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NMME Tech Meeting

NMME Tech Meeting. 8 April 2011 NCEP, Room 209. Design of NMME for FY12+. Composition of each prediction system in the NMME? CFSv2: 8468 (9-mon) + 4380 (3-mon) + 13140 (45-day)  10K years!! Hindcast length (EUROSIP: 1981-2005) relevance of evolving obs. sys.

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NMME Tech Meeting

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  1. NMME Tech Meeting 8 April 2011 NCEP, Room 209

  2. Design of NMME for FY12+ • Composition of each prediction system in the NMME? • CFSv2: 8468 (9-mon) + 4380 (3-mon) + 13140 (45-day)  10K years!! • Hindcast length (EUROSIP: 1981-2005) • relevance of evolving obs. sys. • Data assimilation: Does the best IC come from the best DA? • Initial conditions • Ensemble size • Should we follow the EUROSIP template? • Provides consistency between NMME and IMME

  3. T159L62 / 1° :: 41 fcst / 11 hcst members (GLOSEA - HadGEM3 / NEMO) 5 120 km (38L) / 1° :: 42 / 12 3 300 km (91L) / 1° :: 41 / 11 Tim Stockdale

  4. Tim Stockdale

  5. Design of NMME for FY12+ • What are the requirements for documentation of models and data assimilation systems? • What are the metrics for success that we should use to monitor progress? • How can we engage stakeholders (CPC, regional operations, others) on requirements? • NMME hindcasts • NMME forecast products • How can we engage research community? • What’s in it for model development shops? • What support is needed for research on predictability and prediction? • Where does skill come from? • Where does uncertainty come from? • What is process for evolution (model versions, MME strategy, etc.)? • Governance model??? • Regular meetings (Robert’s Rules??)

  6. Tim Stockdale

  7. Tim Stockdale

  8. Tim Stockdale

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