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15th LOSS Conference Demographic Changes. Herder’s Prophecy - Reality or Nightmare? Demography and welfare policy in Carpathian Basin. Dr. Gergely Fábián (University of Debrecen, Faculty of Health) Dr. Ferenc Bódi ( Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Institute for Political Science)
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15th LOSS Conference Demographic Changes Herder’s Prophecy - Reality or Nightmare?Demography and welfare policy in Carpathian Basin Dr. Gergely Fábián (University of Debrecen,Faculty of Health) Dr. Ferenc Bódi (Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Institute for Political Science) Giczey Péter(ÉLETFA Help Service Association) Mátyás Bódi (Eötvös Loránd University Budapest – Faculty of Regional Studies)
Herder’s prophecy, reality or nightmare? „Around the graves where we shall die a weeping world will come, and millions will in pity gaze upon the martyrs' tomb.” Appeals (Szózat) 1836 Written by Mihály Vörösmarty Translated by Watson Kirkconnell,
The recent demographic situation Life expectancy at birth: one of the lowest measured in Europe; males:69, females: 76 (www.who.com) Decreasing population since the early 1980’s TFR: 1,3 (203th rank from 223 country) This situation is the result of a unique process: • influenced by the conscious pop. policy of the governments in power during the XXth century, • The XXth century (wars, revolutions, etc.)
Regular child support rate in under 18 years old age population (2005)
Social „Jelly” (invalidity pensioner + unemployed/tax payer x 100)
The position and closing down of primary schools and kindergartens in our time in Hungary • Methodology and background: Local Organization of Social Services (LOSS) model Demand and Supply • The demand side: Demographic situation in Hungary 1988-2005 • The supply side Changes in the number of kindergartens • Changes in the number of primary schools • Conclusion
The demand sideDemographic situationAging indicesin 1988 and 2005
Vicious Circle TAX LOSS; Education (Strong – Weak?) Economic Force Human Source
Conclusion • It is not easy to assess the educational system in Hungary, since, owing to its special structural features, it is difficult to compare it to OECD or other EU Member States. Our education system is embedded in the texture of society and the lives of local communities in a different way and to a larger extent. Kindergartens and schools play a multifunctional role in the life of a society - they create and keep together a community, and quite often (especially in poorer or rural regions) they also perform the task of a social mission. • According to National Institute for Public Education (OKI) surveys, 31.5 per cent of Hungarian schools have less than 150 pupils, accounting for 10% of the national student population. The Klebersberg principle survived the trials of the twentieth century, including the settlement and country planning and centralizing policies of the 1970s. According to Minister of Education Kunó Klebelsberg (in the 1920s) students should be able to walk to their schools within one hour. • However, if nearly 400 small schools with fewer than 100 students were closed down with the stroke of a pen, referring to economies of scale, 1–2 per cent of the costs could be saved on the macro level, according to the calculations of the National Institute for Public Education (OKI) (Hermann; 2007).
Conclusion II. • The comparison of results from the National Competence Survey by settlement type proves that the differences in parents’ qualifications account for a substantial part of the differences in the efficiency of schools. • Consequently, neither efficiency nor higher expenditures offer grounds for considering the upkeep of schools in small settlements as one of the most serious efficiency problems of public education in Hungary (Hermann, 2007). • The liquidation of small schools that operate within the framework of formal segregation but are efficient may satisfy some politicians; however, it will not influence positively the future role of the people concerned in the labour market - that is, the external efficiency of education and economic activity in the regions will not grow. • A complex impact and efficiency analysis of the programmes carried out so far to bring up disadvantaged groups and areas is necessary, in order to be able to design more effective action plans for the future.
Impact of ageing • 2050: Every 3rd citizen will be 60+ in the EU • Decreasing population of CEE countries Challenges • Financing pension fees on lung run – less tax payer • Changing social services system –social supplies • Designing new services
Seniors’ poverty in Hungary • 2010-2020: mass of middle age population reach the retirement age = 500.000 people The problem is: • Part of them have not payed superannuation tax/pension contribution or • every 3rd employee pay superannuation tax/pension on the basis of minimum salary so they will get the minimum pensioners’ fee, cca. 140 EUR • 1.2 million seniors
Seniors’ poverty in Hungary • There will be 500.000 seniors without pension • There will be 1.3 million seniors from 6 million tax payer who won’t be eligible for pension, because they don’t have enough time in employment and they are not able to reach the minimum time.
Future in Hungary What is needed (plans): • Senior citizens basic pension from age 65 • Have to pay from tax • Senior citizens pension from employed time • ‘Self-catering’ – own savings
Future in Hungary • Social supplies and services • Senior citizens benefit Increasing amount of financial resources to provide minimum • Health security for more senior citizens • Local services • Meals • Care at home • Senior citizens’ homes
Future in Hungary • Designing new services – role of the state? • Attitude change long run • Thinking in future • Bottom up approach • Community care • Communication among generations • To activate senior citizens in their communities • Mutual help • Neighbourhood and group activities
Thank you for your attention! 28. September 2010., Nyíregyháza
