Cuba, the Castros, and the Future

Cuba, the Castros, and the Future Political Science 456- Comparative Politics: Latin America Spring 2011 James Evert Hilary Novick James Battle DahianaTejada

Fidel Castro • Fidel Alejandro Castro Ruz • Ángel Castro y Argiz & Lina Ruz González • 2 brothers (Raúl and Ramón) and 4 sisters (Antelita, Juanita, Emma, and Augustina) • Educated in private Jesuit boarding schools and after graduating in late 1945, enrolled in the University of Havana

Fidel Rises to Power • In 1953, Castro and approximately 150 supporters attacked the Moncada military barracks attempting to overthrow Batista. • Captured and imprisoned • released in 1955 after being granted amnesty by the Batista regime • Goes to Mexico where he meets Ernesto “Che” Guevara • In 1956, Castro and a group of insurgents attack again

Fidel Dominates • Nationalized factories and plantations • May 1959 Signs First Agrarian Reform Law • By the end of 1959 Castro had dismissed military leaders and suppressed any media that opposed him • Established relations with the Soviet Union

Fidel Dominates • In April of 1961 Castro officially declares Cuba a socialist state • In May of 1961 Castro announced the end of democratic elections in Cuba • By the end of the year he announced Cuba was adopting communist economic and political policies • 1965 merges political parties

Capitalism is using its money; we socialists throw it away. -Fidel Castro Foreign Policy • Supported armed revolt in Asia, Africa and Latin America • Against imperialism They talk about the failure of socialism but where is the success of capitalism in Africa, Asia and Latin America? -Fidel Castro

Success and Failure • Opened 10,000 new schools • Increased literacy rate to 98% • Universal health care for Cubans • Labor unions lost right to strike • Independent newspapers shut down • Religious institutions harassed

Fidel’s Health (1998) • El Nuevo Herald (a Miami-based Spanish-language paper) claims Fidel has some sort of Brain Illness • This is immediately denied by Castro, in a rare interview with international reporters • "I myself am surprised at how well I feel for the famous 72 years I am about to mark"

Fidel’s Health (2001) • Castro collapses while giving a speech in Cotorro on the outskirts of the Capital • Havana Foreign Minister Felipe Perez Roque told the crowd that it was just a momentary fall caused by the strong heat.

Fidel’s Health (2004) • After Finishing a speech in Santa Clara, Castro trips and falls on his way off the stage • Breaking his Arm, and shattering his knee cap

Fidel’s Health (2005) • CIA speculates that Fidel has Parkinson's • Fidel denies this, saying “When I do die one day, nobody will believe me”

Fidel’s Illness and Transfer of Power (2006) • On July 31, 2006, Castro delegated his duties as President of the Council of state, President of the Council of Ministers, First Secretary of the Cuban Communist Party, and the post of Commander in Chief of the armed forces to his brother Raúl Castro • Officially, this was done because Fidel needed time to recover from surgery for an “acute intestinal crisis with sustained bleeding”

Raúl Castro • Acting President from 31 July 2006 – 24 February 2008 • Officially assumed office 24 Feb, 2008 • It is commonly thought that he wishes to emulate the Chinese national model, with a more economic focus for Cuba’s future • Raúl himself has never confirmed this ambition

Raúl Castro’s Cuba • Within the first two months of his presidency Raúl… • Lifted the ban on Cell Phones • Instituted a program in the countryside that sells unused land to farmers, who can work the land for profit

Raúl Castro’s Cuba • Raúl also… • Lifted the ban on high energy consuming products such as rice cookers, DVD players, and Computers • Aloud Cubans to stay in Tourist hotels • And is working on a program that would allow Cubans to go abroad without first seeking permission

Raúl Castro’s Cuba (2009) • In a surprise move in March of 2009, Raúl made several changes in his cabinet • Felipe Perez Roque, the 43-year-old foreign minister, replaced with Bruno Rodriguez Aprilla • Also, Carlos Lage Davila, an economist, lost his job as Cabinet secretary, replaced by Brig. Gen. Jose Amado Ricardo Guerra

