Economic Goals for Vermont’s Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy

1. Economic Goals for Vermont’s Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy Ken Jones, Economic Research Analyst Vermont Agency of C0mmerce and Community Development January 27, 2014

2. CEDS – A Strategy for Vermont Labor Productivity (GDP and GPI) Consumption Capital

3. Broad Goal – Increase GDP Millions of Chained 2006 dollars – real growth

4. ~ 6% decrease in 15 years ~ 4% increase in 15 years

5. The Vermont Economy

6. Incorporating Genuine Progress Indicator

7. Factors that influence GPI • Starts with consumer purchases, like GDP • Non renewable energy depletion (-$3.6 billion) • Value of housework (+$3.5 billion) • Income inequality (-$3.2 billion) • Value of higher education (+$2.3 billion) • Loss of farmland (-$1.4 billion) • Climate change and ozone depletion (-$1.8 bill.) • Commuting cost and car crashes (-$.65 billion) • Cost of underemployment (-$.5 billion)

8. Draft Goal Statement • Increase ratio of Vermont GPI to US GPI by 1% in the next five years (about $300 million annual) • To translate – increase GDP and… • Reduce factors that reduce GPI (income inequality, climate change emissions) • Increase factors that increase GPI (beyond GDP – increase level of higher income, volunteer labor)

9. CEDS – A Strategy for Vermont Workforce Development and Education Business Environment Labor + Capital Magic Production (GPI) Public Infrastructure Capital Finance Innovation Working Lands and Tourism

10. Labor • Number of employed and self –employed • Wages and salaries of employed and self employed • GDP output per employee (labor efficiency)

11. The Vermont Economy

12. The Vermont Economy - Income

13. (45-64 data divided by 2)

14. Draft Goal Statement - Labor • Increase worker output 1% in the next five years above national increases • (Via workforce development and education)

15. Capital • Direct Foreign Investment (EB-5) • Venture Capital • Vermont in traditional equity markets • New capital sources

16. Draft Goal Statement – Private Capital • Increase capital investment by $1 billion in next five years

17. Draft Goal Statement – Public Infrastructure • Increase number of communities with adequate water and wastewater for growth by z • Transportation • Broadband • Energy (incorporate the 90% by 2050 goals of the Comprehensive Energy Plan)

18. CEDS – A Strategy for Vermont Workforce Development and Education Business Environment Labor + Capital Productivity Public Infrastructure Capital Finance Working Lands and Tourism Innovation

19. Draft Goal Statement – Business Environment • Increase business survival rate x% in the next five years • Increase business growth y% in the next five years

21. Draft Goal Statement – Other bucket groups • Innovation • Working Lands and Tourism

22. Timeline Today – Add flesh to the initiatives • Who can take responsibility for specific actions? • What data and analysis will support the initiative? February - March – • Draft action plan matrix including intiatives • Finalize data documents • Draft CEDS document for review • Targeted review workshops April – • Get administration approval, add final details • Public review period May – Preparation and delivery of final CEDS document June 1 – Report completed Fall, 2014 – Economic Development Summit • Review baseline information • Report progress in workplan implementation

23. CEDS Report outline Characterize Vermont economy Production, Labor, Capital For each Bucket Area Goals Initiatives (as work plans) Topics (not incorporated in bucket areas) Poverty Resilience Community Development and Housing Sectors of particular interest

25. In your work groups: Read through the initiatives. Make private notes. Indicate to the facilitator/recorder which initiatives you would like to contribute to. Prioritize – start work on those with the most contributors/or which people regard as the most important. Focus on completing fewer initiatives rather adding minor improvements to them all.

26. Time to get to work.