborative research (YOTC Implementation Plan) to fruition -- multi-year effort. - Expand involvement of tropical nations (e.g., Africa, China, India, Korea, S. America) who have great interest in YOTC. - Application of YOTC observational-computational research resource, i.e., high-resolution models (operational & research) + NASA Giovanni-YOTC satellite dissemination/analysis/visualization facility. Strategic developments - As a region of opportunity, Indian Ocean region is comparable to Pacific in late ‘80s-early ‘90s (TAO and drifter deployment, leading to TOGA COARE). How can YOTC advance Indian Ocean research? - YOTC‘s observational-computational research resource can address the weather-climate element of tropical convection/global interaction as a “virtual field-campaign”: i) formulate hypotheses for multiscale observational evaluation; ii) set field-campaigns into a large-scale context; iii) pathway to improved convective parameterization.

  19. YOTC planning publications Moncrieff, M.W., M. Shapiro, J. Slingo, and F. Molteni, 2007: Collaborative research at the intersection of weather and climate. WMO Bulletin, 56, 204-211. Moncrieff, M.W., D. E. Waliser, and others, 2009: The multiscale organization of tropical convection and its interaction with the global circulation: Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., in review. Waliser, D. E., and M.W. Moncrieff, 2007: Year of Tropical Convection: A joint WCRP-THORPEX Activity to Address the Challenge of Tropical Convection., GEWEX News, 17, 8-9. Waliser, D.E., M.W. Moncrieff, 2008: Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) Science Plan, WMO/TD-No. 1452, WCRP-130, WWRP/THORPEX, No 9, 26 pp. [on-line at www.ucar.edu/yotc]

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