DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES AND THEIR CONSEQUENCES

1. DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGESAND THEIR CONSEQUENCES Peter Pogačar, Director – General MoLFSA Brdo, October 6, 2011

2. Demographic changes Consequences / challenges Pension system Labour market Occupational safety and health Health care Long term care

3. Population projections for Slovenia,EUROPOP2008 for 1. 1. 2030 Source: Eurostat, 2008; EF.

4. Future demographic changes – ageing of population Source: Eurostat, 2008; IER

5. Population rate of elderly 65+ years (in %) by different demographic scenarios Source: EUROSTAT 2008.

6. Population rate of persons aged 20-64 years(in %) by different demographic scenarios Source: EUROSTAT 2008.

7. Population rate of persons aged 0-19 years (in %) by different demographic scenarios Source: EUROSTAT 2008.

8. Population projections ERUOPOP2008 – rate of basic age groups (contingencies) of population as a share of the wholeSlovenian population in the period 2008-2060 16,1% 33,4% 64,3% 49,1% 19,6% 17,5% 8 Source: Eurostat, EF.

9. Ratio: numbers of pensioners vs. number of employees

10. Age profiles of consumption and income from work, Slovenia, 2004 AGE 25 YEARS AGE 56 YEARS SUFFICIT DEFICIT DEFICIT Source: Statistični urad Republike Slovenije, APG-2004; other sources

11. Lifecycle deficit, Slovenia, 2004 31 YEARS Source:Statistični urad Republike Slovenije, APG-2004; other sources.

12. Age profile of income from work, international comparison Source: Independence and Return in the Family of European Market Economies, november Sambt & Malačič, NTA Accounts for Slovenia: 2007, str. 6.

13. Pension expenditures • risk of sustainability and adequacy of the system • risk on intergenerational solidarity Measures: • Raise of the effective retirement age • Raise of the employment rate of the age group 55 to 64to 68% by 2040 Future challenges

14. Labour market • Lack of workforce • Low employment rates of older • Dualism of labour market • Conflict of generations (X, Y) in the labour market • Working conditions Future challenges

15. Labour market Employability of the older workers: • Definition of older worker • Rights – linked to the age of worker • Compliance with the pension system Future challenges

16. Safety and health at work • Increasing importance • Measures – targetinggroups of employees (different age) employers (size) IMPORTANT - all groups should be included Future challenges

17. Safety and health at work If we want to make efficient measures, we need to improve: • Knowledge base • Analytical approach (quality analyses) • Occupational safety and health statistics Future challenges

18. Safety and health at work • Increasing number of: • non-typical work arrangements • small and medium sized enterprises • Lack of data on self-employed and “self-employed” • Increasing share of illegal work, performed by vulnerable groups (women, migrants, unemployed) Future challenges

19. New solutions are needed in the field of: • Work organisation • Safety and health at work • Employment relationships Conclusions

20. Ageing of population is not a problem – it is a CHALLENGE WE HAVE A RESPONSIBILITY TO DEAL WITH THIS CHALLENGE TOGETHER Conclusions