Fidel’s Reappearance • August 2010, Fidel makes his first institutional appearance in four years, speaking to a special session of the National Assembly • This comes after a series of appearances beginning in mid-July • His comments have been limited to foreign policy issues, with no mention of the reforms his brother

Raúl Castro’s Cuba (2010) September 13, 2010, Cuba announces it will likely shed 500,000 government jobs over the next 6 months, while simultaneously allowing for growth in private industry Raúl had previously stated the state would be cutting at least one million government jobs, but over the next five years

Sixth Congress (2011) • Called for by Raúl in November, the sixth congress will take place in April • Raúl (on the purpose of this Congress) – “(to)concentrate on solving problems in the economy and updating the Cuban economic model."

Who will take over after Raúl? • There is no obvious successor, but a few possibilities • Big Peace states there are four alternatives • No major change • Major positive change from an authoritarian regime to a democracy • Gradual positive changes • Rapid violent Gotterdammerung [referring to a cataclysmic downfall of the regime] political collapse

Raúl is doing everything he can to improve the current government and ensure a legacy of communism after he is no longer in power. • This included dismissing numerous top government officials and Fidel loyalists and also reducing the power of the vice president.

Current Possibilities • Huffington Post (2009) states that, “a disciplined group of senior army officers will likely rule Cuba in collective fashion. They will have command over the economy and political life, and the security services will clamp down very heavily. At some point, a new personality will emerge to critique Fidel and Raul's "errors."”

So “at some point,” who will that be? • The Sons of Fidel and Raúl • Primed to take power by already serving next to Raúl Castro • They have the ability to make changes to the Cuban Community Party because they have fewer enemies • “None of them has their hands soaked in blood. Therefore, they could start trying to make changes.” – Cuban dissident Guillermo Fariñas.

Alejandro Castro Espin • Son of Raúl Castro (current president) and Vilma Espin (Cuban revolutionary) • Colonel – Interior Ministry of Cuba • Personal assistant to president Raúl

Dr. Antonio Castro Soto del Valle • Son of Fidel Castro • Not as likely… he has been greatly scrutinized for enjoying luxuries and freedoms which are denied to the Cuban people • Luis Dominguez – a Cuban activist in Miami posed as “Claudia Valencia” and engaged in an online relationship with Antonio, where he saw glimpses into the personal life of a Cuban leader.

Other Possibilities • Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla • Present Foreign Minister of Cuba after being appointed by Raúl Castro in 2009 – Preceding Felipe Pérez Roque • Former Permanent Representative to the UN (1995-2003) • Ricardo Alarcón • President of National Assembly of People’s Power in Cuba • Supporter of current Cuban policies

Possibility of Democratic Elections • After over 50 years of being in power, Fidel Castro has forever altered the Cuban political, economic and social landscape. • In order to access the possibility of democratic elections on the island, it is important to understand the current economic situation and the possibility of a market economy, the US approach to situation in Cuba, the role of Dissidents and understanding what Cubans want.

Reflection Questions • Given that Fidel and Raul are coming to the end of their lives, what do you feel their legacy will be in both Cuba and Latin America? • If the Castro regime falls how do you think that will impact their close Latin American allies such as Venezuela and Bolivia? • Given the current situation in Cuba, what will democracy in Cuba look like if it is to exist?

Thank You!

Sources • http://www.huffingtonpost.com/daniel-bruno-sanz/after-raul-castro_b_215138.html • http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/04/08/1568500/after-fidel-and-raul-alejandro.html • http://bigpeace.com/jkalosha/2010/10/15/the-future-of-post-castro-cuba-introduction/ • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alejandro_Castro_Esp%C3%ADn • http://www.biography.com/articles/Fidel-Castro-9241487 • http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/138452.stm • http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/1404511.stm • http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/3761748.stm • http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/4444454.stm • http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/33746.php • http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7252109.stm • http://edition.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/americas/04/26/raul.castro/ • http://edition.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/americas/03/02/cuba.reorganization/index.html#cnnSTCText • http://edition.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/americas/09/13/cuba.economy/index.html • http://edition.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/americas/08/07/cuba.fidel.castro/index.html • http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-11894593

Cuba, the Castros, and the Future